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I'm not sure why no one is willing to state the obvious, that the whole situation is bad. If DVD thought they could sell RIV out, even in a couple more years, Reflections would still be on deck.
I disagree. It costs a significant amount of money to build a new resort. The decision with Reflections is not predicated on Riviera. They are looking at the amount of money it would take to build and market the resort, versus the expected return on investment and how long and when they could sell it out. The decision with Reflections is the exact same decision around stopping the 21st century builds at Pop Century (and in that case, they had already built the entire building frames!). It does not make good business sense to spend that money now when there is uncertainty as to when the market/travel will recover enough to warrant a new resort. Given that WDW isn't even opening all of its own Deluxe resorts is telling that they do not expect levels to return for some time. It makes absolute sense to conserve capital until things are more stable.
 
I'm not sure why no one is willing to state the obvious, that the whole situation is bad. If DVD thought they could sell RIV out, even in a couple more years, Reflections would still be on deck.

Can you please provide your source for this? Because if you haven’t gotten that from DVD, it’s nothing more than your own reasoning.

I will agree that with Covid the time to sell RIV will be longer than before its simply an outcome of what is happening right now.

So, the rush to get Reflections going by 2022 isn’t needed. But Agaih, not because RIV is a fail but because they have had to adjust projections because of the pandemic.
 
Reflections has been scrubbed from the website and construction appears to have stopped. I would consider it obvious that it is at least on pause.
 
Reflections has been scrubbed from the website and construction appears to have stopped. I would consider it obvious that it is at least on pause.

Yes, i know that. I meant your source that it was because of sales of RIV and not due to the pandemic.
 


Obviously, this is all because of the pandemic. If RIV were anywhere close to selling out, we would be hearing about the next project. But right now there is no next project. Either the RIV forecast is a looong time to sell out, or they plan on something like painting Yacht Club next. I wouldn't be surprised if they slow down the incentives and take their time to sell. That's not a bad thing short term.
 
Obviously, this is all because of the pandemic. If RIV were anywhere close to selling out, we would be hearing about the next project. But right now there is no next project. Either the RIV forecast is a looong time to sell out, or they plan on something like painting Yacht Club next. I wouldn't be surprised if they slow down the incentives and take their time to sell. That's not a bad thing short term.

Okay, I see your point now. I thought you were saying that the scrapping of Reflections would have happened regardless because RIV sales prior to it were poor,

I agree then that with all that is going on, expectations have changed and they are acting in a way to allow for things to get back to normal, I wonder if when they do they will get that project up and running, or make one of the other resorts full DVC. I could see WL or AKL being done that way.
 


I was never going to buy RIV
then saw the incentives and bought Riv in Sept
No regrets. Better deal than the other resorts even with resale restrictions to me.

Same here. I was only interested in resale and decided on VGF. Then I really paid attention to the incentives at RIV, which brought it close to those VGF prices.

If I just wanted to buy for direct benefits, it was close to SSR/OKW prices. Cheaper than them at the higher incentives.

The direct benefits were a bonus, but the incentive is what sold it for me. Resale restrictions and all. Plus I got a fixed week, so now I don't have to compete for studios.
 
Every business in this country has been impacted by COVID, so the cancelling of Reflections should be in no way a the reason someone would state "RIV is not selling well so that is why they canceled Reflections". If fact, as an entertainment company Disney has been more effected than most. This is all about short time cash flow. If anyone buying RIV is really worried about the resale restrictions, just buy the guaranteed week. That way if you sell, the person buying on resale will not ever have to worry about not being able to use there points in a given year.
 
Every business in this country has been impacted by COVID, so the cancelling of Reflections should be in no way a the reason someone would state "RIV is not selling well so that is why they canceled Reflections". If fact, as an entertainment company Disney has been more effected than most. This is all about short time cash flow. If anyone buying RIV is really worried about the resale restrictions, just buy the guaranteed week. That way if you sell, the person buying on resale will not ever have to worry about not being able to use there points in a given year.

That is a smart idea to buy a fixed week in case you want to sell.

Do fixed weeks command a premium in resale?
 
That is a smart idea to buy a fixed week in case you want to sell.

Do fixed weeks command a premium in resale?

To this point, they've come at a bargain. I think that's because most people don't know what they are and/or think you give up flexibility like a traditional timeshare. I recall there were some PVB fixed weeks for sale for a long while and they sold for quite a bit less than PVB alone was selling for at the time.

I would buy a fixed week if it makes sense for your situation, not to preserve theoretical resale value. To this point, there's no evidence it does so. The fact that some are actually doing mental gymnastics to spend extra on a fixed week as a hedge against reduced resale value due to restrictions is really telling.
 
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That is a smart idea to buy a fixed week in case you want to sell.

Do fixed weeks command a premium in resale?
I remember watching a Poly contract a while back that was listed. It was a guaranteed week and was gradually reduced to probably $10-15 below other similar contracts. I was wondering why it would sit when others were selling but I think it's like @striker1064 said, people think they are tied to that week.
 
I remember watching a Poly contract a while back that was listed. It was a guaranteed week and was gradually reduced to probably $10-15 below other similar contracts. I was wondering why it would sit when others were selling but I think it's like @striker1064 said, people think they are tied to that week.
You must be right. It doesn’t really make sense that a FW would be LESS valuable.
 
Are you suggesting sales are going badly, SETH? 😉

Haha not as well then if they had removed them. Looks like worse offerings but means they likely expect to be lite on sales projections. Could also mean that they expect CCV to sell out and drop those incentives so they wanted at least something to go along with RIV at WDW.

