Are bookings down?

I question whether that many of the truly rich flock to WDW. There are no actual luxury hotels on property and fancy dining experiences are limited too. That's not to say that all rich people expect such things but I bet that many do.

That will be news to the five diamond awarded Four Seasons, which is across the golf course from Ft Wilderness.
https://www.fourseasons.com/content/fourseasons/en/properties/orlando/landing_pages/ppc/landing_3.html?gclid=CjwKCAjwpeXeBRA6EiwAyoJPKrRF3FHhIirdmEUOzV8oG2-_5q27_uFe8bqzaS8Rhfdy9T0-rSsfWxoCKO4QAvD_BwE&source=18gaworl01&s_kwcid=AL!4732!3!295165452600!e!!g!!4 seasons disney&ef_id=W4P5eAAAAZbhWyzH:20181031140730:s

https://www.google.com/maps/@28.4029575,-81.547215,15.69z
 
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I'm kind of starting to wonder about the galaxies edge "stall" and then "boom". Like I have no doubt it's going to draw crowds ... but ... I haven't seen a lot of people, even here, saying thru are delaying trips because of it. A few here and there, sure, but I think I've seen as many or more people GOING before things "get crazy". Yet people keep talking about the quiet before the storm ...

At the same time we often talk about how "normal" people are clueless as to what's happening at wdw generally speaking. I can't imagine "average" non-fansite folk are staying away because they are waiting for SWGE.

Therefore I am left with the conclusion that if there is availability, if disney starts sending out more promos and pins, bookings must be down, and not in anticipation of SWGE. Maybe, just maybe, when SWGE opens it will draw enough back to even it out or increase crowds. But I have to wonder if a combination of increased prices and an extended period of a good economy and vacation market saturation aren't having an impact here.

Not enough data points to confirm the lack of bookings, but I know Pete on the unplugged cast had said the summer was crazy slow.

Its interesting anyway.

And a recession is coming, maybe a year, maybe 2 ... but it's coming.

I dont see galaxies edge being this monster that some people believe it will be. I try and compare with Harry Potter at Universal. The reason it is so big is because it literally brought the books and movies and put you inside it. When I entered DA, I was in shock and awe.

Galaxy Edge is basically taking you to a place we have never seen in a movie, and just theming it like star wars. Big difference IMO

Will it draw massive crowds? I am sure it will. I just don't believe it will have that lasting power as Potter does.

Even Pandora doesn't wow me anymore. Without FOP, I wouldn't even go there. That is just me though.

I do feel things are slowing down though. Things are becoming much more expensive, because demand was raised. Now that it has become TOO high, demand dies off, and becomes a problem for the average person just wanting to go to the park with a family.
 


I do like FOP and I like the food in the attached restaurant even more. I prefer though seeing live animals throughout AK, and on the deck at Kidani below Sanaa (one of best restaurants in property for value and quality for us).

At present I am much more interested in a longer than the day trip we previously took universal trip to really enjoy Harry Potter. Not interested in Star Wars at this time. I think I am the wrong demographic and our kids were much more into reading HP books and seeing and buying the HP DVD’s than anything star wars growing up. Maybe we will wait until the frenzy dies down to see Star Wars land.
 
I'm kind of starting to wonder about the galaxies edge "stall" and then "boom". Like I have no doubt it's going to draw crowds ... but ... I haven't seen a lot of people, even here, saying thru are delaying trips because of it. A few here and there, sure, but I think I've seen as many or more people GOING before things "get crazy". Yet people keep talking about the quiet before the storm ...

At the same time we often talk about how "normal" people are clueless as to what's happening at wdw generally speaking. I can't imagine "average" non-fansite folk are staying away because they are waiting for SWGE.

Therefore I am left with the conclusion that if there is availability, if disney starts sending out more promos and pins, bookings must be down, and not in anticipation of SWGE. Maybe, just maybe, when SWGE opens it will draw enough back to even it out or increase crowds. But I have to wonder if a combination of increased prices and an extended period of a good economy and vacation market saturation aren't having an impact here.

Not enough data points to confirm the lack of bookings, but I know Pete on the unplugged cast had said the summer was crazy slow.

Its interesting anyway.

And a recession is coming, maybe a year, maybe 2 ... but it's coming.

The latest I read was financial experts were saying closer to five years for the recession, but yeah it's coming. Though I don't think it's going to effect as much as people think. It'll be harder to go visit the parks, yes... but I think it'll still happen for a lot of people.

I've seen people - loads on other sites - saying they're waiting for SWGE, but then you also have to keep in mind that this isn't some small expansion. Everyone knows it's happening. I have customers tell me they're excited for it, and they've never been to Disney before.

I don't necessarily think it will be AS BIG as they say, but it'll be big.

Either way, I still attribute these booking advertisements as money and prep for the anniversary... especially since the fall months have been exceptionally busy.

