If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[Jrb1979]

Its scary what is happening with the economy and people losing jobs. At the same time they wouldn't have to go this extent if people would understand the social distancing and not go out unless they have to. As all of you have seen a lot of people don't get it. When they said to help flatten the curve to stay home and people didn't do that. They had no other choice.

 

[gotomu212]

People act like it’s the government imposed orders tanking the economy and not consumer behavior. They can say “everything is open tomorrow” and every single person that I work with (all virtually now) and everyone in my family and social circles say there is no way they are going to run out. Yes, as the beaches and parks show, some will but huge segments of the population watch the news and are voluntarily staying home.

Airlines and hotels cut staff not because of government action, but because huge swaths of consumers stopped showing up. Cruise lines are another example- yes there are people on these boards that say they would cruise tomorrow, but can Disney get the 12,000\week to fill capacity to show up? I doubt it.

Even though restaurants in my area still offer takeout and you are free to drive over and get it, they are voluntarily closing because customers are not showing up.

As cases spike and people know friends that die that demand shrinks even more.

 

[Traveling on cc points]

Ok, the difference is they mainly just died. Only 1.5 percent of flu cases are hospitalized. For this virus 20 percent of those that are positive get hospitalized and not just for a day but for a week or more. Then I can't find the figures, maybe someone can, but 1 -2 percent of those infected need ICU with breathing assistance. Then, Covid seems to be much more contagious to medical personnel. I've seen much higher numbers of those treating this virus need to be hospitalized and some have died. This virus affects the entire healthcare system more than the flu. That is the concern. Also, it is looking like many of those that get this illness have lung issues as a consequence.. Whether that function comes back, we do not know. But that is why everyone is so upset about the virus. It is about more than a death rate. If people just died without passing it on to others or requiring such a big amount of resources to treat, it probably would be more like car accidents or the regular flu. Plus, with the flu as others have mentioned, we do have vaccinations for it, so you can DO something to prevent it to a certain extent.

You make some very valid points. I get so annoyed that people keep harping on a mythical death rate. This numbers reported in the US are very skewed because most sick people aren’t being tested unless they are to the point where they need to be hospitalized. The “death rate” percentage would go down dramatically is everyone who was recovering at home were being counted.

 

[Hikergirl]

Google "Dan Patrick coronavirus".

We've already been through this. A poster made a claim that people were saying things they weren't actually saying. Dan Patrick did not say anything about letting gramma die so we can get our wing fix on.

 

[Deploraboo]

What is the denominator? No one knows.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Sure, but if the plan doesn't include the advice of experts like Dr Fauci, then it's probably going to make the economy and public health worse. Just opening everything back up in a week isn't going to do the economy any good.

The stock market will bounce back some - until we are forced to shut it down again, and then it will tank all over again.

 

[Mom2Stitch]

The point with the flu is that it is not overwhelming hospitals all at the same time-the curve is flattened by people who get the shots and the fact that if you get the flu there is a treatment.

Covid has no treatment, there is no shot-yet. Yes the majority of the people who have tested positive recover just fine, possibly without hospital stays. Unfortunately, though there will be more people that will need treatment than we have resources if we don't do something to curb it. " So what if people die"is not a good solution.

If hospitals are so overwhelmed, if the dr's and nurses who care for patients are wiped out from exhaustion or the virus, how will people get the care they need for non-virus related health issues?

 

[choirfarm]

That's what worries me. Are we expected to stay in this "semi lockdown" state until a vaccine is available and out in the public in great numbers? Personally, I don't think we can wait until 2021 to get "back to normal". Do I think it should happen next week? No. But 2021 isn't realistic either.

Yes, we are in a very tough spot with very few answers. Staying locked up until 2021 will cause starvation and probable violence. I do not know what the answer is. If we relax, the medical consequences will probably keep the economy from functioning anyway. I don't think if we just release the economy will just jump back to normal. This has caused a fundamental shift that I am not sure what an economy getting back to normal looks like. It isn't an either or. It is bad. We are Odysseus between scylla and charybdis.

