What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[Snowwhyt]

You really think the world is going to shut down for 18 months and we will still have jobs? I work in healthcare and were at about 30% capacity. I won't even be getting my hours.

I’m just reading this whole thread now and I was wondering...
I was happy to see that you were at 30% capacity. Then I realize that was over 5 days ago. I’m guessing you went up a little. What % capacity are you at now(if you know)

On my own prediction as to return to normal travel. I have several.

• those over 65 will end up homebound until after the virus has a vaccine. 80% of deaths are those over 65. (my parents are going to go nuts I pray they stay homebound but I know better)

• kids will end up going back to school and will have loss of life the same as normal flu rates. (remember when pertussis kept grandma and grandpa away from the babies? Now we’re going to see recommendations for kids to stay away from grandma and grandpa until the vaccine comes out)

• DCL will not fold. I would have no problem setting them up with start up money if I had any. Sure some people will see it as a petri dish and not safe enough to go back on. Others won’t be able to safely go on till summer or late spring 2021(going to be making a last-minute reservation the minute my parents 77 get their shot!)

• there’s going to be a financial hardship and many unable to travel and need a refund before PIF date to recover. Small businesses are going to go under, New ones will come back in their place...eventually. A few “kids free offers” might bring some of the numbers back up.

•The prices of Disney cruises will not go up in the next three announcements.

• Disney will not be the first Cruise Line to start cruising again.

• all four ships will not start the same week. Countries are going to be healing at different rates.

 

[Snowwhyt]

Was just on a zoom meeting for my college department. A survey was sent out to college presidents and 2/3 of those surveyed don't think students will be back on campus this fall. Obviously we still need more info and see how this plays out but thought that percentage was staggering.

Can I ask if this was a regional meeting of large and smaller cities? How many colleges were asked? You information leave me with so many questions!

 

[Disneymooner07]

I actually think cruising could be one of the first travel industries to get back on its feet if they’re able to perfect a rapid Covid test that could give results back quickly. Then people would be willing to board a ship knowing everyone on the ship has been medically cleared for Covid. Other travel industries would maybe have it tougher because they’re not enclosed bubbles the way cruises are.

 

[mmackeymouse]

In our area, they are only screening those that are having difficulty breathing, no matter how sick you are. Sick enough to have breathing issues is something like 15% of those infected. So that means 85% are going undetected?

That's not all that unbelievable. I read an article about a couple of doctors/public health specialists from Stanford who believe that the real numbers of those infected are much, much, much higher than those confirmed. We're talking well into the millions. It is their belief that this will wind up having a lesser fatality rate than the standard flu, when all is said and done. BUT, whereas the flu affects 50 million or so people a year...this thing has the potential to infect 250 million+. So the loss of life will be greater, despite the fatality rate being the same or lesser.

Taking those figures (assuming they are correct and know what they are talking about), a 0.1% mortality rate, and approximately 1,200 cases....that would mean around 1.2 million cases. As of right now, confirmed cases is around 85,000. So, there is a HUGE gap between confirmed cases and the actual potential cases. It's almost 15 times higher than the confirmed cases.

Basically, what they are saying is that the number of people who have probably had it and didn't realize they had it, were asymptomatic, have it right now and don't realize it, or people that have/had it, but thought it was something else and they quickly recovered from their sickness is an exponentially high number. When you add to that people who suspect they have it and can't get a test or are told by their doctors they can only be tested with breathing issues....that number goes up even more.

Again, I am of the belief that no one knows. Even the experts, even the people who know, don't know. Sadly though, the potential loss of life is staggering.

 

[Wakey]

50+ percent of people have no idea they have it (numerous studies including the Princess Cruise Ship, the Icelandic random testing, the town in Italy, some Chinese testing). It could be higher but it looks at least 50%. These people still shed the virus, and it is transmits over a long period.

Out of the symptomatic ones, the vast majority have minor cold like symptoms so never get tested nor are sure if they have it or not. The last 2 days I have had a sore throat which I almost never get- Corona or not? No idea. No test.

That’s both good and bad news. Good news because the death rate is really way down, I suspect it will be <1% when all this is assessed when over. Also I suspect we may have a million plus already here in the UK with it, perhaps even more. I also suspect it has been around a lot longer, in the UK at least, than first thought. Many people were complaining of a coughing flu at NY, my fit BIL had it and came down with pneumonia. Now we hear a fella had it in January who had been skiing (previously we had been told late Feb) and people in Iceland who had been to the UK in Jan/ early Feb had picked it up. So it’s already spread much more than realised. And unless you are older with underlying conditions you are unlikely to get much more then mild symptoms- even if you are one of the half to have any symptoms at all.

