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Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

Looks like my last post got deleted because I quoted a post that got deleted. No problem - I found the link I had alluded to. I OPTIMISTICALLY think this is where we are headed. Orange County and Disney have a healthy (pun intended) working relationship.
Disney Adopts COUNTY Health Measures After Review
If it is up to the COUNTY to enforce the closure, well, it's clear that won't happen. Today's court findings will be interesting for sure...
 
Are you asking about the AP refund or a refund for a package/hotel reservation?

AP refunds. We paid in full for flex passes that would have expired at the end of May so we don’t have a ton of time that we missed on . I was just holding out for the extension but now that it seems much farther away, I’m re-thinking that.
 
All I know is I saw speculation about how Disney could funnel money away from DLR to improvements at WDW for their 50th anniversary next summer and my reaction was: 'Noooooooooo!'

But.... we could see that happen with DLR projects being further delayed as Disney puts their eggs in the 'WDW basket' so to speak.
The two are separate, but there is no question that the latest TRON construction delay is most definitely tied to the DL/DCA closure. It goes both ways...
 
San Francisco is such a unique county. The majority of people working there, live outside the county. So if they do get SARS-CoV-2, it is reported in another county. It is a very poor choice for comparison.
There is also Alameda County to compare with--it includes Oakland and has done very well. My last post about this was deleted so I will avoid the why, but if you look at the most recent data we are doing very well and moved to orange last week. We appeared to actually be in yellow this most recent week, but I think the adjustment kept us in orange. Here is the link: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID19CountyMonitoringOverview.aspx You then hit" "California Blueprint Data Chart," which gives you the excel download.
 


AP refunds. We paid in full for flex passes that would have expired at the end of May so we don’t have a ton of time that we missed on . I was just holding out for the extension but now that it seems much farther away, I’m re-thinking that.
Those are not being issued right away. People are still waiting on refunds on the wdw end.
 
I am in Santa Clara County (right next to Alameda County) and we are in orange too. A few of the other Bay Area Counties are getting close to orange too. I think Contra Costa and San Mateo Counties could be Orange next Tuesdays if their number stay the same.
 


Colleges and their spikes when reopening are the primary drivers in our county. They flatten out but the damage is done and enough to keep us from progressing forward. Our saving grace is the actual spike in testing and credit for that spike. Otherwise, we'd be in Purple again.

Bay Area does have benefit of this -- large swath of working population have jobs compatible to telework.
 
People asking about guidelines changing - they can and do change. In the same press conference with the theme park guidelines, they adjusted the personal care service guidelines to allow them to reopen in any tier (with restrictions for safety measures). I could see the state watching what is happening with the numbers and if things are going well, even if they aren't all the way in Yellow tier yet, they could adjust parks to open in Orange.
 
[Mod edit: This post is responding to the question of how well Disney and DLR will fare in the future.]

Maybe Disney will -- but DLR -- who knows -- this is first time in history ever extended closure beyond a few days. Now entering 7 months and probably longer beyond its own control.

Adapt or perish is the rule of business. California Gov finally laid out the rules to play. Up to Disney to find a creative way forward or roll over.

Knotts and Seaworld are being creative. Disney needs to do the same. --- super food and wine festival in the future I see.
 
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Random thoughts in no particular order:

Instead, I'm now going to consider a Universal Studios Orlando trip instead. Right now, they have packages for ~$1900 for the 3 of us (ODD won't be going, assuming that her choir trip to England is still on) to stay 5 nights at a USO on site hotel + Universal park tickets. And it would fall over YDD's birthday (she's turning 13!).
  1. THIS WHOLE THING REALLY SUCKS!

Yes. Yes, it does suck. But we just went to USO on a great deal like that for 7 night, 5 people at Cabana Bay. We LOVED it! My Harry Potter fan-kids thought it was great. They have a lot of great rides, lots of good restaurants at CityWalk, and Volcano Bay is the best water park I've ever done. Don't even hesitate...

...
 
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[Mod edit: This post is responding to the question of cancelling all APs.]

I don't know about that. To cancel all of the existing APs would require a lot of money for refunds - money Disney isn't really wanting to give up right now! I think they will just keep extending like they currently are. So you could end up with a valid AP for 2 years (though you wouldn't be able to actually use it for a year).

I'm a premier AP and my current pass was supposed to expire in the beginning of April, but it continues to be extended for use at WDW. I have a trip planned in March 2021, and at this point, I will probably be able to still use that pass.
 
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I have a trip planned in March 2021, and at this point, I will probably be able to still use that pass.

When did you buy the PAP? Are you getting more than 12 months of WDW admission? As a CPA this makes me curious about how they account for the revenue from annual passes - especially the Premier APs!

Yesterday, I was very down in the dumps, but today I'm more hopeful. They guidelines have to change at some point. Either Newsom will have a legal fight or the political/economic pressure will be too great. Regardless, I'm getting on a flight in two weeks to go to WDW and there are no travel or quarantine restrictions to stop me. The whole thing is very confusing.
 
I don't know about that. To cancel all of the existing APs would require a lot of money for refunds - money Disney isn't really wanting to give up right now! I think they will just keep extending like they currently are. So you could end up with a valid AP for 2 years (though you wouldn't be able to actually use it for a year).

I'm a premier AP and my current pass was supposed to expire in the beginning of April, but it continues to be extended for use at WDW. I have a trip planned in March 2021, and at this point, I will probably be able to still use that pass.

