How good/bad a job has your state done at flattening the curve?

[kdonnel]

This site, https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections, will let you select your state from the drop down and see how good or bad a job your state citizens have done at flattening the curve, the results appear poor to extremely poor with a few outliers of greatness.

Take a look at Iowa. It looks like the place to be!

Looking at New York I can see why people have fled the state.

Another thing to notice is when the peak occurs from state to state. Some states are projected to be dealing with this until mid July. Will the nation need to remain in the current state of lock down through early August? Otherwise will we see a short relaxed period followed by another 3-5 month lock down?

Everyone ready for the current status quo to remain in place for another five months?

 

[JimMIA]

I don't think any state has come close to flattening the curve yet.

I don't think any state has actually seen the worst of the curve yet.

Looking at New York, I'll get all salty and snarky when my state (FL) meets its test and masters it. Until then, I realize that NY is doing the best they can with a crisis nobody has the playbook for.

I wish them well.

I also wish Iowa and the other 48 states well.

We're all in this together.

...Right?

 

[design_mom]

Our governor (Ohio) and health department director had a news conference today and someone asked them about this projection. This projection is much more "rosy" than what they're telling us to prepare for. I was trying to listen and work from home at the same time so I didn't catch everything, but they said something about these projections being statistical but not epidemiological... in short, it's one way to look at the data but they didn't think that it was the appropriate way to look at it in this particular case.

Or maybe they're worried that Ohioans will see this "rosy" forecast and think we can let our guard down... Ohio has been pretty aggressive. Hopefully it will be enough.

I hope these projections are correct, but...

 

[Krandor]

Our governer is doing a horrible job and I voted for him. Still won't lockdown the state because "not all counties have cases" leaving it up to individual cities and counties.

 

[hereyago]

I am in Virginia and our Governor (also a physician) announced today a Stay At Home order.

Honestly, a little too late. I also believe that when this all started that ALL states should have done it same time.

I can go to the beach to fish and exercise lol.

 

[Farro]

Illinois projections of bed shortages dont look too bad actually! We will see what really happens.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I think these estimates are very optimistic. I am okay with that, but they do not seem to reflect the reality that people are still doing stupid things in large groups.

 

[disneychrista]

My County is excelling at it, apparently. So far we have 4 positives and they are all from contact with someone who was also diagnosed with COVID-19. No community spread (yet).

 

[mnrose]

These estimates for my state do not match the modeling done by our flagship University (home of Dr. Michael Osterholm of the Joe Rogan interview posted widely on line, and even here). I don't know how much credence to give it I'll take the U's modeling as being more accurate of what may happen here. And, that is a peak that is 2-3 weeks later than predicted by this model, and a severe shortage of beds/equipment.

 

[kymom99]

Kentucky is rockin it

 

[Boardwalk Jedi]

This site, https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections, will let you select your state from the drop down and see how good or bad a job your state citizens have done at flattening the curve, the results appear poor to extremely poor with a few outliers of greatness.

Take a look at Iowa. It looks like the place to be!

Looking at New York I can see why people have fled the state.

Another thing to notice is when the peak occurs from state to state. Some states are projected to be dealing with this until mid July. Will the nation need to remain in the current state of lock down through early August? Otherwise will we see a short relaxed period followed by another 3-5 month lock down?

Everyone ready for the current status quo to remain in place for another five months?

I don't think we can say one state is doing better when one is significantly larger and a more popular place to live. (Not sure if popular is the word btw).

 

[ChrisFL]

This site, https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections, will let you select your state from the drop down and see how good or bad a job your state citizens have done at flattening the curve, the results appear poor to extremely poor with a few outliers of greatness.

Take a look at Iowa. It looks like the place to be!

Looking at New York I can see why people have fled the state.

Another thing to notice is when the peak occurs from state to state. Some states are projected to be dealing with this until mid July. Will the nation need to remain in the current state of lock down through early August? Otherwise will we see a short relaxed period followed by another 3-5 month lock down?

Everyone ready for the current status quo to remain in place for another five months?

The projections for the country overall are outdated as far as beds needed...it seems they updated the deceased count today, but I'd like to see them update the beds needed because it's way lower than projected there (163,000 cases, estimate 80-90% don't need hospital stays then we're looking at only, say 30,000 to 40,000 MAX which is half of their projection for today)

 

[bcla]

It's actually been pretty good. I heard that there were projections that ventilators might be in short supply by now, but that hasn't happened yet. The number are inevitably going to go up, but by that time hopefully more ventilators can be available. There's a company in Silicon Valley that's been recruited to help refurbish ventilators - especially battery powered ones in storage that have have to be fixed up. I understand the most common problem is with the batteries.

https://www.latimes.com/california/...rnia-broken-ventilators-silicon-valley-newsomhttps://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/cor...shifting-gears-to-repair-ventilators/2263619/
I guess one issue is about a state response in a large state. California has the population of several states and multiple areas. Most of California is actually rural. But we have large population centers around San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, and the Central Valley. Until the Governor gave a statewide order, the stay at home orders were issued by counties, with the first one being six counties in the San Francisco Bay Area.

 

[ChrisFL]

I think inevitably this would hit larger cities worse because of closer quarters, more public transport, higher density, etc.

 

[Sammie79]

I’m not sure how accurate these projections can be when we don’t have enough tests for the virus. More data = better accuracy. I’m not a doomsayer but the posted link is too optimistic. The us death rate just doubled in 2 days. The virus spreads exponentially.

 

[bcla]

I think inevitably this would hit larger cities worse because of closer quarters, more public transport, higher density, etc.

Certainly hitting faster. However, when it comes to rural areas it's really just dumb luck whether or not someone transmits it in those areas, and it's been noted that the medical facilities in rural areas may not be able to handle a large proportion of their population requiring mechanical ventilation. A few rural areas have been hit hard. It's inevitably going to spread to those areas in larger numbers, but large cities will be first.

 

[Dan Murphy]

I think our Illinois Governor Pritzker, and Chicago Mayor Lightfoot, are doing a very good job. I think both are being very proactive.

 

[low-key]

Im not sure but if the question was what State has the slowest talking Governor, Ohio wins hands down. He speaks every day, and what it would take a normal person to say in 10 min, it takes him 2 hour and 33 min

 

[Sammie79]

To answer the original question, I think our governor (OH) has done a great job so far. He has been transparent from the beginning about the crisis. He’s a like a grandfather talking to his family when he speaks at his daily conference. Firm but reassuring.

 

[ChrisFL]

I’m not sure how accurate these projections can be when we don’t have enough tests for the virus. More data = better accuracy. I’m not a doomsayer but the posted link is too optimistic. The us death rate just doubled in 2 days. The virus spreads exponentially.

Agreed. I do wish there was some hospital estimates of "These people show the symptoms" but that number could be WAAAAY off from the real figure with how many other types of illnesses show similar symptoms.

Testing has ramped up a lot and I wonder if the flattening we're seeing is mostly from NY while we will see others increase soon