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Sandisw · Oct 23, 2020

Lorana said:
The summer incentives resulted in the lowest price offered for RIV. It gave a good discount on CCV but that was partly offset by the $220 starting price tag. I do want to say there was an incentive offered in 2018 that made CCV lower than the initial incentive but I’d have to double check.

The summer incentives were largely driven by DVC Sales being closed for 4 months with no direct sales. As much as we’d all love great incentives again I’m sure we all hope there won’t be a spike in cases or another pandemic resulting in closures again.

It is always possible for lower incentives to come out, but I think we’d need to see a huge dip in sales or another precipitating event (another closure, economic recession, etc) for it to happen. I think the next round of incentives will be the same or a little less. Though of course I could be wrong!

I know at the higher levels they we’re but I think I paid a few dollars less last year because the base prices was $188. My 175 cost me $167...that was before my DD CM discount so I actually paid less but that doesn’t count since not everyone gets that

But, since they did not extend the summer incentives, I think they were okay with sales and it seems like they continue to be good given current climate.

striker1064 · Oct 23, 2020

Lorana said:
I do want to say there was an incentive offered in 2018 that made CCV lower than the initial incentive but I’d have to double check.

This is what I'm remembering. It's definitely not the most recent incentives because as you said, they were offset by the $220 price tag. It was when CCV was $182 I think. Should've bought a bunch back then.

Bing Showei · Oct 23, 2020

Sandisw said:
But, since they did not extend the summer incentives, I think they were okay with sales and it seems like they continue to be good given current climate.

I'm sure sales were fine, but I wouldn't draw that conclusion based on incentive behaviors. They set a deadline for the Summer incentives and it would look bad to not lower them after screaming "Act now! Prices go up on SUNDAY, SUNDAY, SUNDAY!!!"

Historically, incentives go through peeks and valleys and they don't offer two consecutive increasing incentive periods (see chart below).

sethschroeder said:
Does Disney really ever bring back "better incentives" though? Asking because from everything I always saw price always just keeps creeping up. What I guess I mean is lower total price because $10 off $200 is worse that $5 off $180.

Barring a major economic downturn (which I would not necessarily discount), I suspect the prices this past summer may be the best we see. That's not to say we won't see prices that come close. Historically, net prices do not just always go up over time. In fact they tend to stay pretty close to initial offering price.

With CCV, the cost per point with incentives were as follows over time. Lowest price in RED.

Date

175 Points - $/point

% change over previous period

250 Points - $/point

% change over previous period

300 Points - $/point

% change over previous period

Apr 2017 ($176/point)

$166.00

$160.00

$160.17

Jun 2017

$166.49

+0.30%

$162.96

+1.85%

$162.46

+1.43%

Nov 2017*

$158.86

-7.99%

$158.50

-2.74%

160.16

-1.42%

Feb 2018 ($182/point)

$164.86

+3.78%

$162.00

+2.21%

$160.33

+0.11%

May 2018

$170.57

+3.46%

$168.00

+3.46%

$165.33

+3.12%

Nov 2018

$163.14

-4.36%

$162.40

-3.33%

$160.67

-2.82%

Feb 2019 ($188/point)

$173.71

+6.48%

$172.00

+5.91%

$171.33

+6.63%

Mar 2019

$172.29

-0.82%

$171.00

-0.58%

$169.50

-1.08%

Apr 2019

$180.86

+4.97%

$180.00

+5.26%

$178.00

+5.01%

Jun 2020 ($210/point)

$195.00

$185.00

$180.00

Prices tend to hover within a certain range of, and actually ~~came~~ stayed pretty close to, and in ~~one~~ every case, did dip below opening day sale prices.

What I think the historical incentivized prices above reflects is that Disney is conducting a brilliant PSYOP that plays strongly on consumer FOMO while not varying the cost to buy in all that much. The incentives this past summer were amazing and it would take a catastrophe for Disney to diverge from the past practice of lowering incentives after a "peek" incentive offering.

*ETA - thanks to @Lorana who identified one missed incentive which happened to be the lowest prices the resort saw over its lifetime.

Lorana · Oct 23, 2020

Bing Showei said:
I'm sure sales were fine, but I wouldn't draw that conclusion based on incentive behaviors. They set a deadline for the Summer incentives and it would look bad to not lower them after screaming "Act now! Prices go up on SUNDAY, SUNDAY, SUNDAY!!!"

Historically, incentives go through peeks and valleys and they don't offer two consecutive increasing incentive periods (see chart below).

Barring a major economic downturn (which I would not necessarily discount), I suspect the prices this past summer may be the best we see. That's not to say we won't see prices that come close. Historically, net prices do not just always go up over time. In fact they tend to stay pretty close to initial offering price.

With CCV, the cost per point with incentives were as follows over time. Lowest price in RED.

Date 175 Points - $/point % change over previous period 250 Points - $/point % change over previous period 300 Points - $/point % change over previous period
Apr 2017 ($176/point) $166.00 $160.00 $160.17
Jun 2017 $166.49

+0.30%

$162.96 +1.85% $162.46 +1.43%
Feb 2018 ($182/point) $164.86 -0.98% $162.00 -0.98% $160.33 -1.31%
May 2018 $170.57 +3.46% $168.00 +3.46% $165.33 +3.12%
Nov 2018 $163.14 -4.36% $162.40 -3.33% $160.67 -2.82%
Feb 2019 ($188/point) $173.71 +6.48% $172.00 +5.91% $171.33 +6.63%
Mar 2019 $172.29 -0.82% $171.00 -0.58% $169.50 -1.08%
Apr 2019 $180.86 +4.97% $180.00 +5.26% $178.00 +5.01%
Jun 2020 ($210/point) $195.00 $185.00 $180.00

Prices tend to hover within a certain range of, and actually came pretty close to (in one case, did dip below) opening day sale prices. With the first price increase in 2018, incentives were jacked up to effectively lower the cost to buy in after the prices went up.

