If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[gwynne]

Agreed. This isn't just about 80yo people, but all of us.

think what people need to say (instead of "its just X% or 80yos) is I am willing to die to save the economy, or I'm willing to see my child die alone to save the economy. How many people are willing to say that? Because I might be 47, but it could just as likely be me as it could be you. People die in all 'age brackets.' And more die when we overwhelm the systems in place.

Agreed. We aren't going to make anything better with panic and jumping from one solution to another. We need to make a plan and stick with the plan. And we need to try out best to think about others and help support others so that maybe, just maybe we come out of the other side with as many survivors (individuals and businesses alike) as possible.



I work for a hospital. No one is overwhelming them with a cough. They are only treating the worst of the worst. They have a telehealth center to manage and monitor the rest. Our covid patients who are there, are there because they need to be, they are receiving supportive measures to try to help them survive.


I know two people personally who are fighting for their lives right now. My cousin who's 55, a single father to a preteen and young teen (his wife passed away last year). And my boss's husband who is 47 and father to a 9yo and 12yo. Obviously they were going to have a bad response to this virus, no changing that unless they had managed to avoid it until a vaccine was available. But I'm certainly glad the hospitals have a vent available for them to give them a fighting chance.
I just can't imagine the tragedy of those who could die due to lack of care if we overwhelm the hospitals with people who need critical care.

I read your post through a couple of times. You explain the current situation well. No easy, quick solutions, this is a very difficult, emergency situation.

I really don't know why so many cling to the belief that only the 80 year olds become seriously ill. It's just not true, as you know.

This must be such frightening time for your cousin and your bosses husband and their families.
I hope both gradually recover. The staff caring for these very ill patients are working so hard. I pray we can all work together so our hospitals and ICU's are not overwhelmed.
You must be incredibly busy too. Every department of our hospitals have all they can handle these days. Sending good thoughts, and a hug your way.

 

[MillauFr]

I don't understand how LEOs are expected to enforce these orders.All a person would have to tell the officer is that they are on their way to the grocery store or some allowed business. How could the officer prove otherwise?

Yep. In Seattle they don't enforce much. If they don't enforce shoplifting, drug use, or property crimes how they give tickets to citizens walking around outside minding their own business?

 

[kaytieeldr]

Wow, that is an amazing use of copy and paste.

Thank you. I chose that https://www.thefreedictionary.com/hyperbole because it provided the most definitions in a quick search.

 

[MillauFr]

What's an unacceptable number?

40,000 people killed in car accidents is completely unacceptable to me. We could easily cut that number in half we decided to take driving seriously as a society.

 

[erc]

What's an unacceptable number? How many people need to die, say, in the next week before you would say "hey maybe we should do something?" Just wondering where you draw that line. One week ago, we had 7103 deaths world wide, increasing at a rate of about 600 per day. Today, we have 16,365, increasing at a rate of 1764. Continued at that trajectory (more than 20% increase in deaths per day) means that by next Tuesday, we might add 27,340 (for a total of 43,600). Let's go another week, since you probably say that's acceptable. In another week, we ADD another almost 100,000 (assuming the rate of increase in deaths....20% doesn't accelerate, as it in fact has, rather significantly, in the last week). So, now we're at 143,000 dead people, with families and lives. I could keep going. I'm just wondering what YOUR number is of "acceptable" levels of death? Anything? Millions? All the experts I've heard say we can't expect a "peak" in this country till the end of April. That's 6 weeks away. And, that assumes we continue social distancing.

Funny all these questions when I mentioned that child deaths were acceptable to people with H1N1. Where were you then? Why do you hold deaths of the elderly more worthy than deaths of the young?

 

[gotomu212]

We need to realize that the only reason it has gotten to where we are today is because of the fatality rate among the elderly. H1N1 was strangely more deadly to kids and young adults yet we didn't shut everything down. So there is obviously a certain metric of death where we just don't care.