 

[Hikergirl]

Sure, but if the plan doesn't include the advice of experts like Dr Fauci, then it's probably going to make the economy and public health worse. Just opening everything back up in a week isn't going to do the economy any good.

Unless you are sitting in on those meetings you have no idea what advice is included. For all we know it includes medical experts and economists.

State Governors will be making decisions about their own States. If anyone has an issue then take it up with them, write to them. Do it now so they know where their people stand.

 

[Deploraboo]

They need to build coronavirus treatment hospitals and deal with it that way. Probably why they are retrofitting convention centers and stadiums. Not pretty but we cannot shut down the economy because x% of 80 year olds succumb. Hard truth.

 

[NJlauren]

Its great that you aren't concerned with the economy, but the reality is if we let people be out of work for long periods of time, and people are struggling and there is little help for them ($1000 or even $1500 isn't going to pay peoples rent or mortgage, and put food on the table if they are out of work for months). People are going to get desperate, and crime is going to go up, and its going to get bad and quick. We have maybe 45 more days (of this level of isolation in my area) IMO before things take a turn.

The real problem is if our health care system was at least somewhat prepared for this maybe we wouldn't be in this spot. If we had a way to get gear for everyone who needed, it ventilators, enough beds... you know n a system where we all had good health care options available to us.

Also the current rate of hospitalization is 20%, however its is probably much lower, i personally know at least 3 people who have been told you probably have it but we cant test you because you don't currently need hospitalization, and we don't have enough tests. So that lowers the hospitalization rate.

wow apparently i had a lot to say on the topic.

 

[RamblingMad]

That's what worries me. Are we expected to stay in this "semi lockdown" state until a vaccine is available and out in the public in great numbers? Personally, I don't think we can wait until 2021 to get "back to normal". Do I think it should happen next week? No. But 2021 isn't realistic either.

I think we can lockdown parts of the country instead of all of it if we cut off domestic travel to and from areas under quarantine. Like I’m not going to NYC any time soon. But I might want to go to Idaho.

 

[Farro]

That's what worries me. Are we expected to stay in this "semi lockdown" state until a vaccine is available and out in the public in great numbers? Personally, I don't think we can wait until 2021 to get "back to normal". Do I think it should happen next week? No. But 2021 isn't realistic either.

That was never the plan. The plan was to spread out the illnesses as to not overwhelm hospitals, not wait for a vaccine. That's still the plan and not unreasonable to think can go on until May/June.

Somehow the narrative has changed - not by the doctors in charge but rather regular people on social media.
How many times I've said - Dr. Fauci said this virus should behave like other viruses (and he expects it will), and most will develop immunity and not be reinfected or get mild infections and the next season's wave should be more moderate in nature.

 

[Deploraboo]

I work in NYC. Guarantee you when this is lifted people will be like, no thanks I’m continuing to be working from home.

 

[NJlauren]

I work in NYC. Guarantee you when this is lifted people will be like, no thanks I’m continuing to be working from home.

Not i, i am counting the minutes till i can safely get back to my office.

 

[chicagoshannon]

The plan is to have things open by Easter. What that looks like exactly is yet to be seen.

 

[Hikergirl]

I don't think Cuomo is going to lift anything even if the Feds say it's OK to do so.
If he does then he better lock down NYC, nobody out or in, we don't want more of it upstate.

 

[choirfarm]

They need to build coronavirus treatment hospitals and deal with it that way. Probably why they are retrofitting convention centers and stadiums. Not pretty but we cannot shut down the economy because x% of 80 year olds succumb. Hard truth.

Oh, my goodness you are so misinformed. Of the 199 cases in Texas at the time on this report, only 1 might have been 80.
https://abc13.com/5999764/
This is not just an elderly disease.

 

[Deploraboo]

NJLauren, see you on Morris/Essex line. I’ll be the guy in the hazmat suit.

 

[Hikergirl]

Oh, my goodness you are so misinformed. Of the 199 cases in Texas at the time on this report, only 1 might have been 80.
https://abc13.com/5999764/
This is not just an elderly disease.

They are the most at risk of succumbing ( as in dying) though. That is probably what the poster meant