That would be a bad look if they said incentives were going away and then went back on that. Incentives always go through fluctuations. It feeds the FOMO cycle. Great incentives (and Riviera saw its best ever this summer) are always, invariably, followed by less appealing incentives.

Does Disney really ever bring back "better incentives" though? Asking because from everything I always saw price always just keeps creeping up. What I guess I mean is lower total price because $10 off $200 is worse that $5 off $180.

You must know something DVD doesn't then. In case you didn't notice, they fired a bunch of people. They shelved Reflections, after spending tons of cash on marketing and starting construction. This is a massive, years-long decision to steer the Titanic away from an iceburg, costing money and jobs, and it takes a long time to undo it. They wouldn't have shelved Reflections if they didn't think this was going poorly. Shelving Reflections means RIV will be the only (new) WDW property for sale for a looong time and DVD expects several years to sell out. Maybe they can slap some paint on Yacht Club or Jambo if we magically go back to normal.

I mean, sure, people bought with the incentives, and those deals were good! Maybe even more people bought than we expected, but let's not pretend like this is going well. DVD's actions obviously show it isn't.

In case you didnt know there is a pandemic, hardly no one is traveling, there is recession in the air, WDW was closed for months, DL/VGC is still closed, Aluani closed for months and WDW is likely at 25% capacity for the next 6-12 months.

None of that has anything to do with Riviera selling badly. That is a concept that DVC in general is going to see a slowdown in sales. Also the layoffs were a general number and did not specify positions (think of every single person located in VGC, Aulani, and DLC that physically can not work).

They also shelved Mary Poppins and the new event center at Epcot guess that is on Riviera as well right? Its completely illogical to attached Riviera sales to what Disney is taking as actions during the current pandemic and resulting economy exiting it.

They could drop the point charts to match BLT (Std/Lake), drop the resale restrictions, and give free APs for the first year and guess what? They still would be laying people off, putting a hold on Reflections, and all other actions that still pending.

This is all relative and I can fairly easily tell who has not worked in larger sales based rolls dealing with projections, quotas, and goals.

If Riviera were selling out soon and Disney anticipated big sales, Reflections would still be on, just like DL Tower is. Reflections getting shelved is the direct consequence of Riviera sales and projected sales. A DL Tower level of anticipated sales would mean the construction would go on, like in DL, where there isn't even an open date.

Prior to COVID after 12 months (only being open for 3) it was outpacing VGF which sold out the quickest in DVC history. The #1 and #2 sales months both were post opening (Jan/March) when people could see the resort finally. In addition it was on pace to sell out in 2022. I forget when was reflections supposed to launch? Seems like it was 2022. So it was dead on pace for where DVC was projecting it.

You are not going to increase sales between March and now based on everything going on. None of this is attached to Riviera instead is just attached to where the world is.

It would be stupid for Disney to continue Reflections based on the current environment because they can always fast track the resort later if they need to in 2021/22/23.
 
I'm not sure why no one is willing to state the obvious, that the whole situation is bad. If DVD thought they could sell RIV out, even in a couple more years, Reflections would still be on deck.

Correct which is what I have been saying since the start when I was laughing about these comments. Its all about the situation and expectations of where sales should be. The current situation is by far from good for selling a ton of DVC points regardless of the resort, pricing, benefits, or terms.

My whole point is people want to say "Riviera is selling bad". Well no it is likely not selling bad for the expectations that management have for it during the current times.

You can't say chili is selling bad when its 90 degrees out side and you run a soup stand and chicken noodle will not be selling either. That is not on chili that is simply the market conditions for your product.
 
I remember watching a Poly contract a while back that was listed. It was a guaranteed week and was gradually reduced to probably $10-15 below other similar contracts. I was wondering why it would sit when others were selling but I think it's like @striker1064 said, people think they are tied to that week.

Depends on where you would sell it. You could choose to not disclose until you have an offer. You could also have the agent put in language for the listing like "optional week 49 in a studio for greater ease and flexibility".

Also might just have to sit on it a little while longer to find the right buyer who knows the value of it. At Poly though there isn't much of an incentive since its so easy to get rooms. Something like VGF/CCV at Christmas or RIV Studios (from restrictions) though I think are a little different. Who knows.
 
Does Disney really ever bring back "better incentives" though? Asking because from everything I always saw price always just keeps creeping up. What I guess I mean is lower total price because $10 off $200 is worse that $5 off $180.

I would have to dig on this, but I think I recall CCV incentives later in sales that were effectively better (above a certain points level) than pre-sales, but that was the first time that had happened. And of course it happened again with RIV this year.
 
I would have to dig on this, but I think I recall CCV incentives later in sales that were effectively better (above a certain points level) than pre-sales, but that was the first time that had happened. And of course it happened again with RIV this year.
The summer incentives resulted in the lowest price offered for RIV. It gave a good discount on CCV but that was partly offset by the $220 starting price tag. I do want to say there was an incentive offered in 2018 that made CCV lower than the initial incentive but I’d have to double check.

The summer incentives were largely driven by DVC Sales being closed for 4 months with no direct sales. As much as we’d all love great incentives again I’m sure we all hope there won’t be a spike in cases or another pandemic resulting in closures again.

It is always possible for lower incentives to come out, but I think we’d need to see a huge dip in sales or another precipitating event (another closure, economic recession, etc) for it to happen. I think the next round of incentives will be the same or a little less. Though of course I could be wrong!
 
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