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My issue with RIV is the double whammy. It uses lots of points to get a room, similar to VGF, PVB and BLT, besides the BLT standard rooms. But look at the dues for VGF $6.56, PVB $6.79 and BLT $6.57 for 2020. Now you have RIV. $8.30. RIV dues are on average $1.66 more than VGF, PVB and BLT per point. Some say that the other resorts will catch up, I don’t think they will any time soon. The more points it costs for a room it should lower the cost of dues. Something in RIV dues is way higher than the other resorts. If RIV was in the $6.xx range on dues. I would buy some.
 
Perhaps this is the gold/blue dress.

One can look at that same point and ask: What other actively selling resort has needed to resort to discounting older properties so guides can make sales?

I suspect sales are doing just fine (certainly better than should be expected) and Riviera would’ve likely sold out as quickly as CCV, if not faster, had it not been for the whole “four horsemen partying like it’s 2020” thing, but I think the fact that they chose to discount sold out resorts, something never before done, does speak to how they projected being able to get people to buy in who may not otherwise if Riviera/Aulani were the only offering.

ETA- and discounting sold-out resorts may speak specifically to how sales are doing among current owners.

They discounted everything right out of the closure and they took them away as soon as the first round of incentives ended. If sales were going so bad on actively selling resorts they would have kept them around.

So its not like they came back, RIV was not selling for a couple months, and then they offered old resort discounts. In addition they increased both minimum point requirements (although likely planned since 2017) and reduced discounts as well out of the original offering, both of which point to at least in the ball park expected sales.

Now if they increase the discounting again back to summer incentive levels on RIV or bring back sold out discounts then I think that points to slipping sales compared to where their expectations are.

Also when we look at the price at which RIV is being sold its the most expensive after adjusting for inflation historically. It is roughly $10+/point more than CCV/Poly and $30+/point more than VGF.
 


My issue with RIV is the double whammy. It uses lots of points to get a room, similar to VGF, PVB and BLT, besides the BLT standard rooms. But look at the dues for VGF $6.56, PVB $6.79 and BLT $6.57 for 2020. Now you have RIV. $8.30. RIV dues are on average $1.66 more than VGF, PVB and BLT per point. Some say that the other resorts will catch up, I don’t think they will any time soon. The more points it costs for a room it should lower the cost of dues. Something in RIV dues is way higher than the other resorts. If RIV was in the $6.xx range on dues. I would buy some.

From what I remember, from other resorts, the first few years usually have a smaller increase in dues because they are still adjusting for true operational expenses and it takes a few years to do that,

So, I think there is a chance that the difference between RIV and others may close,

It will be interesting though to see what happens because now 2021 may be different given what is happening.

But, for me, the difference in MFs were not enough to deter me from buying there because I want to be able to book SV rooms as much as possible and it’s my top Epcot area resort now that I have toured it.

So, i think that it comes down to the same arguments as always. Buy where you are happy staying and I think those that have bought RIV feel that price, points charts and fees make it worth owning over places less expensive.
 
My issue with RIV is the double whammy. It uses lots of points to get a room, similar to VGF, PVB and BLT, besides the BLT standard rooms. But look at the dues for VGF $6.56, PVB $6.79 and BLT $6.57 for 2020. Now you have RIV. $8.30. RIV dues are on average $1.66 more than VGF, PVB and BLT per point. Some say that the other resorts will catch up, I don’t think they will any time soon. The more points it costs for a room it should lower the cost of dues. Something in RIV dues is way higher than the other resorts. If RIV was in the $6.xx range on dues. I would buy some.

RIV is unlikely to catch VGF/PVB/BLT. I would expect those to increase around the 3-3.5% range while RIV stay under 1% though during the first 3 years. Now the wrench in things is the pandemic so we might not see that closure in gap during the first 3 years but I would expect it over the next 5 years to end up in that ball park. Roughly expect $7.16, $7.41, $7.17, $8.55 ($1.14-$1.39/point more or roughly 15% more).

For me though when I bought I got 300 RIV points for $155/point. So essentially $67 vs BLT (which I was seriously considering), $77 vs POLY (wasn't considering), and $100/point vs VGF (not exactly my style). Was also considering CCV which was $25/point price difference.

Yes I could have gotten resale points at these resorts but a tad less but in the end it really washed the next 20-30+ years of MF difference (even when buying a combo resale/direct at the other resorts) which is then to far out to really accurately predict MF difference between resorts. I also locked in studios for 2 different fixed weeks to protect again any long term shortage of rooms during the December crush (or possible point chart changes to December 1-15).
 


