It's been estimated that resale points represent less than 15% of all points in the system. Take into account the number of resale points that are bought prior to January 19, 2019, and the actual number of restricted resale points in circulation that would decrease competition against you at 7-months become insignificant.
Fast forward 30 years, will that be different? Maybe. But you know who does benefit from the resale restrictions from day 1? The Developer. Full stop.
If anything, resale restrictions will also ensure future resale owners will book at home, actually working against your ability to book there at 7-months.
Some things that materially affect your 7-month booking:
- Disney knowingly overselling studio usage against GVs, Bungalows, and Cabins.
- Disney happily financing anyone while constantly raising the buy-in cost
- Years and years of Disney's willingness to lower the member buy in and sell small contracts for those bigger dollars to more members.
- The interwebs; a more informed ownership is booking at 11-months.
- The interwebs part 2; people buying where they want to stay.
- SSR by virtue of its size (not a resale-only problem).
Every year, the share of breakage that goes back to members reaches its maximum 2.5% of cap res/operating budget. Any additional breakage will only benefit the Developer.
There would be no additional benefit to owners unless Disney decides to raise that 2.5% cap which, again, they have maxed every year. The resale restrictions would suggest owner-interest isn't high on their priorities list.
Resale restrictions are there to serve the Developer and the Developer only. Owners can choose to not care about the resale restrictions because it doesn't affect them personally, or that the pros of a new resort outweigh the cons, but it's a stretch to come up with logical reasons how the restrictions are a benefit to owners.
When the Developer opens a Yacht Club Villa, my family will be first in line to buy with or without restrictions, but I have no illusions that those restrictions will be there to serve my family's interest.
@5th gate dreamers illustrates quite vividly how Disney's resale restrictions have to appeal to base emotional justifications to make any sense. Emotions have to drive, relegating logic to the back seat, for an owner to cheerlead these restrictions.