Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bigredbeta]

Here is the list of average resale prices for https://www.dvcresalemarket.com.

View attachment 482372

late to this thread, where did you get that chart? Can't seem to find it on the DVC Resale Market site

 

[Brianstl]

late to this thread, where did you get that chart? Can't seem to find it on the DVC Resale Market site

It is on their blog page. Here is the link https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2020/

 

[sky2823]

I think our country will be back on track by May.

My biggest fear coming out of all this, stay with me, is that Disney’s weakening stock price causes them to get acquired by Apple, Amazon or Google. This is being speculated about already with Apple. The next logical step would be for that company to spin off the parks and hospitality to its own entity... Apple doesn’t want to own cruise ships and hotels it wants “content. Breaking up Disney would have a dramatic impact on “culture” and feel of the parks In the future.

 

[ELMC]

What leads you to think that this will have a longer term impact on growth than the combined impact of the Spanish Flu and WW1 did?

I don't. I already thought we were heading into a huge crash and then ten years of stagnation in the markets without any of this. What we're going through now just accelerated and likely accentuated the process. But that is probably a conversation for a different thread on a different forum.

The point is that we've seen what a struggling economy does to DVC prices. Now we are likely to see it again, with the added variable that a lot of these contracts are quickly approaching expiration.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

I think our country will be back on track by May.

My biggest fear coming out of all this, stay with me, is that Disney’s weakening stock price causes them to get acquired by Apple, Amazon or Google. This is being speculated about already with Apple. The next logical step would be for that company to spin off the parks and hospitality to its own entity... Apple doesn’t want to own cruise ships and hotels it wants “content. Breaking up Disney would have a dramatic impact on “culture” and feel of the parks In the future.

I was actually thinking June but i have the same fear of Disney being acquired by Apple. I didn’t even think about google or amazon but they could do it too.

 

[rkstocke5609]

I don't. I already thought we were heading into a huge crash and then ten years of stagnation in the markets without any of this. What we're going through now just accelerated and likely accentuated the process. But that is probably a conversation for a different thread on a different forum.

The point is that we've seen what a struggling economy does to DVC prices. Now we are likely to see it again, with the added variable that a lot of these contracts are quickly approaching expiration.

Quickly approaching expiration? The average person is part of the full time work force for about 50 years (18-68). So, to me 20 years is 40% of one’s work life. That’s still a long time to me....

But, compared to newer contracts I guess it isn’t. Still, I wonder what the average length of DVC ownership actually is....

 

[bookwormde]

3/24 data

new listing were back up to somewhat above average number

Asking averages

AKV continues at 108

CCV is about 152 with the majority below 100 pts

OKW is at 100

Poly is at 138 but has a wide variation

SSR is 106


Where it appears that sale pending number represent actual sale price OKW is in the mid 90s with low of 82, SSR is below 100 and poly is falling into the 130s

 

[Deploraboo]

This is a fairly illiquid market so true price discovery is difficult.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

Does anyone have historical resale prices going back to 2010 or earlier? Farthest back in can find is 2012. I am trying to see how much prices dropped versus were already low priced because DVC was way cheaper before 2014 or so.

 

[MICKIMINI]

We paid $62 for OKW in 1996. Disney used to pay closing costs and even paid for our resort stay in 1996. In 2000 we bought Wilderness (now BRV) for around $70. I think we paid around $80 for SSR in 2008. This is all from memory so don't take it to the bank.

 

[sky2823]

Sorry I haven’t been paying attention.

Why does poly seem to be going lower on resale the the rest of the class?

 

[bookwormde]

Sorry I haven’t been paying attention.

Why does poly seem to be going lower on resale the the rest of the class?

resales for Poly were already soft so they are likely the proverbial canary in the coal mine

 

[MICKIMINI]

Could Poly decrease be related to demographics? I can't remember when sales opened up, but if the average age of a DVC purchase is say 40 yr old (I'm sure someone has the age) and it is x number of years past the bulk of the sales - buyers are now ? years old? Just a guess that quite a few of those folks may have big mortgages, kids in college, etc. and have been listing their contracts. Total speculation on my part...

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

Could Poly decrease be related to demographics? I can't remember when sales opened up, but if the average age of a DVC purchase is say 40 yr old (I'm sure someone has the age) and it is x number of years past the bulk of the sales - buyers are now ? years old? Just a guess that quite a few of those folks may have big mortgages, kids in college, etc. and have been listing their contracts. Total speculation on my part...