As someone who works with data a lot, I’m not entirely certain here that I agree this is just a gold/blue dress.
My gold/blue dress comment was in reference to Sethschroeder's comment regarding competing against incentivized sold-out resorts.

I still maintain that the incentives on sold-out resorts, while maybe a novel tool used due to the pandemic, would be unlikely to be deployed absent some concern around current ownership interest in the current, actively sold resort.
They discounted everything right out of the closure and they took them away as soon as the first round of incentives ended. If sales were going so bad on actively selling resorts they would have kept them around.
There still are incentives on sold-out resorts. Are you suggesting sales are going badly, SETH? 😉

Not sure I'd conclude the same thing, but only that there are enough current owners more likely to buy another resort that Disney is willing to take the unprecedented step of discounting those resorts to nudge them. I agree that Riviera as a percentage of all resorts sold is challenged by the incentives, but we're probably chicken/egg on this point.
Now if they increase the discounting again back to summer incentive levels on RIV or bring back sold out discounts then I think that points to slipping sales compared to where their expectations are.
That would be a bad look if they said incentives were going away and then went back on that. Incentives always go through fluctuations. It feeds the FOMO cycle. Great incentives (and Riviera saw its best ever this summer) are always, invariably, followed by less appealing incentives.

I have no doubt that Disney is just fine with how sales are going, given the pandemic. I also have no doubt that pre-pandemic, Disney was very happy with how sales were going.

I don't subscribe to the idea that sales are doing poorly, and would attribute such held positions as being colored by either personal perspectives on the restrictions or the Riviera resort itself. Nothing I have seen or heard has suggested this is the case.

Riviera will sell out just like every other resort that came before it not called Aulani. And every subsequent WDW resort after it will as well with the same restrictions. I don't see that changing as long as previously-anti-X-resorters continue to become their most vocal advocates. It means Disney has not hit the ownership pain point yet and is still leaving money on the table. And that won't change until they hold all the cards.
 
A guide told me that they believe RIVs dues will be going down next year. But this guide also told me wrong information regarding to RIV resale restrictions so take that information with a grain of salt.
 
A guide told me that they believe RIVs dues will be going down next year. But this guide also told me wrong information regarding to RIV resale restrictions so take that information with a grain of salt.

Interesting, and possible. When the first year of dues are set they are based on nothing but what they believe are expected costs. I know there are certain things that would be pretty easy, like mousekeeping, etc.

One thing that was an unknown was the Skyliner actual costs. Once it opened, they actual reduced buses to Epcot and DHS, which initially were slated every 20 minutes.

Since RIV was only open 3 months, they really don’t have a years worth of actual expenses to base things on,

But, as you said, the guide was wrong before so it will be interesting.
 
Sorry but to call it "selling poorly" is laughable.

You must know something DVD doesn't then. In case you didn't notice, they fired a bunch of people. They shelved Reflections, after spending tons of cash on marketing and starting construction. This is a massive, years-long decision to steer the Titanic away from an iceburg, costing money and jobs, and it takes a long time to undo it. They wouldn't have shelved Reflections if they didn't think this was going poorly. Shelving Reflections means RIV will be the only (new) WDW property for sale for a looong time and DVD expects several years to sell out. Maybe they can slap some paint on Yacht Club or Jambo if we magically go back to normal.

I mean, sure, people bought with the incentives, and those deals were good! Maybe even more people bought than we expected, but let's not pretend like this is going well. DVD's actions obviously show it isn't.
 
You must know something DVD doesn't then. In case you didn't notice, they fired a bunch of people. They shelved Reflections, after spending tons of cash on marketing and starting construction. This is a massive, years-long decision to steer the Titanic away from an iceburg, costing money and jobs, and it takes a long time to undo it. They wouldn't have shelved Reflections if they didn't think this was going poorly. Shelving Reflections means RIV will be the only (new) WDW property for sale for a looong time and DVD expects several years to sell out. Maybe they can slap some paint on Yacht Club or Jambo if we magically go back to normal.

I mean, sure, people bought with the incentives, and those deals were good! Maybe even more people bought than we expected, but let's not pretend like this is going well. DVD's actions obviously show it isn't.
This would be akin to saying SWGE must be a failure with only 25% attendance at the parks lately.

