Too Many Hotels, Not Enough Parks

The proximity might lure people but not everyone can afford Disney’s price point. These new hotels Disney is building are not value hotels. These are expensive deluxe accommodations.

True, but couldn't this open the door to the on-site value/moderate resorts to offer incentives/discounts to drive guests onsite (you will now have even more rooms to manipulate with these deluxe's coming online)? I see more guests onsite = higher probability of WDW theme park attendance going back to the OP concerns.
 
True, but couldn't this open the door to the on-site value/moderate resorts to offer incentives/discounts to drive guests onsite (you will now have even more rooms to manipulate with these deluxe's coming online)? I see more guests onsite = higher probability of WDW theme park attendance going back to the OP concerns.
The on-site values and moderates don’t need discounts as they are already full. Those resorts have no problem filling up. They barely offer discounts for those two resort classes now.

Correlation does not equal causation.
 
The on-site values and moderates don’t need discounts as they are already full. Those resorts have no problem filling up. They barely offer discounts for those two resort classes now.

Correlation does not equal causation.

The values/moderates do offer discounts during non-peak seasons. For example, there are Florida and AP discount rooms that we have taken advantage of recently. So there are different buckets of WDW guests that will stay onsite given enough incentive(s). When those incentives are insufficient, then it drives this bucket offsite.
 
The values/moderates do offer discounts during non-peak seasons. For example, there are Florida and AP discount rooms that we have taken advantage of recently. So there are different buckets of WDW guests that will stay onsite given enough incentive(s). When those incentives are insufficient, then it drives this bucket offsite.
Yes they do but very small discounts and often very limited. The values and moderates typically have no issues filling up.

I actually believe another value or moderate resort would be a great addition for WDW but they are instead focused on deluxe.
 


I just listened to this week’s podcast and the rumors regarding all of these different hotels going up. With all of these additional rooms going in, won’t this make the parks even more of a crowded mess than they already are now? Yes, there are more attractions on the horizon which should help a little. However, I’m getting claustrophobic just imagining what Main St USA will be like. I would think that nothing short of a 5th gate would help disperse the massive crowds that are already present and the even bigger crowds to come.


I agree it will make the parks more crowded. Even though a lot of the people going to the parks aren't staying on property, i think it will add to the chaos
 
I agree it will make the parks more crowded. Even though a lot of the people going to the parks aren't staying on property, i think it will add to the chaos

I do think that WDW should add more value resorts to open up the onsite guest experience(s) on a tighter budget. But, it's very hard for me to imagine for families that plan to come to WDW, won't go to the parks regardless of where they stay onsite.

Interestingly, we recently received the Florida resident discounted room packages for this fall. So, I am interpreting this as they are not booked at XX% capacity and need to further get locals onsite. Generally speaking, I envision most locals won't stay onsite unless it accompanies a trip to the theme park(s).
 


In an ideal world, sure. But put yourself in Disney's shoes. You can build a hotel and charge $450/night or one that you can charge $150/night. Either one will be packed from the day it opens. Which one do you build?

The one that yields me the maximum net profit long-term and gives me maximum rate-yielding power.

For example purposes, if it costs me $300 in direct and indirect labor to run the $450/night room, and $100 for the $150/night (but I have many more rooms), then perhaps the volume of the value resort can outweigh the more expensive deluxe resort right?
 
In an ideal world, sure. But put yourself in Disney's shoes. You can build a hotel and charge $450/night or one that you can charge $150/night. Either one will be packed from the day it opens. Which one do you build?

Both are important.

If a resort like the Pop Century averages at $150 with 2880 rooms, that's $432,000 a night. If you assume an average of 2 tickets per room at $100, that's another $576,00. So $1,008,000 a night. You also have to feed at least 5760 people.
If a resort like the Contemporary averages at $600 with 655 rooms, that's $393,000 a night. With tickets, that's another $131,000. So $524,000 a night. You also have to feed at least 1310 people.

The Contemporary requires less workers and the guests are more likely to spend more money per person in food and souvenirs, so the single guest at a deluxe is still more lucrative. Either way, Disney still makes a lot of money.

I think having a mixture of DVC, deluxe, moderate, family suites, campgrounds and value is important. With deluxe accommodations, you can charge more per room, but you have less rooms. That also means less people and less tickets. With value accommodations, you can have more people and sell more stuff, but it also costs more in labor and they're probably not buying the higher ticket items. I think they keep making DVC resorts because they can't keep DVC inventory. They're refurbishing all of the values, which is greatly needed. Maybe when they're done with the renovations we'll get a new All-Star Resort. Who knows, but given their occupancy rate I think they could definitely use it.

I personally think that they need a 5th gate. I know not everyone agrees with that, but maybe after he 50th the need will become more apparent. Alternatively, maybe the economy will take a hit and the people who said it's unnecessary will be proven right.
 
If a resort like the Pop Century averages at $150 with 2880 rooms, that's $432,000 a night. If you assume an average of 2 tickets per room at $100, that's another $576,00. So $1,008,000 a night. You also have to feed at least 5760 people.
If a resort like the Contemporary averages at $600 with 655 rooms, that's $393,000 a night. With tickets, that's another $131,000. So $524,000 a night. You also have to feed at least 1310 people.

