Poly Tower Speculation

[_auroraborealis_]

If they are one association, it's got its own drawbacks.

1. Poly resale, even if it goes up, is still gonna be cheaper.

2. But if the direct points aren't selling for P2, limited availability occurs because it declares on a very slow roll. Undeclared units cannot be booked with any points - home resort, other resorts, whatever. It's cash money, baby, and developer inventory.

 

[Genie+]

To me, this is a very cleverly worded statement. Being part of the existing Polynesian Resort implies that it is not a new, standalone resort, but a tower that is sharing facilities and services with the resort. The current Polynesian Villas and Bungalows is also part of the existing Polynesian Resort. What is not said is if the tower will be part of the existing condominium association or, more specifically, Disney's Polynesian Villas and Bungalows.

Bingo. Was weird they did not clarify, either inarticulate or evasive. Same DVC association as PVB or not? Please

 

[Sandisw]

Weill, as I said in the other thread, I am shocked…it makes no sense to me. However, I do also agree that it certihaly was worded enough of a way to allow them an out.

But, to me, it makes the whole resale restriction model weaker and if I am someone buying, I’d be chancing it resale.

It also makes me wonder if they are considering getting rid of them and that we may see them removed.

How do you sell RIV, VDH, and FW cabins with them and Poly tower without? Who knows…except I no longer need to consider buying it.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

And just for the record, FL timeshare laws are pretty specific about what developers can and cannot say, and while I'm no attorney, I'd guess that one rings a bell that can't be un-rung.

You wouldn't happen to know the statute number and any way to find the regulations?

I would love to see what they actually say

 

[MyDogTink]

To me, this is a very cleverly worded statement. Being part of the existing Polynesian Resort implies that it is not a new, standalone resort, but a tower that is sharing facilities and services with the resort. The current Polynesian Villas and Bungalows is also part of the existing Polynesian Resort. What is not said is if the tower will be part of the existing condominium association or, more specifically, Disney's Polynesian Villas and Bungalows.

I agree. The statement says it will be part of the Polynesian Resort and not a 4th resort on the monorail line. The statement doesn’t say if it will be new or separate from the existing DVC PVB.

I know it was mentioned that Florida time share law has criteria on what can/can’t be stated; however I don’t fully buy into the “our plans right now…” wording. It’s open ended and was probably written by their lawyers and communication department. We all know they knew this question was coming. It’s like saying ‘best efforts’ in legal terms with no intention of doing so.

If it is same association, they are hurting their RIV sales. Also, if it’s same association I’m worried it’s going to be a lot of rooms/villas with very little amenities.

 

[CarolynFH]

If it is same association, they are hurting their RIV sales.

They’re also hurting direct sales of the Poly tower itself. Why should anyone buy direct there if they can buy resale cheaper?

 

[gmi3804]

They’re also hurting direct sales of the Poly tower itself. Why should anyone buy direct there if they can buy resale cheaper?

For the same reason people bought VGF direct when the Resort Rooms building was added.

 

[ehh]

They’re also hurting direct sales of the Poly tower itself. Why should anyone buy direct there if they can buy resale cheaper?

Because, at scale, resale can’t compete.

DVC is going to sell millions of Poly points in a few years. Existing Poly owners will only put up 10s of thousands (or very low 100,000s) of points up for sale over the same period of time. There isn’t and won’t be enough resale supply to meaningfully compete.

Some buyers will get great deals through resale and there will be some lost sales due to competition, no doubt, but it’s not like all (or even more than low single digit % of) buyers will even be able to buy resale.

 

[CarolynFH]

For the same reason people bought VGF direct when the Resort Rooms building was added.

So you think incentives will bring the direct price low enough to compete with resale, as they did with VGF2? They’ll need those direct dollars to pay for constructing an entire building, which will cost a lot more than the BPK flip did.

 

[GoingSince1990]

So you think incentives will bring the direct price low enough to compete with resale, as they did with VGF2? They’ll need those direct dollars to pay for constructing an entire building, which will cost a lot more than the BPK flip did.

Given that direct sales will be millions of points and resales a few thousand, the direct price will drive the resale price, not the other way around. Disney will set the direct PVB2 price and resale will be at a discount to this that reflects the inability to book at RIV, VDH, and future new resorts, as well as a lack of blue card privileges. Of course this discount will be much smaller than that for resale points at resorts such as RIV where resale buyers are restricted to booking at a single resort.

 

[DVCsloth]

For the same reason people bought VGF direct when the Resort Rooms building was added.

