This year's dues were determined late last year. This year's dues apply to all operational costs incurred in 2020 and to an estimated addition to capital reserves for the year for future capital improvements (e.g., refurbs). They were payable in full by mid-Feb 2020. Though many are paying monthly, what they owed and what they would pay for this year was absolutely determined by the beginning of the year.
You will receive a dues statement for 2021 in late December 2020. That statement will apply to all expected costs in 2021 and will not apply to any excess costs or savings in 2020 except as follows:
If actual 2020 property taxes end up being lower than provided by the 2020 budget, the savings will be used to offset the amount of property taxes estimated for 2021, thus lowering dues somewhat. However, if the actual property taxes for 2020 exceed the budgeted amount, the excess amount will be added to dues for 2021, thus raising dues somewhat. One concern is that the local government agencies may attempt in 2021 to recover some of the lost revenues, which is likely to occur because of the pandemic, by raising property taxes payable in 2021, which could result in higher dues in the future.
If the budgeted amounts (except for the property taxes) exceed the actual costs for 2020, a possibility resulting from the coronavirus pandemic and resulting closure of the resorts, any excess goes into the capital reserves budget. That could possibly lead to a lowering of dues in 2021 because the capital reserves budget for 2021 may not need to be as high as usual because of the addition that might occur from savings from 2020 operational costs. Whether there will actually be lower operational costs than budgeted in 2020 is an unknown at this time. The closure of the resorts likely results in some savings of costs but many costs will still be incurred, e.g., you still need to buy many supplies because the lawns will still be cut, needed repairs will likely still occur, special disinfecting operations to the resorts may add costs. Moreover, the employees will continue to be paid their wages and benefits. Under the Property Management Subcontract (a document you need to spoecifically request a copy of from DVC because it is not included in the POS documents given to purchasers), all the employees at the resorts are employees of the Disney resorts and parks company not DVC, except possibly for those in the DVD sales centers, and there are actually some, like the valet personnel, who are employees of outside contractors and not Disney. Under the Property Management Subcontract, DVC agrees to pay Disney a reasonable and equitable share (the actual percentage or total amount is not specified) of the total employee costs based on the proportion of budgeted amounts of employees and services to be provided to DVC resorts. In any event, if there is any savings from the budgeted amounts for 2020, such will only go to possibly keep the capital reserves amount for 2021 lower than anticipated. It does not appear from the subcontract that DVCM could refuse to pay the employee costs incurred as a result of Disney's decision to pay employees while the parks and resorts are closed.
There is also some risk that total 2020 costs could be higher than the budgeted costs for a DVC resort. As permitted by statute, DVC annually provides a guarantee that if actual costs (other than for property taxes) in the year exceed the budgeted costs, DVD will cover the difference. That allows DVD to avoid paying annual dues for portions of the resort owned by it but not sold (e.g., on all the property/points DVC is holding as a result of exercising ROFR while being held until a future sale). That guarantee thus means if normal costs exceed the annual budgeted costs, DVD absorbs the difference. However, one exception to that guarantee are costs resulting from a natural disaster or an act of God which are not covered by insurance. The coronavirus pandemic, can be considered such a natural disaster or an act of God. The uninsured costs could either be assessed via a special assessment or added to the next year's budget (or even other future years), something that has occurred in he past for Vero and Hilton Head as a result of hurricanes for portions of repairs that fall within insurance deductibles. It is doubtful DVC has insurance to cover additional losses and expenses caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Some have mentioned that it has business interruption insurance that could apply but that is unlikely because such insurance is generally limited to losses resulting from "physical damage to property" caused by a natural disaster or act of God, e.g., the lost income incurred while repairing physical damage to a place of business that is closed while such repairs occur. Thus, while members may be thinking costs will be saved by the closure of the resorts, DVC could raise next year's dues by uninsured amounts incurred because of the coronavirus pandemic, e.g., those costs to disinfect the resorts, additional resort administrative costs to deal with the pandemic, possibly others.
Bottom line is that whether 2021 dues will be impacted is currently an unknown and one should not be currently assuming the costs for 2020 will necessarily lower 2021 dues simply because the resorts are currently closed.