What I think the historical incentivized prices above reflects is that Disney is conducting a brilliant PSYOP that plays strongly on consumer FOMO while not varying the cost to buy in all that much. The incentives this past summer were amazing and it would take a catastrophe for Disney to diverge from the past practice of lowering incentives after a "peek" incentive offering.

Do you have the prices for existing members (I think those were new, correct?)?

For example, the winter 2017 incentives made CCV $164.33 at 150 points, $158.86 at 175 points, $158.50 at 200 points.

Bing Showei · Oct 23, 2020

Lorana said:
Do you have the prices for existing members (I think those were new, correct?)?

For example, the winter 2017 incentives made CCV $164.33 at 150 points, $158.86 at 175 points, $158.50 at 200 points.

Those were November 2017 incentives which I forgot to include.

How did you get the $158.50 @ 200 points? Can you PM me a link to the source? I'm going off of DVCNews and that only listed points at 125, 175, 250, 300.

I can go back and put those back in.

Lorana · Oct 23, 2020

Bing Showei said:
Those were November 2017 incentives which I forgot to include.

How did you get the $158.50 @ 200 points? Can you PM me a link to the source? I'm going off of DVCNews and that only listed points at 125, 175, 250, 300.

I can go back and put those back in.

(EDITED) - Apparently I cannot share the site that I found the info on. If you google CCV Winter 2017 Direct Incentives, you should find several links about the new and existing member incentives.

i<3riviera · Nov 1, 2020

RivShore · Nov 1, 2020

i<3riviera said:
most popular use year was Dec with 150 contracts (19% of all contracts)

least popular use year was Sep with 62 contracts (7.9% of all contracts)

Always look forward to your data @i<3riviera !

Do you have the use year breakout to date for Riviera for all 12 months?

Thanks!

i<3riviera · Nov 1, 2020

i<3riviera · Nov 14, 2020

TinkB278 · Nov 14, 2020

i<3riviera said:
direct DVC sales statistics (index of prior months)

mid-month flash

recording dates 2020-11-01 to 2020-11-15

resort deeds points % points
AKV
19
2,077
5.5%
BCV
3
250
0.7%
BLT
3
425
1.1%
BRV
0
0
0.0%
BWV
7
595
1.6%
CCV
36
5,723
15.1%
OKW
19
2,296
6.1%
PVB
2
175
0.5%
RVA
138
23,945
63.2%
SSR
21
1,400
3.7%
VGF
9
998
2.6%
257
37,884

14 split contracts consisting of 4,135 points (11% of all points) and 38 deeds (15% of all deeds)

contracts (grouping split deeds)

type of contract contract % contracts points % points
initial
112
48%
19,083
50%
add-on
121
52%
18,801
50%

233

37,884

2 guaranteed weeks recorded for a total of 281 points

CCV deluxe studio - shower week #49 for 118 points

RVA deluxe studio - preferred week #41 for 163 points

delay from effective date (presumably when someone tells their guide they want to purchase though potentially before the signing date if they don't sign same day) to recording date (recorded with Orange county Florida); I've included previous data for reference
View attachment 538272

That’s my fixed week! :love:

UrsulaWantsYourSoul · Nov 14, 2020

TinkB278 said:
That’s my fixed week!

It's fun to see yourself show up in @i<3riviera 's stats! Congrats on your fixed week! Welcome Home!

jccarney · Nov 15, 2020

My first DVC deed (AKL) is there too

Doberge · Nov 15, 2020

Doberge said:
FWIW, the big sale only lasted about half the month. Also, a number of us here that purchased spread out payments so we have delayed closings and wouldn't appear in these numbers.

We finally closed from spread payments from the big summer discount, so that'll be another 200 points to boost November.

As an aside, I was surprised that we were recorded like 48 hours after final payment.

Doberge · Nov 15, 2020

i<3riviera said:
[*]oldest effective date was 15 Feb 2020 recorded 29 Oct 2020

How does this happen?

Lorana · Nov 16, 2020

Doberge said:
FWIW, the big sale only lasted about half the month. Also, a number of us here that purchased spread out payments so we have delayed closings and wouldn't appear in these numbers.

Doberge said:
We finally closed from spread payments from the big summer discount, so that'll be another 200 points to boost November.

As an aside, I was surprised that we were recorded like 48 hours after final payment.

My final payments are late November, so I imagine mine will close early December.

i<3riviera · Nov 17, 2020

sethschroeder · Nov 17, 2020

Interesting I wonder how much the point minimum requirement at BLT has to do with all of this. BLT would also be the first monorail/walking resort to MK as well.

Shows how well BLT sold out of the gate.

RoseGold · Nov 17, 2020

Impressive how much VGF is selling direct! That price is crazy!!

i<3riviera · Nov 18, 2020

resort	deeds	points	% points
AKV	19	2,077	5.5%
BCV	3	250	0.7%
BLT	3	425	1.1%
BRV	0	0	0.0%
BWV	7	595	1.6%
CCV	36	5,723	15.1%
OKW	19	2,296	6.1%
PVB	2	175	0.5%
RVA	138	23,945	63.2%
SSR	21	1,400	3.7%
VGF	9	998	2.6%
	257	37,884

type of contract	contract	% contracts	points	% points
initial	112	48%	19,083	50%
add-on	121	52%	18,801	50%
	233		37,884

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