Thoughts on Lowball Offer

It is a luxury product. Nobody needs a DVC. When I make offers, they are realistic and where I perceive the value to be. The seller is welcome to counter or not. And if they respond with a firm number I don’t think is reasonable, I say that’s okay. We will find something else.

I’m also fortunate that I am not in a hurry in terms of specific trip planning, and am local.

Aulani is overvalued to me, as are HH and VB. I don’t think Aulani is fair to be priced at VB levels, however, due to the fact you will have access to the points for a significantly higher number of years.
 
My wife and I are waiting on ROFR with a 220 point contract at Poly for $149. Seller was priced lower than all others at $150. I guess we could have offered lower, but we wanted the contract and a feeling that we got a deal. We also wanted to get started as soon as possible to plan our first DVC trip, so time was as important as the price. At the time of the offer, the average resale point price was $173. We are happy even if we could have possibly shaved off a couple more dollars per point.
 
I think that the prices of some resorts are trending downwards, like OKW, for example. The Fidelity site shows several "reduced price" listings for OKW below $100, and I just inked a deal for 100 OKW points at $85 per point. It was listed at $115, and the seller accepted it the offer without even making a counter. Go figure. I have no idea if the deal will pass through ROFR, but it's worth a shot.
When I was shopping resale this past couple of months I noticed that Fidelity consistently had things priced lower. Other sites had their lowest Poly contracts in the 170s but in that time I saw multiple Poly contracts on Fidelity at 155. I ended up snagging one for 150.
 


Fidy charges $225 admin fee, which often buyers pay so really that is part of your price per point factor. Sometimes buyers can try to negotiate a split or buyer to pay etc, but it's really part of the $ equation either way it's handled. VB HH OKW SSR Poly BC BW seem to be dropping ALOT, Aul VGC VGF RIV slow bleed. BLT CC AKL being supported. Boulder no idea :) as I never look at their data

Now is the time to buy at all time lows for 2022
 
The 2042 resorts will continue to drop, especially VB and HH, and not just because of the dues. Their price per point is really quite ridiculous at present levels given the resorts, and especially the competition with superior properties in HHI. At least Vero doesn’t really have any competing product that goes head to head with Disney’s Vero Beach. Either way, with less than 20 years available now on these contracts, they will go into bargain category I think.
 


Wow, that is crazy. I wonder if it is really true that Disney will not ROFR an international seller contract. This will put that to the test.
A user on one of the other DVC forums recently did a deep dive into this in the Orange County database and found several recent examples of international sellers that Disney ROFR’d.
 
You'll see a HUGE spread in asking prices based on the Brokerage sites too. Some seem to have "inflated" asking prices ALL the time, if you check a number of sites, that gives you more options and a better feel for which sites tend to list closer to what savvy buyers are paying. I know of around 10 sites I check ... no doubt there are more. Obviously, the number of points total, and number of points available right away affect what Sellers expect to receive but it's generally more of a Buyer's market right now than a few months ago.
 
When I was shopping resale this past couple of months I noticed that Fidelity consistently had things priced lower. Other sites had their lowest Poly contracts in the 170s but in that time I saw multiple Poly contracts on Fidelity at 155. I ended up snagging one for 150.

I find the Fidelity (http://www.fidelityresales.com/) contract off-putting. Last I looked, it had higher "admin fees" paid by the Buyer upfront, plus said if a Buyer cancels after 10 days, they lose their deposit AND owe Fidelity the Seller's full commission? READ those papers.
 

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