ROFR Thread July to Sept 2020 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[poofyo101]

Has Disney ever ROFR’d Vero Beach in recent history? I didn’t think so, but now I’m getting nervous too.

not recently but I would think as long as its cheap enough its in danger. I had a VGF rofred a few months ago when they had not had a buy back for several months because it was priced too low.

 

[poofyo101]

Meh if I was buying SSR I would just wait it out. There is not going to be enough direct buyers to prop up the ROFR. You will have quite a few direct purchases running in to the 125 increase and then it will drop off.

Everyone is getting so wrapped up in a few ROFRs taken.

Did you read the ROFR thread 90 contracts were processed last week direct vs the 500-600 that processed the first week of August in 2019.

Disney has how many resorts still closed because they can fill rooms? Plus they just cut hours even further in September.

ROFR kept prices up when there was full parks and lots of direct sales happening. It was also a single pass of ROFR taken.

SSR hadn't really been bought back for a few months prior to covid so maybe looking to catch back up on it.

I have an SSR that was sent 7/23 which doesn't have a chance to make it through if this is continued over next 2 weeks.

 

[sethschroeder]

So there is some information against the instant filling of waitlist buybacks.

It was actually pointed out by someone they could pick up stripped contracts and then sell contracts out of what they are required to hold. This way they avoid MFs this year.

So I think I was wrong that stripped vs not stripped mattered.

If they are holding excess until 2021 they can also only do so much of that.

 

[ForWhomTheMouseTolls]

If rofr continues Saratoga will be back at 100/pt very quickly.

Game theory would actually dictate that you keep sending in contracts at fair market value assuming Disney can’t afford to continue to ROFR everyone.

 

[RachStu]

Whoops, it was not Saratoga it was OKW. It's been a long day... Contract was up for $88 for 230 points and I offered $80, with the seller to pay fees and dues as it's a stripped contract and doesn't have any points until 2021.

 

[poofyo101]

Game theory would actually dictate that you keep sending in contracts at fair market value assuming Disney can’t afford to continue to ROFR everyone.

True but it does seem like alot of the disney customers are making some purchases off emotion rather than an attempt to save a few hundred more dollars. A lot of customers just want to ensure it gets through even if it does cost them a few more dollars per point.

 

[poofyo101]

Whoops, it was not Saratoga it was OKW. It's been a long day... Contract was up for $88 for 230 points and I offered $80, with the seller to pay fees and dues as it's a stripped contract and doesn't have any points until 2021.

I don't think thats a low offer at all. I would say closer to market value than it is to a lowball.

 

[sethschroeder]

True but it does seem like alot of the disney customers are making some purchases off emotion rather than an attempt to save a few hundred more dollars. A lot of customers just want to ensure it gets through even if it does cost them a few more dollars per point.

Thats their issue not mine is my point of view.

I just see no way that Disney is going to be able to ROFR all these contracts over the next 12 months. I have zero doubts that at this time next year we will still be talking about how crowds have not fully returned (maybe longer).

It depends on you as a buyer as well. I have contracts, with points, and likely will buy my next contract direct. So I am in a different position than someone without a single contract and looking to book a trip for next fall during a busier time frame.

 

[RachStu]

I don't think thats a low offer at all. I would say closer to market value than it is to a lowball.

Quite! It was incorrectly advertised as a Dec UY when it was a June UY and the agent tried to tell me June is better then December and worth more as you get your points earlier

 

[RachStu]

[QUOTE="sethschroeder, post: 62214695, member: 463396"

I have zero doubts that at this time next year we will still be talking about how crowds have not fully returned (maybe longer).

[/QUOTE]

Even with the 50th anniversary?

 

[sethschroeder]

Even with the 50th anniversary?

Doesn't start until likely October time frame. Doubt with everything going on they launch a 50th celebration early.

 

[Brianstl]

So there is some information against the instant filling of waitlist buybacks.

Disney has points they can put on contracts from breakage and points they get when people trade them in for cruises, adventures be Disney, etc.

 

[poofyo101]

Quite! It was incorrectly advertised as a Dec UY when it was a June UY and the agent tried to tell me June is better then December and worth more as you get your points earlier

what in the world....

