Cases rising or dropping by you?

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

The junior college by us decided full remote through Spring 2021 back in June.
I’m not defending 6,000 new cases, but also remember we’re a state of 39.5 million people. And compared to most other states, we are being careful.

Which is worse 6000 cases among 40 million people or 4,400 cases among 6 million?
Which is worse 6,000 cases among 40 million or 6500 among 29 million.
Which is worse 6,000 cases among 40 million or 3700 cases among 21 million?

Once we look at proportion we understand that California isn't doing too badly relatively.

But there's bad news in so many places,

Near 80,000 nationally, a record. (some counting sites are over but I'm not going to go back and forth and go by whichever one looks worse.)
28 states over 1,000, a record.
12 states over 2,000, a record.

Update. Mine just went over too. Over 81,000 now.

 

[JimMIA]

Which is worse 6000 cases among 40 million people or 4,400 cases among 6 million?
Which is worse 6,000 cases among 40 million or 6500 among 29 million.
Which is worse 6,000 cases among 40 million or 3700 cases among 21 million?

Once we look at proportion we understand that California isn't doing too badly relatively.

But there's bad news in so many places,

Near 80,000 nationally, a record. (some counting sites are over but I'm not going to go back and forth and go by whichever one looks worse.)
28 states over 1,000, a record.
12 states over 2,000, a record.

And the other problem is that looking at one day's new cases is meaningless. New case totals bounce all over the place because of fluctuations in reporting, testing, weather, and many other factors.

Something like a 7-day or 14-day rolling average would be a much more meaningful statistic.

 

[Heather07438]

My understanding from friends who have kids at universities in the San Diego and Los Angeles areas is that their kids' schools are primarily remote, but that labs and other classes that cannot be effectively taught remotely are being allowed to meet in person with reduced class sizes, masks and other precautions, and housing is open in a limited capacity to support those things. I have one friend whose daughter is a junior chemistry major who is living in on-campus housing (though all dorms are singles and the dining hall is take out only) so that she can attend labs and another whose two kids are sharing an off-campus apartment because their parents weren't happy with the precautions the university was taking to protect the students that did come back. Both of her kids are in medical majors. But at my daughter's school, even lab science and nursing majors are watching their labs on Zoom or YouTube. That's great preparation for careers or grad school, right? But we've already been told officially that spring and summer will be the same and unofficially warned (via professors who are being told to prepare) to expect it to continue for fall '21 unless the county changes course between now and then. I think that's an outlier even for California, and certainly for the rest of the country.

Yikes. Seems premature to already cancel in person for spring and summer. I'm pleasantly surprised DS18's uni has managed (so far) with hybrid classes (50% in person, 50% live stream) and dorms filled 51% (1200 students). WPU has almost 10k enrolled right now and pretty sure students can opt 100% virtual for most classes. I didn't have great expectations going in but the school at least had a well thought plan to try their best. It felt less risky sending him than letting him lose more academic momentum after falling behind senior year.
https://www.wpunj.edu/covid19/dashboard.html Even if some cases fly under the radar, it's going well with just 4 more weeks to go. Semester ends Thanksgiving because they started 2 weeks early.

It does feel like the calm before the storm around here.
Just found out SIL59 is C19-positive So far achy, tired, no smell. DH was with her earlier in week to help mother move. Co-workers at her law office all sent home and asked only to return after neg test.
His BF took a test today too... negative. His daughter 14yo became sick and tested positive, but so far the other 2 teen girls and parents have tested negative.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

And the other problem is that looking at one day's new cases is meaningless. New case totals bounce all over the place because of fluctuations in reporting, testing, weather, and many other factors.

Something like a 7-day or 14-day rolling average would be a much more meaningful statistic.

I don't just look at one day's new cases. But that was the subject of conversation and my statement was meant to be a statement about proportion NOT an end all be all definitive statistic. But while we're on the subject, saying one day's cases is meaningless is just as errant as saying it is the end all be all.

