Future Use of Points - Post Covid-19 Closure

abner1776

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 24, 2006
I know most people now are concerned about their existing reservations with expiring points, banking issue and borrowed points but I am thinking about what the future will bring as far as availability of rooms.

Best case is the resorts and parks re-open mid-May which means we have almost 8 weeks worth of points that have not been used and most of those points are going back into the "pool" of points that members will want to use to book vacations in the future...meaning 2020 and 2021 and some overlap to 2022.

Booking rooms at many resorts has become a "9am at the 11 month or 7 month" process in the best of times but now we have this huge pool of points being dumped back into the market for which the market cannot expand(add more rooms) to handle the huge influx of points.

What options does DVD have at their disposal to handle this huge influx of points ?
 
The only thing that the POS allows is the suspension of banking and/or borrowing.

Since this is an unprecedented situation, and that’s a lot of rooms out of service, this is going to cause a problem.

But, Disney does own points, and has points that were acquired through ROFR. That should help some,

What I think it might do is cause people to book larger rooms than before as they will have extra points.
 
It sounds strange (after photos of mad Spring Break behavior) but humans generally are good at judging risk. The mature people out there are probably not booking vacations for Fall 2020 when people may still be getting ill, but are the people now banking their 2020 points on the assumption that the picture in respect of pandemic infections will not be clear until much later in the year.

Edit: just to add that this helps DVC plan because they have a clearer idea of what the market for points is going to look like.
 
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How bad the situation will be depends to a great extent on how long this park closure lasts. If the resorts and parks actually open in May, or even as late as mid-June, the effect might be barely noticeable.

The number of members who can actually make reservations is not changing. This is occurring during DVC's low to moderate demand time of the year at WDW. Those losing reservations now will do little to add to the demand for the fall 2020 season simply because most of that fall season is already booked particularly for high demand rooms like studios at near park resorts. Moreover, as to the rooms with extreme 11-month issues such as AKV club level and value studios and BWV standard studios, no one is going to see it getting worse simply because it cannot get any worse, e.g., the rooms are already fully booked right at 8 a.m. at 11-months out, or even shortly before 11-months out; they are not suddenly going to start disappearing at 12 months out.

Likely, a large percentage of the those losing reservations now, who will have current use year points returned (and can be banked) and borrowed points returned to their original use year, are going to be attempting to make new reservations next year during the same lower spring time demand period. Many of those will try for the same size rooms they usually get, possibly for longer stays, and thus add somewhat to demand for the spring period, but they are still going to be able to get their rooms, even studios, other than ones that already have a real 11-month issue, at and beyond 11-months out at home resorts, e.g., many of those rooms may disappear a little quicker than before but members should still have plenty of time into the 11-month window to make the reservation. Moreover, a lot of those members are likely to use their extra points to reserve bigger rooms, such as 1BRs which have historically been open well beyond the 7-month window during the spring season. Those 1BRs might disappear somewhat quicker into the 7 -month window, but otherwise there should not be a significant change in being able get the room.

Thus, my sense is that the current closure and return of points is not going to lead to some major and noticeable future booking problems, which do not already exist, as long as this is not a very long-term closure.

As to what DVC can actually do to correct any such newly caused skewed demand, the answer is probably not much. Note, it is already doing what it is supposed to do deal with the existing excess demand problem, by raising the points needed in 2021 for fall seaon and lowering it in other seasons that have lower demand. It could make another such adjustment for 2022, which would likely result in significantly minimizing the possible impact the current closure might have on the current high demand seasons, e.g., all those extra points being saved now will not suddenly become ones that will create more excess demand for the fall season in 2021 or after.

There is actually another remedy, which most members would probably be against, but that DVC could adopt if it appears any new skewed demand has a significant impact on the 7-month reservation window. Unbeknownst to many, the limitation to making seasonal demand changes, and to keeping total points needed to reserve rooms the same for the year, applies only to the 11-month home resort reservation period. BVTC, which is in charge of setting points needed for 7-months out, and to date has done nothing more than simply accept the 11-month charts created by DVCM, can, to correct excess demand at 7-months out, create its own point charts which are not subject to the rule that total points needed to reserve rooms for the year cannot exceed the total existing points. For example, if it sees some new excess demand at 7-months out for any parts of the year for studios resulting from the coronavirus closures, it could simply put out a new 7-month point chart applicable to owners of one resort trying to reserve another resort, that raises the nightly point cost for studios for those periods of excess demand, while not lowering points at all elsewhere in the point chart. Though I believe that is not likely to happen, it is one of the possible "surprises" members could get if many start demanding that the modern DVC make changes to deal with any excess demand problem resulting from the return-of-points created by the coronavirus closures.
 


So, that would mean, for example, if I want to use my SSR points at 7 months at another resort, my cost would be more than a home resort owners ability to book there,

Interesting concept and could be something that would be better than suspending any banking and borrowing.

Always a wealth of knowledge @drusba !
 
Here's a fun idea: Perhaps DVC/DVD would consider extending each contract to the same extent each underling resort was closed/unavailable. Perhaps there is a model for DVC similar to the treatment currently offered to APs?
 
Here's a fun idea: Perhaps DVC/DVD would consider extending each contract to the same extent each underling resort was closed/unavailable. Perhaps there is a model for DVC similar to the treatment currently offered to APs?
Don't think they can do that as contract length is tied to the underlying lease. Rmember what happened when they extended the OKW contract? Lots & lots of admin time & paperwork involved.

