Taking a beating in the stock market

I'll ask you the same question I asked someone who said the same earlier in this thread - how can you possibly time your re-entry, how do you pick the bottom just right and if you miss it when do you re-enter? What if it never reaches your supposed "cheaper level" and you never get back in. Then your left sitting on the sidelines earning 0.7% 0.5% on a stink'en 10 year t-bill, while the market continues up.

Greater than 300 day moving average or below a PE ttm of 20x.
 
Laugh out loud
No one knows where bottom is
Still waiting.

I completely agree and I do not agree with timing the markets. I believe in dollar cost averaging throughout it all, index funds for the vast majority, and in the end you will come out better than if you tried to time the markets. If you are in a position where you need to be withdrawing funds, you probably shouldn't be in 100% equities and should look into bucket strategies or other methods to weather sequence of returns risk. All that being said, if someone is touting a strategy, I'll hear them out. Then when I'm bored I will go model that strategy in Quantopian, backtest it, and see how it would actually perform over the past 20 years or so.
 


Technical analysis is one of the best predictors of past performance you can get. The future is a different animal altogether.
 
Funny I don’t remember a thread counting our blessings during the past three years when we made so much money! I’m still way ahead so not worrying at all. Historically beats almost any other investment so I’m all in and even bought a ton more yesterday
 


I sell at 30x ttm PE.

the trailing pe on the s&p has been above 30 once. In the late fall of 2008 and early spring of 2008. This would have had you in for most of that bloodbath and you would have missed a lot of the run up in 2009.
 
I read online that we’re in for another 2008. The Dow will hit 15,000 this year! I’m moving my 401k to cash as soon as I get into work this morning!
I'm moving back into the S&P fund for my 401k today. Got out at DOW 26,700 on 3/2 and back in about DOW 24,000. That's 10% lower.
 
So you are trying to time the market again.
No, I SUCCESSFULLY timed the market. And you guys said no one could do it... Now to save us all a lot of back and forth I've summarized our future posts below:


Your response: but you didn't get out at the EXACT top or get in at the EXACT bottom so you didn't time the market!

My response: Who cares? I saved 10%

Your response: but you didn't time the market successfully because no one can!

My response: Who cares?

Your response: You shouldn't have done anything at all.

My response: But then I'd have 10% less money.

Your response: No one can time the market so it's stupid to try.

My response: But I did....so I guess I was stupid for saving 10%?
 
No, I SUCCESSFULLY timed the market. And you guys said no one could do it... Now to save us all a lot of back and forth I've summarized our future posts below:


Your response: but you didn't get out at the EXACT top or get in at the EXACT bottom so you didn't time the market!

My response: Who cares? I saved 10%

Your response: but you didn't time the market successfully because no one can!

My response: Who cares?

Your response: You shouldn't have done anything at all.

My response: But then I'd have 10% less money.

Your response: No one can time the market so it's stupid to try.

My response: But I did....so I guess I was stupid for saving 10%?
Well since you were trying to time the market, you should have waited a day. Your successful classification didn’t age well. Oh wait....
 
I’ve sold over the past few days. I know you can’t time the markets but every year I’m more risk averse. I’m just more comfortable sitting on cash especially when it seems no one knows what the hell is going on.

I’ll get back in if and when things seem normal again. I’m sure I’ll miss out on some gains but I’m ok with that.
 
So would have sold Amazon at 200 using those criteria

I realize now that my posts weren't super clear.

I sell when: below the 300 day moving average or the PE ttm breaks 30x. I really should rethink the 30x in hindsight.

I buy when: above the 300 day moving average or the PE ttm breaks below 20x.

This is strictly for the S&P 500 ETF VOO.

I have set my new purchase allocations for my 401K to 60% S&P and 40% stable income. I do expect the market to bottom out around 50%. It can go lower, but I don't know that for certain. I'll gradually move my new purchase allocations closer to 100% S&P the closer we get to a 50% drop.

As for my existing stuff, I put it in 6 month CDs around 90bps, so I'll get half that. And the rest in 3 month t bills around 45bps. I'll reevaluate the market at that time for my non 401k stuff.

I'm currently down about 8% YTD.
 
No, I SUCCESSFULLY timed the market. And you guys said no one could do it... Now to save us all a lot of back and forth I've summarized our future posts below:

I'm in the same boat. I saved about half the downside so far.

Now, the challenge is figuring out when to get back in. That's what people will bring up next. That's what you need come up with a plan for. And the market has often gone back up before the economy has recovered when unemployment is near its peak.
 
I'm in the same boat. I saved about half the downside so far.

Now, the challenge is figuring out when to get back in. That's what people will bring up next. That's what you need come up with a plan for. And the market has often gone back up before the economy has recovered when unemployment is near its peak.

Or you just buy in on a regular basis all the way down and keep the cash from whatever you sold now forever in cash...as you get older, you'll need that cushion anyway...
 

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