I'm not sure if it's intentional, but you seem to be conflating the larger economic impact of a global pandemic with Riviera's sales performance. No amount of Riviera sales would avoid any of the things you are listing: layoffs, shelving reflections, etc.
 
No amount of Riviera sales would avoid any of the things you are listing: layoffs, shelving reflections, etc.

If Riviera were selling out soon and Disney anticipated big sales, Reflections would still be on, just like DL Tower is. Reflections getting shelved is the direct consequence of Riviera sales and projected sales. A DL Tower level of anticipated sales would mean the construction would go on, like in DL, where there isn't even an open date.
 
You must know something DVD doesn't then. In case you didn't notice, they fired a bunch of people. They shelved Reflections, after spending tons of cash on marketing and starting construction. This is a massive, years-long decision to steer the Titanic away from an iceburg, costing money and jobs, and it takes a long time to undo it. They wouldn't have shelved Reflections if they didn't think this was going poorly. Shelving Reflections means RIV will be the only (new) WDW property for sale for a looong time and DVD expects several years to sell out. Maybe they can slap some paint on Yacht Club or Jambo if we magically go back to normal.

I mean, sure, people bought with the incentives, and those deals were good! Maybe even more people bought than we expected, but let's not pretend like this is going well. DVD's actions obviously show it isn't.

As someone with a child working with the company in a struggling division right now, Many decisions are being made that we’re not part of the plan last year.

Almost all divisions were asked to cut expenses as revenue due to Covid is way down.. Reflections was not scrapped because RIV was selling poorly. They shelved it because they can’t even fill their regular resorts built now and adding hotel makes no sense. Reflections was not DVC alone so if it was because of poor sales, they could have scrapped just the DVC part and built it as a just a hotel instead.

Now, if they had shelved the project prior to Covid, it might be a sign, but they didn’t.

Not sure you can use that as an example.
 
If Riviera were selling out soon and Disney anticipated big sales, Reflections would still be on, just like DL Tower is. Reflections getting shelved is the direct consequence of Riviera sales and projected sales. A DL Tower level of anticipated sales would mean the construction would go on, like in DL, where there isn't even an open date.
So basically it would take Disney selling out a resort a less than a year after opening, through a global pandemic that has seen economies implode, for you to concede that maybe sales aren't that bad?

On the other end of a sales transaction are the buyers. As a whole, tourism has been watching eight months of their industry hemorrhaging revenue from cancellations but you're confident that if Riviera sales were doing well, Disney's timeshare division would've dodged all of that? Unemployment/Main St is going to eventually catch up to Wall st. When it does, TWDC needs to be in a position to absorb that impact, namely a consumer market that has been hugely impacted by the pandemic. Preparing for that will involve all of the things that you are attributing to slow Riviera sales. That seems a bit tunnel visioned and requires a deliberate dismissal of the economic realities of 2020.
 
Reflections getting shelved is the direct consequence of Riviera sales and projected sales.
Reflections getting shelved is the direct consequence of the pandemic.

It is the same reason a number of resorts in Disney haven't reopened, and park hours are reduced, and APs aren't being sold. It is the same reason why CMs have been laid off, and beloved shows and artists were let go from the parks. It was DL is still closed.

The pandemic caused a MASSIVE hit to Disney's bottom line, and it will take Disney a long time to recover from that, even if things were to return to "normal" tomorrow. Thus, they are cutting costs and projects everywhere until their financial situation - and the world's situation - returns to a state where they can invest in new projects and new developments and expect to get a return on that investment.
 
So basically it would take Disney selling out a resort a less than a year after opening, through a global pandemic that has seen economies implode, for you to concede that maybe sales aren't that bad?

I'm not sure why no one is willing to state the obvious, that the whole situation is bad. If DVD thought they could sell RIV out, even in a couple more years, Reflections would still be on deck.
 
I'm not sure why no one is willing to state the obvious, that the whole situation is bad. If DVD thought they could sell RIV out, even in a couple more years, Reflections would still be on deck.

It could also be that converting existing resorts is the far cheaper option for future DVC, and something else will go at the Reflections site one to two DVCs down the line when business is back. Just speculating though.
 
I think they would love to have Reflections still on track. I have to agree, the pandemic was the main reason that it was shelved. With delays in California, I can see the DL project getting shelved too. When I say shelved, I’m not saying gone. Just delayed. This is a seriously rough economic time. There will be a huge asterisk next to the selling statistics.
 
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