The bad news is that whilst overall symptoms and death rate is not that bad, it is so contagious and stealthy, that it spreads like wildfire. So even though those needing the ventilator are only a very small proportion, it still overwhelms the health services as it comes so quickly at once. As of yet, no politician is prepared to sit back and have people on the news dropping by the hundreds/ thousands per day in corridors and car parks as per the doctors post above.

Flattening the curve now, simply pushes it along, unless after you have flattened the curve you can better manage outbreaks until the vaccine comes. There seems little chance of a vaccine rolled out to hundreds of millions pre summer 2021. So will cruises, WDW, airlines be in an environment where it can be managed until then? I do not know.

 

[braysmommy]

Can I ask if this was a regional meeting of large and smaller cities? How many colleges were asked? You information leave me with so many questions!

Survey included presidents throughout the country but I'm not sure where responses came from nor how many responded. I think the take home from this is that nobody really knows right now what summer or early fall is going to look like.

 

[MasonDuo]

I actually think cruising could be one of the first travel industries to get back on its feet if they’re able to perfect a rapid Covid test that could give results back quickly. Then people would be willing to board a ship knowing everyone on the ship has been medically cleared for Covid. Other travel industries would maybe have it tougher because they’re not enclosed bubbles the way cruises are.

This would only work for close looped cruises. Can it work? Sure. And perhaps some would bite on that. It is going to take a while to get the ports willing to take on the cruise ships. It will also take time for people to feel confident to go to some of those ports again. I can’t imagine Italy taking on cruise ships for at least a year once the dust settles on their situation and unfortunately I think the UK is next for a similar situation. Mexico seems to be doing alright (that we know) so they may be the earliest to start opening ports and getting the travel industry back. But the underlying question will be what can be picked up while in port and an infection appears on the duration of the cruise. The employees will continue to be susceptible due to the continuous rotation of people leading to the potential of two rotations of people before symptoms arise. It’s a tricky business.

 

[isabellea]

Canceled our August DCL cruise and not planning any trip outside Canada before summer 2021 and we have a back-up plan to stay in the country that summer too if we feel it's necessary. My biggest worry is if travel insurances will cover us even then. If we don't have full medical coverage, we're not traveling.

 

[nearlyfallinstar]

If we have to wait on a vaccine to prevent it, we will be waiting awhile and I don't think the economy can handle being on shut down that long. If they at least find an effective way to treat it (so less people end up needing ventilators/hospital beds), we can all go back to some semblance of normal.

 

[vegs1]

I actually think cruising could be one of the first travel industries to get back on its feet if they’re able to perfect a rapid Covid test that could give results back quickly. Then people would be willing to board a ship knowing everyone on the ship has been medically cleared for Covid. Other travel industries would maybe have it tougher because they’re not enclosed bubbles the way cruises are.

But if they were tested just prior to getting on the ship, the cruise would have to be a short one as you can test negative now but then be positive 14 days later.

I would rather do a bus tour or self drive holiday than a cruise just because of the fact that they are “enclosed bubbles” as you put it.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The 1918 flu epidemic is instructive about the value of distancing and the impacts of releasing restriction too fast and too soon. Graphics here: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

 

[smmco]

I’m just reading this whole thread now and I was wondering...
I was happy to see that you were at 30% capacity. Then I realize that was over 5 days ago. I’m guessing you went up a little. What % capacity are you at now(if you know)

On my own prediction as to return to normal travel. I have several.

• those over 65 will end up homebound until after the virus has a vaccine. 80% of deaths are those over 65. (my parents are going to go nuts I pray they stay homebound but I know better)

• kids will end up going back to school and will have loss of life the same as normal flu rates. (remember when pertussis kept grandma and grandpa away from the babies? Now we’re going to see recommendations for kids to stay away from grandma and grandpa until the vaccine comes out)

• DCL will not fold. I would have no problem setting them up with start up money if I had any. Sure some people will see it as a petri dish and not safe enough to go back on. Others won’t be able to safely go on till summer or late spring 2021(going to be making a last-minute reservation the minute my parents 77 get their shot!)

• there’s going to be a financial hardship and many unable to travel and need a refund before PIF date to recover. Small businesses are going to go under, New ones will come back in their place...eventually. A few “kids free offers” might bring some of the numbers back up.

•The prices of Disney cruises will not go up in the next three announcements.

• Disney will not be the first Cruise Line to start cruising again.

• all four ships will not start the same week. Countries are going to be healing at different rates.

Nope, still low census and only one covid positive patient so far and they basically have a cold. I could care less. I'm happy for the days off, but it's the lower-income jobs like housekeeping, food service, transporters etc that are taking a financial hit.

 

[teruterubouzu]

If we have to wait on a vaccine to prevent it, we will be waiting awhile and I don't think the economy can handle being on shut down that long. If they at least find an effective way to treat it (so less people end up needing ventilators/hospital beds), we can all go back to some semblance of normal.