H1N1 killed 75k Americans (about twice a elevated seasonal flu year) medical experts believe this is 10x worse than the seasonal flu and thats with the assumption that rates don’t increase with hospitals overwhelmed. These are very different illnesses.

 

[erc]

40,000 people killed in car accidents is completely unacceptable to me. We could easily cut that number in half we decided to take driving seriously as a society.

I agree. Preventable deaths are needless deaths. Deaths by disease are tough to prevent. For some reason we stick to insane 12 month vaccine testing regulations in the midst of a crisis. In the future on Star Trek they isolate a disease come up with the vaccine and start inoculating all within a one hour episode. That is where we need to be.

But also, we need to get over this idea that we are somehow special as a living species. We are parasites on this planet, and nature has a plan for parasites.

 

[erc]

H1N1 killed 75k Americans (about twice a elevated seasonal flu year) medical experts believe this is 10x worse than the seasonal flu and thats with the assumption that rates don’t increase with hospitals overwhelmed. These are very different illnesses.

Man, 75K dead. And to think we have 700 now.

 

[EveDallas]

Please forgive my ignorance on this, but isn’t there welfare or state health insurance that is available to people without income? I know my BIL hasn’t worked in years and his family is covered by state health insurance.

I’m not exactly sure what GS stands for so maybe you aren’t talking about the US. Or maybe it’s different in each state. I’ve never used welfare benefits so not sure how it works.

In many states, there is no state insurance for healthy adults.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

My previous post may have been able to save you the time from posting this because I specifically wrote there is never 100% agreement.

There’s a saying in management, “If two people agree all the time on every discussion, then one is dispensable.”

No I read that post

Doing what we are doing is the logical choice right now for the moment. Theoretically, you make the vector static, then the pathogen dies off. This was already proven in a small town in Italy. And what China did to Wuhan. Obviously, it’s harder on a larger scale (as we are seeing) unless and there needs to be 100% buy in (or enforcement).

The way I see it is, to avoid a V-shape, we’re going to have to do a shutdown until we see a sustained reduction in incidence. One week of continuous decreasing incidence will provide confidence that we can conduct a controlled relaxing of restrictions. May seem arbitrary, but one week is sufficient to show that any unexpected drop is not due to testing capacity limitations. Also, a week gives us a better idea of how much hospitalization is to be expected since the inpatient count lags the new case count by about a week.

Right now, our incidence is growing unabated. So, it’s hard to tell when we can turn the faucet back on slowly. Otherwise, we’d be in a world of trouble as it stands. So, realistically, no one can say whether we loosen restrictions in 2 weeks, 3, 4, 5, 2 months, or longer.

Maybe someone who’s able to speak Corona language can ask Sarscov when it plans to go into hibernation.

None of this changes my comment no? regarding us not knowing if this is all working? I don't know personally speaking if it's a logical step or not truly because we've never been in this situation. I'm cautiously optimistic though

In many respects the numbers are not going to give a full picture as selective testing and lack of abundance testing is skewing numbers. And the numbers will continue to be skewed as selective testing continues. If the incubation period was much shorter and tests much faster in response (which I know they are working on it) we would be in a better picture to know if any given measure has really worked. So far it's been a rapid progression without enough time to fully investigate how any measures are effectively working here in the U.S. (note in the U.S.).

 

[Praying Colonel]

Man, 75K dead. And to think we have 700 now.

Wait 3 days or so--it'll double. And again. And again. Etc.

3/11: 38 U.S. deaths.
3/14: 57 U.S. deaths.
3/17: 109 U.S. deaths.
3/20: 256 U.S. deaths.
3/23: 553 U.S. deaths.

Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
This is 10 times deadlier than the flu. Many hospitals around the world are deciding not to treat people who are above a certain age or have certain underlying health factors. I'd rather avoid that if possible.

 

[erc]

Wait 3 days or so--it'll double. And again. And again. Etc.