Recession’s already started. If you know where (economically vulnerable areas), in which industries (especially manufacturing parts suppliers in auto dependant areas), and which indicators to look for it’s easy to spot. It’ll take another year for people to start using the term “recession”, but it’s already started.
 
Recession’s already started. If you know where (economically vulnerable areas), in which industries (especially manufacturing parts suppliers in auto dependant areas), and which indicators to look for it’s easy to spot. It’ll take another year for people to start using the term “recession”, but it’s already started.

Agree. I work for a major auto parts supplier, and we are very worried. The tariffs with China are one of the major factors.
 


Recession’s already started. If you know where (economically vulnerable areas), in which industries (especially manufacturing parts suppliers in auto dependant areas), and which indicators to look for it’s easy to spot. It’ll take another year for people to start using the term “recession”, but it’s already started.

For those who are in the know, is it expected that Canada will follow with one of their own?
 
Agree. I work for a major auto parts supplier, and we are very worried. The tariffs with China are one of the major factors.

I am employed by a CPA firm whose niche is small business. Our businesses are already cutting back staffing, both in new hires and with existing employees. I run their payroll and can see the changes that are been slowly being put into place, a few hours here and a few there. It all adds up.
 
I am employed by a CPA firm whose niche is small business. Our businesses are already cutting back staffing, both in new hires and with existing employees. I run their payroll and can see the changes that are been slowly being put into place, a few hours here and a few there. It all adds up.

This was expected with the mandatory increases in minimum wages, especially for small businesses.
IMHO, it is just starting.:flower1:
 
This was expected with the mandatory increases in minimum wages, especially for small businesses.
IMHO, it is just starting.:flower1:

It is more than the increased minimum wages. Most of our businesses are located in MA and since January there has been an EMAC surcharge for many employers if their employees are on the health connector or if they get subsidies from MA Health, up to $750 per employee. In addition the rate went up as well, from .034% to .051%. Add this to the changes small businesses will expect in terms of deductions, and they are concerned. They are already cutting back where they can, and many have already reduced their workforce, mostly by attrition. They just do not replace employees who leave, and they are not increasing hours.
 
DIsney's quarterly report, which does include summer, showed that revenue per guest was up quite a bit over last year, and that overall revenue was up despite a decrease in attendance. You may already see the impact of a recession at Disney in terms of attendance, but they have altered their pricing model to be sure that earn as much (if not more) than in the past.
 
I was under the impression that bookings are down, but when I went to book our trip last week for a family of 6 (2 adults + 3 kids and infant) for week of 6/23-7/2 only premium rooms were available at CBR and POR.

I reduced the size of our group and even then standard rooms are unavailable. How would 2 resorts already be nearly sold out if bookings are down?
 
The "bookings down" meme was a myth. From Disney's November earnings call:

For July-September

“Higher operating income at our domestic operations was primarily due to guest spending and attendance growth…

Attendance at our domestic parks was up 4% and per capita spending was up 9% on higher admissions, food and beverage and merchandise spending. Per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 8% and occupancy was up one percentage point to 85%.”


For October—through early November:

“So far this quarter, domestic resort reservations are pacing up 3% compared to prior year, while booked rates are up 4%.”

The full transcript is here: https://www.thewaltdisneycompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/q4-fy18-earnings-transcript.pdf My qoutes are from page 7.
 
I was under the impression that bookings are down, but when I went to book our trip last week for a family of 6 (2 adults + 3 kids and infant) for week of 6/23-7/2 only premium rooms were available at CBR and POR.

I reduced the size of our group and even then standard rooms are unavailable. How would 2 resorts already be nearly sold out if bookings are down?

I'm guessing some of it is because they tore down some of the buildings at CBR. I haven't been following closely enough to know if they still have some of the remaining buildings closed for construction.

We stayed offsite for the first time this year, in a condo in Windsor Palms. Something I swore that I would never do. Onsite at a moderate was more than we wanted to pay, and our kids will no longer share a bed. DVC is out of our price range and we aren't interested in renting points. We stayed in a 3-bedroom/2-bathroom condo for just over $100 a night. Yes, we had to pay to park at the theme parks, but since we do not fly, we would have had to pay essentially the same amount to park it at our moderate resort. We will probably stay in the same condo until both of our kids have left home.
 
The "bookings down" meme was a myth. From Disney's November earnings call:

For July-September

“Higher operating income at our domestic operations was primarily due to guest spending and attendance growth…

Attendance at our domestic parks was up 4% and per capita spending was up 9% on higher admissions, food and beverage and merchandise spending. Per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 8% and occupancy was up one percentage point to 85%.”


For October—through early November:

“So far this quarter, domestic resort reservations are pacing up 3% compared to prior year, while booked rates are up 4%.”

The full transcript is here: https://www.thewaltdisneycompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/q4-fy18-earnings-transcript.pdf My qoutes are from page 7.
Domestic resort reservations can be up and park attendance can still be down. They are not necessarily related.
 

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