January/February crowds

Louie7080

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Oct 11, 2017
I just read this on a WDW magic thread posted by Len Testa and thought it interesting so posting it here.

"I'm updating this thread to say we've just heard from folks inside Disney that January and February's higher-than-expected crowds were due to staff and capacity cutbacks (also, it wasn't limited to parks & resorts). It's what we suspected. I'm considering this closed."
 
Correct. He wrote the above comment today because I assume he recently heard from some Disney insiders confirmation of what he had discussed months ago. (I should have included that he just posted that comment today).
This is in relation to his report with the Disunplugged he did.

 
Correct. He wrote the above comment today because I assume he recently heard from some Disney insiders confirmation of what he had discussed months ago. (I should have included that he just posted that comment today).
Yes I was posting the link in case other people were confused what you were referring too.
 


This is a bummer. We're going in Feb. And I was able to get all my ADR's past the 180 day window. Even the highly sought ones. I was hoping that would mean fewer people and lower wait times.

Based on this fewer people doesn't mean shorter lines.
 
This is a bummer. We're going in Feb. And I was able to get all my ADR's past the 180 day window. Even the highly sought ones. I was hoping that would mean fewer people and lower wait times.

Based on this fewer people doesn't mean shorter lines.
I think this past year's Jan/Feb wait times were much worse than previous years and maybe Disney was pushing staff reductions to an extreme to see what they could get away with? Len Testa remarked on that other thread that it was a "disaster" and that he doesn't think it will happen again.
 


This is a bummer. We're going in Feb. And I was able to get all my ADR's past the 180 day window. Even the highly sought ones. I was hoping that would mean fewer people and lower wait times.

Based on this fewer people doesn't mean shorter lines.
Correct although Disney may correctly staff the parks this coming January and February.
 
We were there in January and it was a good trip. Now we only made the mistake of going once in February near president's day. That was like 4th of July
 
I'm going to keep positive. We're going Feb 6th to the 11th. I'm hoping the art festival will be going. Most of my favorite Disney memories are when we've slowed down and enjoyed the moment. Not the time spent on the actual rides.
 
I don't know about that. July and August hasn't been as crazy crowded as in years past.
I agree. We went January 28-Feb 5 this year and it was far more crowded than the trip we took the week of July 21 this year. Summer weather is rough, but the crowds aren't bad at all lately.
 
I don't know about that. July and August hasn't been as crazy crowded as in years past.

I agree with this. I was there the last week of January/first week of February this year, and I was also there three weeks ago. The August crowds were way more manageable than the crowds we saw this winter. I really dislike the humidity, but I'd take Florida in August to have those kinds of crowds again.
 
I agree with this. I was there the last week of January/first week of February this year, and I was also there three weeks ago. The August crowds were way more manageable than the crowds we saw this winter. I really dislike the humidity, but I'd take Florida in August to have those kinds of crowds again.
Yep! Didn't you think that the crowds in late January/early February seemed a lot larger than could be accounted for Touring Plans explanation? Because the lines were long, but there were also just so many people everywhere. I remember sitting on a bench in Tomorrowland one day and having people literally stepping and walking on me because it was so crowded. I've never experienced anything like that before, which makes me wonder if it was a perfect storm of much higher crowds than anticipated along with Disney experimenting with staffing and ride capacity.
 
Yep! Didn't you think that the crowds in late January/early February seemed a lot larger than could be accounted for Touring Plans explanation? Because the lines were long, but there were also just so many people everywhere. I remember sitting on a bench in Tomorrowland one day and having people literally stepping and walking on me because it was so crowded. I've never experienced anything like that before, which makes me wonder if it was a perfect storm of much higher crowds than anticipated along with Disney experimenting with staffing and ride capacity.

I just remember being really surprised at how busy it was. We had gone the February before and it wasn't nearly as crowded. It made me realize I put way too much trust in the TP crowd calendars. I will be back in February and I'm hoping to see it a little less crowded...at the very least I will be prepared if it's not!
 
I just remember being really surprised at how busy it was. We had gone the February before and it wasn't nearly as crowded. It made me realize I put way too much trust in the TP crowd calendars. I will be back in February and I'm hoping to see it a little less crowded...at the very least I will be prepared if it's not!
It could have been a fluke - I hope crowds are better for you next year!!!
 
I was there January/February this year and it was terrible. And while it was obvious they had cut back on ride capacity, it still felt like there were a lot of people there. The walkways, the transportation, the restaurants - it was all swamped.

I was there at the end of February/beginning of March and didn't think it was terrible, BUT it's worth noting I'm a Disneyland regular, so I expect large crowds at Disney, period.
 
This is my personal take on TP crowd predictions: if they are within one crowd level, I feel they did a pretty good job. I often look at how they did resort wide and to me they usually do a good job predicting and are usually within 1 crowd level (they base crowd levels on wait times so not a true crowd prediction but still a good way to get at that... not going to argue if it is the best way).

From about 1-17 to 2-10 (roughly 3 weeks) they often underestimated "crowds" by 2 or 3 levels. A few days in that time period they were on point or even over estimated crowds, but for the most part under-estimated levels by 2 or 3 levels. I feel like being off by 2 or 3 levels could in large part be explained by Disney understaffing and reducing capacity. For example, much of that time period they predicted a 4 and it ended up being a 6 or 7. So while they predicted low-moderated crowds, it ended up being high moderate crowds. Up til 1-17 and after 2-10 they were most often within 1 level of what they predicted (1-11, 2-14 and 2-15 being exceptions when they underestimated by 2 levels, 1-1 they overestimated by 2 levels and 1-3 they overestimated by 6 levels)

My "analysis" did not look at individual park crowd levels, just resort wide crowd levels.
 

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