Also, a couple of months extension 20+ years down the road isn't going to help those of us who probably won't be traveling by then.
 


Here's a fun idea: Perhaps DVC/DVD would consider extending each contract to the same extent each underling resort was closed/unavailable. Perhaps there is a model for DVC similar to the treatment currently offered to APs?

even without considering the implications it would make to the point system it would cause too much administrative work for that short of a closure.

Even with 6 months of closure I Do not think they could nor would they even consider it.
 
even without considering the implications it would make to the point system it would cause too much administrative work for that short of a closure.

Even with 6 months of closure I Do not think they could nor would they even consider it.

Not to mention that those “extra rooms” wouldn’t be back in inventory for 22 to 50 years, Points can still only be extended for an extra year,

What you might see, depending on the length, is a harder time getting larger rooms because people have extra points,

I may be upgrading my June trip if May is a no go since I will have points beyond banking as well as borrowed points, even though that trip will just be us 2!
 
There is actually another remedy, which most members would probably be against, but that DVC could adopt if it appears any new skewed demand has a significant impact on the 7-month reservation window. Unbeknownst to many, the limitation to making seasonal demand changes, and to keeping total points needed to reserve rooms the same for the year, applies only to the 11-month home resort reservation period. BVTC, which is in charge of setting points needed for 7-months out, and to date has done nothing more than simply accept the 11-month charts created by DVCM, can, to correct excess demand at 7-months out, create its own point charts which are not subject to the rule that total points needed to reserve rooms for the year cannot exceed the total existing points.
Interesting, so just raise the point cost of the Bora Bora Bungalows to chew up the extra points, and problem solved!

Just kidding, very informative post, thank you.


May not be the most popular solution as you said, but might not be the worst idea either. To be honest, If I had to pay a little premium to switch out at 7 months to a "more desirable" resort, I would not complain(If it were temporary, I might be upset if it were permanent) Now people who just like to book anywhere at less than 7 months might, but no system or solution is going to be perfect.
 
......(snip)...........May not be the most popular solution as you said, but might not be the worst idea either. To be honest, If I had to pay a little premium to switch out at 7 months to a "more desirable" resort, I would not complain(If it were temporary, I might be upset if it were permanent) Now people who just like to book anywhere at less than 7 months might, but no system or solution is going to be perfect.
I actually like this idea, especially if DVCMC decides to waive banking rules (in addition to putting borrowed points back) for reservations cancelled during the closure. Probably wouldn't need to be in effect for more than a year or two.
 
I actually like this idea, especially if DVCMC decides to waive banking rules (in addition to putting borrowed points back) for reservations cancelled during the closure. Probably wouldn't need to be in effect for more than a year or two.
I think its the best solution I have read. I like that it makes it a choice in most cases. Staying for a week at your home resort but want to switch to resort X? Ok, 10 more points for the week on top of what it would normally cost (or whatever the number may be)

Only question is how much availability will be available at 7 months. (Also hope their computer systems can handle that business rule) but neither of those facts are germane to the premise of the solution.
 
I actually like this idea, especially if DVCMC decides to waive banking rules (in addition to putting borrowed points back) for reservations cancelled during the closure. Probably wouldn't need to be in effect for more than a year or two.

I agree! would definitely help with long term but also allow them to Make some more popular short terms solutions too!

Now that we know it’s an indefinite closure...it’s going to take some creative thought.
 
2 ideas:
1. Extend all Dvc contracts with one more year of points and call 2020 a wash.
2. go ahead and open the new DVC at Riviera and new one planned at old river country site. Put a 1 year moratorium on selling New points and let anyone book at those with their home resort for one year, thus making more space for the points that couldn’t be used.
 
I actually like this idea, especially if DVCMC decides to waive banking rules (in addition to putting borrowed points back) for reservations cancelled during the closure. Probably wouldn't need to be in effect for more than a year or two.

The trouble is that once implemented, DVC won't retract it, especially if means more points will disappear when people trade out at 7 months.

LAX
 
Interesting, so just raise the point cost of the Bora Bora Bungalows to chew up the extra points, and problem solved!

Just kidding, very informative post, thank you.


May not be the most popular solution as you said, but might not be the worst idea either. To be honest, If I had to pay a little premium to switch out at 7 months to a "more desirable" resort, I would not complain(If it were temporary, I might be upset if it were permanent) Now people who just like to book anywhere at less than 7 months might, but no system or solution is going to be perfect.
 
How about lower the Bora Bora points temporarily since it doesn't seem that they are usually booked. Maybe just charge the same as a 2 bedroom to families that may lose points because of all this.
 
How about lower the Bora Bora points temporarily since it doesn't seem that they are usually booked. Maybe just charge the same as a 2 bedroom to families that may lose points because of all this.
I think you have it backwards. It appears there will be a shortage of inventory. Booking open nights at Poly Bungalows will rapidly soak up your points. Perhaps your trip might be one night in Bora Bora and 6 nights with a cash discount at a value or moderate
 
I find it very interesting that DVD addressed many of the issues today that members were having on cancellations, banking, borrowing, etc...except the issue of what to do with points that are now expiring and they basically acknowledged that these points subject to this closure period could have an impact on future room availability.
 
I think you have it backwards. It appears there will be a shortage of inventory. Booking open nights at Poly Bungalows will rapidly soak up your points. Perhaps your trip might be one night in Bora Bora and 6 nights with a cash discount at a value or moderate
 

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