I'm booked for a trip 3rd week of August, still confident this trip will happen. And I've just received an e-mail from Touringplans about increased crowd level predictions. On several days DCA has been increased from 6 to 8 for 3 out of 5 days. DL only changes 1 point and goes from 3 to 4.
Now, I read crowd calendars like I read horoscopes, it's not an exact science.
But I think even Touringplans must be able to come to the conclusion that the rest of the year could go all directions when the parks reopen. Either it's going to be:
1. super quiet because people are still cautious or because people have lost their jobs etc. and need to save money.
2. super busy because everyone who still has money needs a vacation,
3. normal for the time of year because the 1st and 2nd group cancel each other out.
Either way, if Touringplans would make a change to their predictions, then all days for all parks should follow one of the 3 options, or am I missing something?
First don’t trust any crowd predictions for DL... often they are even the exact opposite because many locals make assumptions based on them...
Touringplan probably has a crazy math program to make the numbers more “random” so it’s not the same number everyday and looks more professional...
I don’t think anyone can make a reasonable assumption on crowd levels at the moment because there is just so much unknown with the crisis...
Important factors I can think of: how long does the shutdown take, how much money is lost there for how many people, any restrictions still in place, any discounts for hotels and most important airfare and social/ economic impact...
Locals with AP will be in the park no matter what just to be back...
APs from further away will try to make trips happen especially if there are cheap flights/ discounts for hotels...
International visitors: depends if global travel is possible and easily done and how expensive impromptu trips might me...
But of course for many people a trip to
Disneyland will be impossible that soon after the crisis...(money/ health /education/ job)
My wild guess would be a pretty normal crowd level for that timeframe... (given that Disneyland opens at least 1 month prior...and has regular operation in place)
I think you can make more accurate guesses 60 days out...