Same here. Premier Passholder. Mine expired late March (about 2 weeks in). And at this rate, I will get my early March trip on that pass too. Right now, it shows extended to 11/23, but in a few weeks, it will extend out another month. I am seriously wondering with the announcement yesterday how long they will let this extending of the pass go on. I have not yet purchased tickets for March since I was not sure when Disneyland would open and if there would be any chance for me to renew or if I should look at a DVC Gold AP.
 
When did you buy the PAP? Are you getting more than 12 months of WDW admission? As a CPA this makes me curious about how they account for the revenue from annual passes - especially the Premier APs!
I got the premier pass last spring (2019). Used it for 3 planned WDW trips, with my last one about a week before the closures happened. It got extended with the WDW AP extensions (I think an extra 1-2 months; I wasn't keeping as close a track). And before it would expire, I got an email that they would be extending it month by month so I could continue to use it at WDW while DLR is closed. So as of now, it has been good for about 19 months and counting. I could have used it at WDW this summer/fall, but I didn't have the chance to fly out there. The current word from Disney is the full pass will continue to be extended until DLR reopens, plus, I assume, any additional extensions they give to DL APs. Of course, they could also change course and split the WDW and DLR sides so the WDW expires first, but it seems like that would cause more headaches for dealing with the relatively small number of people with Premier than it would cause savings (and to be fair - a Premier AP who still has a valid pass is more likely to plan a trip to WDW and bring in additional revenue than one who has an expired pass).

As for revenue, the cost of the pass does get split between DLR and WDW. So you end up paying tax on the WDW portion but not on the DL side, and if you are a SoCal resident, you still have the option of paying monthly on the DL side. I'm sure there are lots of little intricacies with this pass in the computer systems (since the two resorts have different systems)!
 
When did you buy the PAP? Are you getting more than 12 months of WDW admission? As a CPA this makes me curious about how they account for the revenue from annual passes - especially the Premier APs!

Yesterday, I was very down in the dumps, but today I'm more hopeful. They guidelines have to change at some point. Either Newsom will have a legal fight or the political/economic pressure will be too great. Regardless, I'm getting on a flight in two weeks to go to WDW and there are no travel or quarantine restrictions to stop me. The whole thing is very confusing.

I found out here (never got the email from Disney). But for Premier passholders, they keep extending the WDW end date so the passes will have the same expiration dates for both Disneyland and WDW. So people like me may end up with an extra trip on existing passes that was not really expected.
 
*Sorry if it looks sloppy. I had to open the article in an incognito window, then copy and paste it into a notes document, then paste it here lol*
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/10/...alifornias-unachievable-reopening-guidelines/From the OC Register:
California theme parks are considering legal action and keeping “all options open” after state officials issued reopening guidelines that could keep the major tourist destinations closed until early 2021 or even next summer.

California Attractions and Parks Association executive director Erin Guerrero said during a news conference on Wednesday, Oct. 21 that California theme parks are considering legal action to gain permission to reopen or to change the state’s newly-released reopening guidelines.

“I think that all options are open at this point,” Guerrero said during the news conference. “We’re going to continue to explore our options.”

The Sacramento-based CAPA represents Disneyland, Universal Studios, Knott’s Berry Farm, Six Flags Magic Mountain, SeaWorld San Diego, Legoland California, Six Flags Discovery Kingdom and California’s Great America.

California issued long-awaited theme park reopening guidelines on Tuesday, Oct. 20 as part of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy after state officials visited Disneyland, Universal Studios Hollywood and Pacific Park to review COVID-19 health and safety measures.

“Our number one goal is to be allowed to reopen responsibly,” Guerrero said during the news conference. “Obviously, we’d love to keep that conversation going and come up with a reasonable timeline for reopenings, but at this point any options are viable.”

Guerrero was joined on the virtual news conference by officials from Disneyland, Universal Studios Hollywood, Knott’s Berry Farm, Legoland California and California’s Great America.


Cedar Fair regional vice president Raffi Kaprelyan — whose company operates Knott’s Berry Farm, California’s Great America and Gilroy Gardens — echoed the sentiment regarding legal action.

“If they’re open to discussion, we’ll continue our dialogue,” Kaprelyan said during the news conference. “If not, all options are open.”


Theme park officials said the new reopening guidelines issued by the state are “unachievable” and will keep the parks “closed indefinitely.”


California officials issued separate reopening guidelines for smaller and larger theme parks in the state. Small theme parks can reopen in the orange/moderate tier 3 while large theme parks must wait to return in the yellow/minimal tier 4.

The new guidelines mean Disneyland, Universal Studios Hollywood and other large theme parks won’t be able to reopen for months — and possibly until early 2021 or next summer — when their respective counties reach the least-restrictive “minimal” risk level.


Most California counties with major theme parks fall into the second-most restrictive red/substantial tier 2 risk level — including Orange (Disneyland and Knott’s), San Diego (SeaWorld and Legoland) and Solano (Six Flags Discovery Kingdom).


Los Angeles County — home to Universal Studios Hollywood and Six Flags Magic Mountain
— is in the most restrictive purple/widespread tier 1 risk level. Santa Clara County — home to California’s Great America and the smaller Gilroy Gardens and Happy Hollow parks — is in the second-least restrictive orange/moderate tier 3 risk level.


The theme park officials called on Newsom to revise the newly-issued guidelines and allow California theme parks to reopen in tier 3 instead of tier 4.

“I’m very much hoping that this discussion is not over. We’re going to continue to work with the governor,” Universal Studios Hollywood president Karen Irwin said on the conference call. “The most disturbing part of these guidelines is opening in tier 4. Frankly, I just don’t see a path forward to getting to that level.”
 

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