I do think that could matter. I wonder what the typical age is. If it is 40 they could have teens or their kids could be 5 or younger. Then as they get older circumstances change. Additionally I think as the family gets older they much prefer having a 1 bedroom or larger room. A studio may work for people with toddlers, but by the time they are preteens and teenagers they want more space. We rented at the poly and found it incredible. Except when we thought long and hard about purchasing realized we really wanted the extra space of a 1 bedroom. So we bought at BLT. I also wonder if a lot of people buy in thinking a cheap studio will be all they ever need. Then begin to realize they want to stay in 1 bedrooms. Other resorts you can just buy more points. Poly doesn't have that option.

 

[striker1064]

Sorry I haven’t been paying attention.

Why does poly seem to be going lower on resale the the rest of the class?

Probably a few reasons for this. Poly is all studios plus a few bungalows, so there are likely at least some buyers who thought they would be fine with only a large studio, only to find they prefer a 1 bedroom or 2 bedroom (and the bungalows are far too point-expensive to be worth it on a regular basis). Further, Disney almost never exercises ROFR on a resort that is either in active sales or within a few years of it selling out. I am not aware of a single Poly contract that has had ROFR exercised (although that doesn't mean it hasn't happened). The large supply of points available plus no ROFR has caused resale prices to drop a bit. Who knows where Poly will settle, or (even more curiously) what Disney's price floor might be before they start buying it back. Although Disney doesn't use ROFR to maintain a price floor, it definitely has an effect.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

Could Poly decrease be related to demographics? I can't remember when sales opened up, but if the average age of a DVC purchase is say 40 yr old (I'm sure someone has the age) and it is x number of years past the bulk of the sales - buyers are now ? years old? Just a guess that quite a few of those folks may have big mortgages, kids in college, etc. and have been listing their contracts. Total speculation on my part...

If I remember correctly Poly sales started in 2015.
I know VGF started in spring of 2013 and took about 2.5 years to sell out.

I think its also could have to do with the sheer number of contracts crossed with their being only one room type

 

[Matty B13]

resales for Poly were already soft so they are likely the proverbial canary in the coal mine

There are probably a lot of first time buyers who fell in love with the Poly, and financed a DVC purchase and are now having a hard time coming up with the payments. I think this happens at a lot of resort in the first few years after they sell out. You can kinda tell if the contract is loaded or not, because the owner couldn't afford to make that second or third trip after they first purchased. I think I picked up 2 loaded contract because of this in 2016.

 

[wallawallakids]

I think you hit the nail on the head. A lot of families are priced out by Poly. I would love to stay there but the shear number of points needed for a bungalow means it would never happen. Lots of people do love studios but once you add children- or grandchildren to the mix, a 1 or 2 bedroom with a washer and dryer is worth it’s weight in gold. You can’t beat it and the full kitchen/ extra bath. The fact the only other option is an expensive bungalow means fewer buyers fit the demographic.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

There are probably a lot of first time buyers who fell in love with the Poly, and financed a DVC purchase and are now having a hard time coming up with the payments. I think this happens at a lot of resort in the first few years after they sell out. You can kinda tell if the contract is loaded or not, because the owner couldn't afford to make that second or third trip after they first purchased. I think I picked up 2 loaded contract because of this in 2016.

Poly was also a totally unique animal in DVC - it was the first resort in which the actual resort that had always been there was made part of DVC, and was old enough to really hit people nostalgically.
Yes, they did it with Jambo House, but the people who were older, with enough $ to buy were too old to have gone there as children and have that nostalgia for it. BLT is at the contemporary, but it is not THE Contemporary.

Poly hit the sweet spot perfectly. Which further leads to your point...it got a lot of nostalgic buys

 

[Matty B13]

Poly hit the sweet spot perfectly. Which further leads to your point...it got a lot of nostalgic buys

Didn't stay as a kid back in the 80's, but in 2015 we stayed at Poly for a huge family trip and fell in love with the resort, would have bought in if it even had a 1 bedroom option, but since we are a family of 5 and wanted separate rooms for the kids it wasn't in the cards for us. But we always walk over from VGF to do at least 1 meal there and walk through the lobby.

Wish we could have stayed there back in the 80's, sounds like the place was a lot more serene with a lot more landscaping.