To see if things are changing over time, I like to use the high low for the week and compare them. The great thing about it is it's an easy method, easily understood and seeing how this is just a message board, good enough. The previous record high low was (times 1,000) 63-79 way back in July. This week's high low is 51-81. Last weeks was 41-72. The week before it was 34-61. the week before that 34-57. So we're on a definite upswing and we're in near record territory.

 

[robinb]

My understanding from friends who have kids at universities in the San Diego and Los Angeles areas is that their kids' schools are primarily remote, but that labs and other classes that cannot be effectively taught remotely are being allowed to meet in person with reduced class sizes, masks and other precautions, and housing is open in a limited capacity to support those things. I have one friend whose daughter is a junior chemistry major who is living in on-campus housing (though all dorms are singles and the dining hall is take out only) so that she can attend labs and another whose two kids are sharing an off-campus apartment because their parents weren't happy with the precautions the university was taking to protect the students that did come back. Both of her kids are in medical majors. But at my daughter's school, even lab science and nursing majors are watching their labs on Zoom or YouTube. That's great preparation for careers or grad school, right? But we've already been told officially that spring and summer will be the same and unofficially warned (via professors who are being told to prepare) to expect it to continue for fall '21 unless the county changes course between now and then. I think that's an outlier even for California, and certainly for the rest of the country.

My daughter’s Anatomy and Physiology class is all remote in Wisconsin. Her labs are mostly online except she has to do some dissections at home.

 

[Colleen27]

Frankly, that sounds more like a political agenda on the professors' part than an honest evaluation.

My DD is a biomedical research major, and if she were told that, we'd be looking for a new university.

I don't think that's the case. These particular professors are involved in a freshman program that is designed to ease the transition to college for high-performing first generation and/or economically disadvantaged students, so adjusting the program to support this weird online learning/social isolation model has been a major challenge. DD was to be an RA in the program and is now working as a student-mentor for this year's program cohort even though there's no "resident" part of the RA role, so she's in frequent contact with them both. I hope the university is asking them to prepare out of an abundance of caution and a desire to be ready for any outcome... but SF county is in California's least-restrictive tier on the statewide reopening model and rather than seeing that as a reason to allow more things to reopen, it is being framed as proof that staying closed works and therefore should continue. And I think there's a serious risk of that mindset becoming increasingly widespread and those that hold it feeling more and more validated as the numbers balloon in the cooler states, because the increase is often being attributed to premature openings and/or resuming schools rather than to cooler weather shifting life back indoors and mask compliance declining as state orders are overturned, even though schools have been open for months and restaurants, churches, and other public spaces even longer than that.

DD has toyed with the idea of applying to transfer elsewhere, but at this point I'm somewhat discouraging it and hoping for better things for next academic year. Her particular combination of majors (marine biology and Japanese) was limiting enough when we were doing the college search in HS - finding it in another school where transfer would be a realistic and financially viable option is not likely to be an easy task.

 

[godisney14]

Here’s some numbers (from Worldometers):

	Population	total cases	total tests
California	39.5 M	900,483	17.5 M
Texas	29.0 M	903,286	8.33 M
Florida	21.5 M	771,780	5.87

Not only has CA conducted almost 2x more tests per capita than the next two biggest states, the per capita cases in CA is ~50% less.
In fact, CA is below the US average in both cases per 1M and deaths per 1M.

I think CA is doing just fine relatively speaking.

(BTW, as you can see, the number of cases does not correlate linearly with the number of tests).

 

[EACarlson]

My state is crazy with Covid infections. We've had over 20,000 new cases in the last 7 days with a record shattering 3,747 from today. Our governor keeps on trying to establish rules to control the pandemic (a state wide mask rule and a rule to limit bars and restaurants to 25%) and he keeps on being sued and his rules overturned. 20% of the people being tested are positive and a field hospital opened up at our state fairgrounds. It's very frustrating to see things go to heck in a handbasket while people ignore best practices.

The "field hospital" has 2 patients as of yesterday, the positive test rate has never been 20%, as of Friday's reporting the positive test rate is 11%. While still incredibly high, it is not the 24% that Evers is peddling. Why hasn't the Governor gone after bars and restaurants through administrative rule making on their liquor and food licenses? If that is what he wants that would be a constitutional way to do it rather than going after every room in the state.