The Contemporary requires less workers and the guests are more likely to spend more money per person in food and souvenirs, so the single guest at a deluxe is still more lucrative. Either way, Disney still makes a lot of money.

I personally think that they need a 5th gate. I know not everyone agrees with that, but maybe after he 50th the need will become more apparent. Alternatively, maybe the economy will take a hit and the people who said it's unnecessary will be proven right.
Good point.

And I totally agree on a 5th gate. The parks are ridiculously crowded and there's not really anything else Disney can do about that except for expanding capacity (or closing the gates a lot more which they won't do). Opening new attractions only helps a tiny bit, especially when those new attractions are just taking the space of old attractions. You need another place for people to go.
 
I completely disagree about a 5th gate. It’s not necessary right now. They need to build up their exisiting parks and infrastructure. A 5th park will also canabilize the existing parks (other than MK).

If a recession hits it’s going to hurt the parks and we likely will see crowds decline as well.
 
I completely disagree about a 5th gate. It’s not necessary right now. They need to build up their exisiting parks and infrastructure. A 5th park will also canabilize the existing parks (other than MK).

If a recession hits it’s going to hurt the parks and we likely will see crowds decline as well.
I can't disagree with that either, Ryan. I can definitely see both sides. I just know that the number one complaint today is crowd size Opening Toy Story Land and Star Wars Land will help a bit but not that much. An entire new park could suck up tens of thousands of guests per day.

But you're certainly right that an economic downturn will decrease crowds. And there will be one. There always is. We just don't know when.
 
I can't disagree with that either, Ryan. I can definitely see both sides. I just know that the number one complaint today is crowd size Opening Toy Story Land and Star Wars Land will help a bit but not that much. An entire new park could suck up tens of thousands of guests per day.

But you're certainly right that an economic downturn will decrease crowds. And there will be one. There always is. We just don't know when.
Yep...

I think building up Epcot will help too. DHS still needs more crowd eating attractions once Star Wars opens. Even AK could use more.
 
I think Disney has enough hotels. However, I think it was a good decision on their part however to build another dvc resort (the Riviera resort). I've heard it is so hard these days (if you have a dvc) to get the room you want at your favorite resort because their are so many dvc owners now.

Now the Star Wars Hotel I'm not sure about. I'm hearing rumors it is going to be ranked above the deluxe resorts which I really don't like this idea. I picture this to be more of a childish value resort, but rumor has it, it is going to be a luxurious resort priced at $800 a night. Like honestly they might call it a luxury resort but in the end a couple would probably rather stay at the GF for their honeymoon than a silly Star Wars resort (unless their diehard Star Wars fans lol).


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I think Disney has enough hotels. However, I think it was a good decision on their part however to build another dvc resort (the Riviera resort). I've heard it is so hard these days (if you have a dvc) to get the room you want at your favorite resort because their are so many dvc owners now.

Now the Star Wars Hotel I'm not sure about. I'm hearing rumors it is going to be ranked above the deluxe resorts which I really don't like this idea. I picture this to be more of a childish value resort, but rumor has it, it is going to be a luxurious resort priced at $800 a night. Like honestly they might call it a luxury resort but in the end a couple would probably rather stay at the GF for their honeymoon than a silly Star Wars resort (unless their diehard Star Wars fans lol).


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I think it will cost far more than $800 a night. If you look at the rates for some of the DVC resorts through Disney they can easily dwarf $800 a night.
 
Like honestly they might call it a luxury resort but in the end a couple would probably rather stay at the GF for their honeymoon than a silly Star Wars resort (unless their diehard Star Wars fans lol).
Obviously a couple that aren’t hard core Star Wars fans aren’t going to honeymoon at that hotel but that’s not their target demographic. If the hotel truly delivers what they are proposing I’m sure it will pack people in.
 
I do think that WDW should add more value resorts to open up the onsite guest experience(s) on a tighter budget. But, it's very hard for me to imagine for families that plan to come to WDW, won't go to the parks regardless of where they stay onsite.

I think Disney is using the non-Disney owned Disney Springs hotels as like their "value expansion" but giving people who stay at those hotels the 60 days FP and other perks normally only for people the *fully* stay on site


And I don't think adding more onsite hotels will drastically increase the # of people in the parks - Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge and all the other additions to the parks will do that just fun.

I do think having more onsite hotels and then expanding the perks to some of these other hotels, while not increased # of guests, will put more demand on things like FPs and stuff and with more people have accesses at 60 days it lessens that benefit
 
I think Disney is using the non-Disney owned Disney Springs hotels as like their "value expansion" but giving people who stay at those hotels the 60 days FP and other perks normally only for people the *fully* stay on site

I agree, but get the sense this viewpoint, from Disney's standpoint, is only until another onsite value becomes feasible.


And I don't think adding more onsite hotels will drastically increase the # of people in the parks - Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge and all the other additions to the parks will do that just fun.

I do think having more onsite hotels and then expanding the perks to some of these other hotels, while not increased # of guests, will put more demand on things like FPs and stuff and with more people have accesses at 60 days it lessens that benefit

I definitely see your point and agree that the magnitude (or definition of drastically) is subjective. I said it before that I see various guest "buckets" of which the onsite guests would be a higher percentage of theme park attendees.
 

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