Math-heavy DVC vs. rental comparison

I agree with this completely. However, I interpret it differently. If the economy continues to spiral down the toilet then room rate discounts are going to be plentiful and long-lasting. This will greatly impact the break-even analyses that we have all performed, especially if the discounts come in the first few years of ownership. The game remains the same but it's being played in a completely different venue. We need to start changing our thinking when it comes to our analysis of the value of DVC.

100% true. That’s the upper limit. If they drop prices ours would drop too.

Essentially it’s a question of - can we offer something better for less? If they can stay at AKL for $800. Well our points for an equivalent stay isn’t going to rent for more than $600.

I used a 25%off rack rate as my maximum during calculations. Partly because 20% can frequently be had, and partly because it had to be meaningful enough for the renter to take the risk.
 
OP, You seem set on buying no matter what anyone here says, but, just a suggestion: take a long, hard read of the thread where owners and renters alike are really upset about what's going on right now.
I'm actually not set on buying. I want to, but only if I can get comfortable that it's more cost effective to renting points given our vacation preferences and style.

Can you point me to the threads you're referencing?
 
I'm a math person, and I did a lot of math before buying. But there's something to be said for how much work it is to keep up with the planning of these points.

This is a lot of hassle and work for 3 or 4 trips in 50 years. I'm not even sure why you're considering it. Just book a pirate room at Caribbean Beach for a couple hundred bucks more and relax.
 



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