There are many potential steps in between everyone sheltering in place and people traveling for pleasure. I would expect a lengthy period of some restrictions and then small gatherings being allowed before non-essential things like travel return to normal.

 

[spiders]

Many airlines have already cut May schedules just as much if not more than April. May is shot. Airlines just recently had noticeable reductions. It takes a while to wind down and it takes just as long to wind back up.

Here’s hoping for June.

 

[Sherrilatte]

I actually think cruising could be one of the first travel industries to get back on its feet if they’re able to perfect a rapid Covid test that could give results back quickly. Then people would be willing to board a ship knowing everyone on the ship has been medically cleared for Covid. Other travel industries would maybe have it tougher because they’re not enclosed bubbles the way cruises are.

I agree, especially DCL. But, how do you manage ports of call?

 

[katmigordon]

After a quick google search, Australia had a summer mostly around 30C at the highest (around 80 degrees American). I'm interested in what we'll see when the virus hits Arizona which will register day after day at well over a 100 if it runs a normal summer out here.

This was already brought up in this thread, but I've also taken into consideration that Australia has very warm weather, and yet, the virus is thriving there.

 

[ramwitz]

After a quick google search, Australia had a summer mostly around 30C at the highest (around 80 degrees American). I'm interested in what we'll see when the virus hits Arizona which will register day after day at well over a 100 if it runs a normal summer out here.

It is summer time in the Philippines right now with temperatures ranging between 90 and 100 degrees. The heat has done nothing to curtail the virus which is running rampant through the country. They are currently in a full-on martial law lockdown to try to contain it.

 

[DIS_MIKE]

After a quick google search, Australia had a summer mostly around 30C at the highest (around 80 degrees American). I'm interested in what we'll see when the virus hits Arizona which will register day after day at well over a 100 if it runs a normal summer out here.

That will be very interesting to read about in the coming weeks/months. I will definitely keep my eye on AZ.

Many airlines have already cut May schedules just as much if not more than April. May is shot. Airlines just recently had noticeable reductions. It takes a while to wind down and it takes just as long to wind back up.

Here’s hoping for June.

I can attest to that as Delta emailed me regarding my flight in May for the cruise that will likely be canceled. They switched my departure time which would force me to miss my layover so I had to call and pick a completely new flight. I'm still amazed I got through to someone. Given all that's happened, we've seen 50%+ drops in airfare. I figured it was worth a shot to request a different airport (shorter drive, no overnight hotel or tolls, and much more convenient) since Delta technically changed on me.

The guy said "sure...no problem" until he got to the confirmation page and it asked for $450 op top of what I already paid, so I said thanks but no thanks. I am still scheduled to fly out of Philly now but I'll get into Miami a lot later which is a bummer. Of course....the odds of this trip/cruise happening are about .05% right now. I asked the agent what happens if my cruise is canceled and he said to call back and I'll get some sort of flight voucher for another flight. I have no idea how it works. I hope it doesn't have to equal the amount I paid. Just give me a new flight in coach and I'll be happy at this point.

 

[choirfarm]

That will be very interesting to read about in the coming weeks/months. I will definitely keep my eye on AZ.


I can attest to that as Delta emailed me regarding my flight in May for the cruise that will likely be canceled. They switched my departure time which would force me to miss my layover so I had to call and pick a completely new flight. I'm still amazed I got through to someone. Given all that's happened, we've seen 50%+ drops in airfare. I figured it was worth a shot to request a different airport (shorter drive, no overnight hotel or tolls, and much more convenient) since Delta technically changed on me.

The guy said "sure...no problem" until he got to the confirmation page and it asked for $450 op top of what I already paid, so I said thanks but no thanks. I am still scheduled to fly out of Philly now but I'll get into Miami a lot later which is a bummer. Of course....the odds of this trip/cruise happening are about .05% right now. I asked the agent what happens if my cruise is canceled and he said to call back and I'll get some sort of flight voucher for another flight. I have no idea how it works. I hope it doesn't have to equal the amount I paid. Just give me a new flight in coach and I'll be happy at this point.

May I ask why in the world you did not ask for a refund? The cruise isn't happening and the schedule change gave you an out. I have tickets for a conference that has not been cancelled in April. As soon as they cancel my connecting flight, change the time, etc I will be asking for a refund.

 

[allashore]

Was just on a zoom meeting for my college department. A survey was sent out to college presidents and 2/3 of those surveyed don't think students will be back on campus this fall. Obviously we still need more info and see how this plays out but thought that percentage was staggering.

Yes that is staggering, if so ships would not be sailing
would like to see this survey, obviously it's their opinion, how many college presidents were surveyed? Country would be in pretty sad shape if schools were not open in the Fall. I think this would be the end of some colleges.
We have 3 in college now, and not one school has told us if we will be reimbursed for at least room & board, seems like they just may be holding out.