3/11: 38 U.S. deaths.
3/14: 57 U.S. deaths.
3/17: 109 U.S. deaths.
3/20: 256 U.S. deaths.
3/23: 553 U.S. deaths.

Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
This is 10 times deadlier than the flu. Many hospitals around the world are deciding not to treat people who are above a certain age or have certain underlying health factors. I'd rather avoid that if possible.

I have no doubt it will increase. But again, do we think we are special?

 

[Colleen27]

Please forgive my ignorance on this, but isn’t there welfare or state health insurance that is available to people without income? I know my BIL hasn’t worked in years and his family is covered by state health insurance.

Depends on the state. Some expanded medicaid under the ACA, some didn't. And some that have expanded it have since imposed work requirements to remain eligible. I'm not sure what the status of those requirements is. I know the last relief bill that passed suspended SNAP work requirements for the duration, so I would hope the same is being done with medicaid work requirements.

However... the application process for those benefits isn't exactly speedy even when everything is working as normal. I think in my state they have 30 days to make a determination and you have to be available for an interview during that time. I can't imagine they're processing things even that quickly now, since the county offices are closed and most of the automated systems are overwhelmed. It took my son two days to be able to create a log on to apply for unemployment because the site kept timing out.

 

[Praying Colonel]

I have no doubt it will increase. But again, do we think we are special?

I have no idea what that means or what kind of argument that is, other than a strawman. Good luck to you.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

H1N1 killed 75k Americans (about twice a elevated seasonal flu year) medical experts believe this is 10x worse than the seasonal flu and thats with the assumption that rates don’t increase with hospitals overwhelmed. These are very different illnesses.

Where are you getting 75k?

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

40,000 people killed in car accidents is completely unacceptable to me. We could easily cut that number in half we decided to take driving seriously as a society.

I bet we could cut it in half by just adopting stronger work from home policies. Might be interesting to look at the data for these states on "lockdown" after this is over.

 

[Heather07438]

https://theconversation.com/coronav...ic-can-tell-us-about-the-weeks-to-come-134076
This was an interesting read. There are no easy answers.

 

[sam_gordon]

I heard that people are going to need to carry essential work certification to be out and about and away from their local area.

I already have mine. It was handed out company wide and we have locations across the country. I'm surprised it hasn't shown up online yet (I haven't looked for it, so it might be out there). There is actually nothing in it particular to a state, much less a city, company, or job.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

***These are one of the tough spots I think as areas do things differently, below is descriptions of the differences for these two points***

My area has started pulling a few people over to see where they are going and if they really need to be out.

Doesn't look like they're issuing tickets or anything yet, probably more just putting procedures in place to get everyone used to it before it becomes absolutely crucial. I'd say most activity and traffic is down by 75% in northeastern NJ.

I can't say never here but this is the response from my local PD:

"The ____ Police Department, as well as many other local jurisdictions, trusts that the community will comply with the current Emergency Health Order as we all do our part to try to "flatten the curve" and protect those at risk from this virus. The _____ Police Department will not be conducting traffic stops based on the status of your travels. Law Enforcement will be taking a reasonable stance with a priority to educate the public. Thank you all for doing your part to help eradicate the spread of this viral threat by remaining at home unless you have a dire need to travel! We intentionally have not released Frequently Asked Questions sheets to keep it simple...911 for emergencies, XXX-XXX-XXX for non-emergencies. More information can be found at the city's resource page for Covid-19 posted below."

TBH they have better things to worry about than stopping people for now at least. Like I mentioned in my other comment (was it on this thread? IDK) they are more interested in the businesses who don't comply. However, sure if there's a bunch of people out and about in droves, yes I can see them adjusting their stance. We're only day 1 of 30 for stay at home (so plenty of time for people to disobey) but we've had other things prior to this so at least it's not zero to 100 even if all the other things have been done in such a short time.

I heard that people are going to need to carry essential work certification to be out and about and away from their local area.