Not the same, VGF was not easy to book at 11 months. Polynesian is usually wide open at 11 months. If you buy direct, you will be competing with millions of points able to book the new tower at 11 months. Unless they sell it in the $160 range, just buy resale.

 

[Sandisw]

For the same reason people bought VGF direct when the Resort Rooms building was added.

Except VGF resale was in the $180s to $190s when new direct sales started which brought it down close to that level. I got my VGF points direct for $179.

PVB is currently in the $130s. It’s got to come quite a bit for people to choose to pay close to or over $200/pt direct when the difference is so big.

Now, it’s possible this is going to rise some, but maybe to $150s? Still going to be a decent spread against new direct.

And all the people who now jump on PVB resale is a lost direct sale.

 

[CarolynFH]

Because, at scale, resale can’t compete.

DVC is going to sell millions of Poly points in a few years. Existing Poly owners will only put up 10s of thousands (or very low 100,000s) of points up for sale over the same period of time. There isn’t and won’t be enough resale supply to meaningfully compete.

Some buyers will get great deals through resale and there will be some lost sales due to competition, no doubt, but it’s not like all (or even more than low single digit % of) buyers will even be able to buy resale.

Yes, that makes sense. I guess I just have a hard time believing that DVD would leave any money on the table at all!

 

[Sandisw]

Given that direct sales will be millions of points and resales a few thousand, the direct price will drive the resale price, not the other way around. Disney will set the direct PVB2 price and resale will be at a discount to this that reflects the inability to book at RIV, VDH, and future new resorts, as well as a lack of blue card privileges. Of course this discount will be much smaller than that for resale points at resorts such as RIV where resale buyers are restricted to booking at a single resort.

Assuming we don’t see them adjust the whole restrictions model. I personally think doing it this way hurts that strategy and I get you have buyers who are debating resale or direct will gamble DVD will do phase addition to another DVC resort instead of new.

 

[hockeydad21]

I’m not sure that the cost of doing some extra paperwork would prevent Disney from doing anything….

Disney doesn’t really have legal fees, they have staff attorneys

And even if they did have legal fees, those fees are a tax write off….

We are not talking a small company here

While true they have their own legal team(s) on staff, you’re talking about filing paperwork in 50 different states + any additional countries. Time = money. Making it part of the same association alleviates that pain point, while also addressing a few shortcomings of PVB.

 

[Hubalorian]

The skeptic in me says this was an easy way to raise resell prices so when Poly2 goes on sale it isn’t as drastic price difference while simultaneously having it share amenities with Poly1 but still having separate associations

The optimistic side of me wants to say well DVD delivered a win to the people. Time will tell what they mean by having them be apart of the same “resort”

 

[Sandisw]

I will be in WDW next week and it will be interesting to see what the guides have to say.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Because, at scale, resale can’t compete.

DVC is going to sell millions of Poly points in a few years. Existing Poly owners will only put up 10s of thousands (or very low 100,000s) of points up for sale over the same period of time. There isn’t and won’t be enough resale supply to meaningfully compete.

Some buyers will get great deals through resale and there will be some lost sales due to competition, no doubt, but it’s not like all (or even more than low single digit % of) buyers will even be able to buy resale.

I totally hear what you’re say and I accept that it’s the same association (although I still they think they’re being slightly evasive and should have been more forceful with their wording if they were going to announce it anyway, leaving no room for any argument) but I what I struggle to understand is DVD is going to sell millions of points anyway, resale restrictions or not, so why not? I see how we PVB owners benefit, how does DVD benefit?

Come next year they could have had 3 actively selling resorts with restrictions eliminating the choice of any unrestricted options. That just seems more logical for DVD. If they’re worried resale restrictions will hurt their sales then why not just remove them all together? Especially since they had pretty solid reasons for going the way of a new association and adding restrictions.

Their logic is all over the place or there’s something I’m just not seeing, very likely the latter.

 

[maui22]

I will be in WDW next week and it will be interesting to see what the guides have to say.

I hope Disney is informing everyone correctly.

I still recall guides telling me it was 100% certain BLT 2 tower was coming (that was around 2010/2011 while BLT 1 was still in active sales). Even talked about test drilling that approved the project.

I should add, when I mentioned this to our guide he was not happy with those working the sales presentation at BLT.

 

[Sandisw]

I hope Disney is informing everyone correctly.

I still recall guides telling me it was 100% certain BLT 2 tower was coming (that was around 2010/2011 while BLT 1 was still in active sales). Even talked about test drilling that approved the project.

Guides and sales people have been pretty consistent in saying they had no info in all my trips since announced.

With today’s answer, they should have no qualms about sharing its the same. But I’m emailing my guide tomorrow as well.