Need both nationwide and statewide actions. The virus knows no borders, wherever the controls are lax, the virus will take root and spread exponentially. There are already nationwide actions in place, border controls primarily. The nationwide action needs to set minimum controls to prevent virus spread and ideally the controls needed to prevent spread from hot spots to areas where the spread is controlled. A nationwide mask mandate would be the simplest of such controls.

State actions are needed to get hot spots under control to prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed, such as in Wisconsin now.

Border controls are the only things that the US Federal Government can do. 10th Amendment, any powers not specifically delegated to the federal government in the Constitution are reserved for the states.

The positivity rate here in WI is hovering around 20% and no one is batting an eye. They shrug it off and head to the bar, or to that 300+ guest wedding. We’re screwed.

One of our best friends just tested positive. He’s a first grade teacher that really goes nowhere besides work and the grocery store. Thankfully he just has cold symptoms and loss of taste and smell, but is otherwise ok. It’s just getting harder and harder to dodge.

Again the positivity rate is 11%, not 20. I completely agree that people are being incredibly moronic by going to the bars or large indoor gatherings without taking precautions. I also feel that some of these owners are doing themselves a disservice by packing in as many people as they can, then complaining to the government when they contract Coronavirus.

 

[Dan Murphy]

New US record for new infections. Terrible record to attain. 83,757 new cases and now 224,000 dead.

https://6abc.com/covid-19-record-coronavirus-cases-covid-infection-rates-number/7298895/

 

[dvcgirl67]

New US record for new infections. Terrible record to attain. 83,757 new cases and now 224,000 dead.

https://6abc.com/covid-19-record-coronavirus-cases-covid-infection-rates-number/7298895/

Just terrible. The next 4-6 months are going to be grim.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Here’s some numbers (from Worldometers):

	Population	total cases	total tests
California	39.5 M	900,483	17.5 M
Texas	29.0 M	903,286	8.33 M
Florida	21.5 M	771,780	5.87

Not only has CA conducted almost 2x more tests per capita than the next two biggest states, the per capita cases in CA is ~50% less.
In fact, CA is below the US average in both cases per 1M and deaths per 1M.

I think CA is doing just fine relatively speaking.

(BTW, as you can see, the number of cases does not correlate linearly with the number of tests).

Sorting by cases per million is an eye opener.
1. North Dakota
2. South Dakota
3. Mississippi
4. Louisiana
5. Alabama
6. Iowa
7. Florida
8. Tennessee
9. Arkansas
10. South Carolina
....
....
...
33. California.

 

[robinb]

The "field hospital" has 2 patients as of yesterday, the positive test rate has never been 20%, as of Friday's reporting the positive test rate is 11%. While still incredibly high, it is not the 24% that Evers is peddling. Why hasn't the Governor gone after bars and restaurants through administrative rule making on their liquor and food licenses? If that is what he wants that would be a constitutional way to do it rather than going after every room in the state.

Wisconsin reports two metrics. (1) The percentage positive per person and (2) the percentage positive per test. Many people, like college students and health care workers, are tested multiple times. The percentages are 7-day averages.

The percentage per person is 22% and is calculated like this:

Percent positive is calculated as the number of positive tests (confirmed cases) divided by total people tested. People are included as testing positive (dark blue bars) on the date of their positive test result. If they tested positive more than once, they are only included once on the date of their first positive test result. People who tested negative and never positive (gray bars) are counted once on the date of their first negative test result. However, if someone tests negative, then positive at a later date, they are removed from the negative count and are now counted as a positive.

The percentage by test is 12% and is calculated like this:

In this graph, people are included each time they are tested. If people tested positive or negative more than once, they are included and counted each time, on the date the testing lab reports their test result. Tracking by test provides a daily view of test positivity and is a more recent method used by other groups.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/data.htm#result
As for Governor Evers pulling food and liquor licenses across the state for non-compliance, that is not under his legal authority. He has to rely on local county governments to enforce the rules. Unfortunately, most of the county executives have no interest in asking bars and restaurants to comply and sheriffs across the state have flat-out said that they will not enforce rules. FWIW, my county does enforce the mask rules and occupancy limits.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Wisconsin reports two metrics. (1) The percentage positive per person and (2) the percentage positive per test. Many people, like college students and health care workers, are tested multiple times. The percentages are 7-day averages.