 

[Brianstl]

Even with the 50th anniversary?

The 50th isn’t going to change the economic situation.

Plus, one thing hurting Disney is that a sizable group of people who pay for big family vacations and own DVC are above the age of 60. That group is justifiably more concerned about travel and large crowds than younger groups. They are going to be reluctant to travel until a vaccine is effective.

 

[Sandisw]

They can choose to just pull inventory as breakage though for free based on my understanding but maybe I am wrong about that and there is some limit?

My thought is simply that they are stocking up on some points to be ready for the 100 to 125 increase on direct sales so there is no wait list that occurs.

To clarify its not "free" but there is a cap in breakage income so once they blow past that then its all "free".

They can anticipate breakage and pull more than 60 days but it would have to have some level of data to support it is normally open to be pulled, based on how I interpret the POS.

However, I can’t see them using ROFR either for more points since they still own 65% of RIV to discount and rent for cash.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Thats their issue not mine is my point of view.

I just see no way that Disney is going to be able to ROFR all these contracts over the next 12 months. I have zero doubts that at this time next year we will still be talking about how crowds have not fully returned (maybe longer).

It depends on you as a buyer as well. I have contracts, with points, and likely will buy my next contract direct. So I am in a different position than someone without a single contract and looking to book a trip for next fall during a busier time frame.

When you factor in a specific number of points you might want, coupled with a specific UY, and a specific resort (maybe not SSR, where there are usually considerable contracts available), it never seems to me like there are a thousand resale options, all amazing deals. Considering the time it takes for these things to close, for me sometimes it’s worth it to just pay a little extra and get exactly what I want, without continually stalking all the sites and waiting for months.

This board is fantastic in terms of providing a range of the actual sales prices out there, but I also wonder if it establishes unrealistic expectations for the kind of deals available. I tried a few lowball offers on some recent contracts I bought, not insulting, just lower, and the sellers didn’t even respond. I wound up coming up, but I think the deals were still fair. Maybe I’m just not patient enough, or willing to keep offering less money on contract after contract until someone accepts. Seems like that process could take forever.

 

[sethschroeder]

When you factor in a specific number of points you might want, coupled with a specific UY, and a specific resort (maybe not SSR, where there are usually considerable contracts available), it never seems to me like there are a thousand resale options, all amazing deals. Considering the time it takes for these things to close, for me sometimes it’s worth it to just pay a little extra and get exactly what I want, without continually stalking all the sites and waiting for months.

This board is fantastic in terms of providing a range of the actual sales prices out there, but I also wonder if it establishes unrealistic expectations for the kind of deals available. I tried a few lowball offers on some recent contracts I bought, not insulting, just lower, and the sellers didn’t even respond. I wound up coming up, but I think the deals were still fair. Maybe I’m just not patient enough, or willing to keep offering less money on contract after contract until someone accepts. Seems like that process could take forever.

Been looking at BLT there is probably been 5 or 6 listings in my use year for 150-170 point range all that have had at least one if not more reductions. This just in the last month.

If I wanted it I probably could have gotten one for 128-130 range. I likely will go direct on the next purchase but my thought is that I am in no hurry and the market is not going up in cost.

Upside I could save $20-$30/point the downside maybe I pay an extra $2-$3/point in the next 6 months if I go resale.

I think sometime to remember is to look at the long term pricing charts. They don't increase over night but slowly increase in pricing over time. Take a look at old ROFR trends of how quickly pricing goes up. That is during the best of times with tons of people at Disney, a good economy, ect.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

Ours passed at 32 days. (AKV)
It seems that some resorts take longer than others. That really makes no sense to me when it is a yes or no. It is not like Disney doesn't know what a good deal on a buy-back is.

 

[Rustygirl84]

Ours passed at 32 days. (AKV)
It seems that some resorts take longer than others. That really makes no sense to me when it is a yes or no. It is not like Disney doesn't know what a good deal on a buy-back is.

I wish my AKV would have passed already. I sent mine 6/19 and I am still waiting to hear back.

 

[smisale]

Does anyone know what there buying back. Is there any rhyme or reason for it. Mine was sent 7/23 95.00 for 160 at SSR.