My thinking is that they're trying to get people acclimated step by step before these restrictions and more become fully necessary. My area estimated that in 2 or 3 weeks the crazy numbers will start coming. If that does happen (likely), then we're in for even tougher restrictions.

This is for my County at least:
"As an essential worker, do I need an official letter or badge showing that I am allowed to go to work or be outside my home?

No.

Badges and letters are not needed. It’s not our intent at this time for people to be cited by law enforcement as they move around the county or metro. We want to assume people’s good intention that they will follow the order and will be out of their homes for permitted reasons. We do encourage people to stay at home unless they need to perform an essential service or have a job with an essential service or business that cannot be done from home. We encourage everyone who can to work from home and encourage businesses to allow for that as much as possible."


______________
There is something to be said for length of time. I can see more antsy behavior at least mid-way through to 3/4th of the way through our 30-day stay at home but I'm hoping people do more outside nature related activities as the weather warms up rather than go to one of the places you're allowed to go to. It's something to keep an eye on for sure.

I think for them it's easier to go in with an approach of hands off honor system so they aren't exhausting LEO on this and have them focus instead on normal everyday matters. I do leave it open to the real possibility of them changing such approaches in my area should the present more hands off/honor system approach not prove to be viable.

 

[Colleen27]

TBH they have better things to worry about than stopping people for now at least. Like I mentioned in my other comment (was it on this thread? IDK) they are more interested in the businesses who don't comply. However, sure if there's a bunch of people out and about in droves, yes I can see them adjusting their stance. We're only day 1 of 30 for stay at home (so plenty of time for people to disobey) but we've had other things prior to this so at least it's not zero to 100 even if all the other things have been done in such a short time.

That's what I'm hearing is going to be the focus here too. Not stopping individuals to see where they're going - the exceptions to the stay at home order are broad enough to make that a pointless exercise anyway - but rather making sure businesses that have been reluctant to comply with earlier, toothless closure orders don't continue to stay open in defiance of the lockdown. Our stay at home order exempts caregiving duties and outdoor activities where distancing can be observed, so it would be 100% impossible for police to determine based on a traffic stop if you are or are not in violation of the order - they'd have no way of knowing if I'm telling the truth when I say I'm going to check on my mother, who is a senior citizen living alone, or heading to a trailhead for a hike. But they've set up a hotline where employees can anonymously report their employers for violating the closure of non-essential businesses, and companies will face fines if they're found to be ignoring the lockdown.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

That's what I'm hearing is going to be the focus here too. Not stopping individuals to see where they're going - the exceptions to the stay at home order are broad enough to make that a pointless exercise anyway - but rather making sure businesses that have been reluctant to comply with earlier, toothless closure orders don't continue to stay open in defiance of the lockdown. Our stay at home order exempts caregiving duties and outdoor activities where distancing can be observed, so it would be 100% impossible for police to determine based on a traffic stop if you are or are not in violation of the order - they'd have no way of knowing if I'm telling the truth when I say I'm going to check on my mother, who is a senior citizen living alone, or heading to a trailhead for a hike. But they've set up a hotline where employees can anonymously report their employers for violating the closure of non-essential businesses, and companies will face fines if they're found to be ignoring the lockdown.

Yes sounds very similar.

I don't think they've done the hotline here (though that's a great idea) but:

If you're at work it's: "contact your company Human Resources or Legal Departments."

If you're a citizen concerned about a business then its: "contact your municipal police department." and they give a list of appropriate numbers for each police department. They said the enforcement there is "Law enforcement’s first step is notifying the business about the order to allow for compliance. Violating an order of the public health officer can result in a misdemeanor charge."

Your hiking example is one of the reasons I think they don't want to have to ask for proof or stop people on the sole basis of checking if they are going to somewhere essential or not because they are keeping all the public parks open (caveat is you still practice social distancing) for now but usage of playground equipment is strongly discouraged (understandably so). Tomorrow is supposed to be a glorious day of mostly sunny and nearly 70 so we'll def. be getting out I'm thinking a picnic would be nice