The percentage per person is 22% and is calculated like this:


The percentage by test is 12% and is calculated like this:


https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/data.htm#result
As for Governor Evers pulling food and liquor licenses across the state for non-compliance, that is not under his legal authority. He has to rely on local county governments to enforce the rules. Unfortunately, most of the county executives have no interest in asking bars and restaurants to comply and sheriffs across the state have flat-out said that they will not enforce rules. FWIW, my county does enforce the mask rules and occupancy limits.

 

[JimMIA]

As for Governor Evers pulling food and liquor licenses across the state for non-compliance, that is not under his legal authority. He has to rely on local county governments to enforce the rules. Unfortunately, most of the county executives have no interest in asking bars and restaurants to comply and sheriffs across the state have flat-out said that they will not enforce rules. FWIW, my county does enforce the mask rules and occupancy limits.

Yep, that's the real-world problem with all the "woulda, coulda, shoulda" criticisms people have of public officials.

All public officials are thankfully constrained by laws. The first thing they need is the legal authority to actually mandate something -- some offices have authority, many do not.

And then the second thing needed is a realistic approach.

For example, here in Miami we started by expecting the police to enforce things. Sounds like a good idea, except that prosecutors said they would not prosecute the cases, and the police were reluctant to put themselves on the line for nothing-burger cases. They can't arrest or cite people legitimately if they know the prosecutors will not accept the cases -- that's borderline false arrest.

So we abandoned that approach and made violations civil infractions under our health and zoning laws/codes. Boom! -- instant effective enforcement by the people who actually deal with those issues on a daily basis.

 

[Dan Murphy]

Another horrible day for Illinois, newly confirmed daily COVID-19 cases brings a new state record — 6,161 — as 63 more deaths reported; positivity rate climbs to 6.1%.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0201024-v6binsngknhclpkrppikejtgii-story.html

 

[RamblingMad]

Another horrible day for Illinois, newly confirmed daily COVID-19 cases brings a new state record — 6,161 — as 63 more deaths reported; positivity rate climbs to 6.1%.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0201024-v6binsngknhclpkrppikejtgii-story.html

One of my Chicago friends was just discharged from the hospital with COVID. They test again today.

 

[Dan Murphy]

One of my Chicago friends was just discharged from the hospital with COVID. They test again today.

Wishing your friend well, RM.

 

[disneypharm]

I don't want to start another covid thread, but I just saw this on youtube about how CDC handled a COVID-exposed cruise. Passengers were interviewed by 60 minutes. It is absolutely appalling how the whole thing was handled! Not sure if I trust CDC or FDA handling anything with the vaccine!

 

[EACarlson]

As for Governor Evers pulling food and liquor licenses across the state for non-compliance, that is not under his legal authority. He has to rely on local county governments to enforce the rules. Unfortunately, most of the county executives have no interest in asking bars and restaurants to comply and sheriffs across the state have flat-out said that they will not enforce rules. FWIW, my county does enforce the mask rules and occupancy limits.

Evers has more authority to do that than he does for a statewide mask mandate or reducing all indoor public places to 25% capacity. At least those places are required to be licensed, ideally the issuing authority would make those a requirement of keeping those licenses, but obviously that is not going to happen, at least not in the drunkest state in the nation.

 

[tarheelmjfan]

I don't want to start another covid thread, but I just saw this on youtube about CDC's plan filled with COVID-exposed cruise. Passengers were interviewed by 60 minutes. It is absolutely appalling how the whole thing was handled! Not sure if I trust CDC or FDA handling anything with the vaccine!

This would have surprised me 9 months ago, but not at all anymore. I told DH we wouldn't be watching anymore pandemic movies. We used to love them, but it would be impossible to take them even a little seriously now that we know what really happens in the US during a pandemic.