When Disney parks reopen will they be safe enough to visit?

[TexasChick123]

It isn’t an opinion about warm weather and this virus. It’s a scientific fact. It’s not that it kills it necessarily. It’s that the virus doesn’t live as long on surfaces. When you have densely populated area, it will still get passed around.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

It isn’t an opinion about warm weather and this virus. It’s a scientific fact. It’s not that it kills it necessarily. It’s that the virus doesn’t live as long on surfaces. When you have densely populated area, it will still get passed around.

Right but that is a far cry from "it will all go away when it turns warm!"

 

[Spridell]

Right but that is a far cry from "it will all go away when it turns warm!"

The biggest thing with the warm weather, and the biggest thing Orlando for that matter will have going for it is the humidity. When the air is that dense with the humidity the molecules that come out of one's mouth or nose will ballon up very very fast causing them to drop to the ground much faster and not remain in the air.

 

[TexasChick123]

Right but that is a far cry from "it will all go away when it turns warm!"

The heat and humidity will definitely slow down the spread and “flatten the curve” though which is really what they want. It’s a virus. Once it’s out, it’s out until herd immunity happens or a vaccine comes out.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

It isn’t an opinion about warm weather and this virus. It’s a scientific fact. It’s not that it kills it necessarily. It’s that the virus doesn’t live as long on surfaces. When you have densely populated area, it will still get passed around.

Can you cite a source here?
I was speaking to a life long friend of mine who has his PhD in chemistry from one of the top 10 Chemistry grad programs in the US and works for Big Pharma. Now its not his area of concentration, and he certainly is not omniscient, but he is, lets just say pretty F'in smart. Anyway, his exact quote to me was "We don't know much about this virus and how it will behave in warmer weather. Some in the family do poorly while others are indifferent to season In truth - we don't really know why the flu is seasonal" (the leading hypothesis is that it just doesnt transmit well in the hot moist air)

Not saying you are wrong, and frankly I hope you are correct. Just like to know a reputable scientific source.

I know your spouse is in health care, so if there is more up to date information, Id like to read it.

This was taken from Scientificmag.org

"Different diseases have different patterns. Some peak in early or late winter, others in spring, summer, or fall. Some diseases have different seasonal peaks depending on latitude. And many have no seasonal cycle at all. So no one knows whether SARS-CoV-2 will change its behavior come spring. “I would caution over-interpreting that hypothesis,” Nancy Messonnier, the point person for COVID-19 at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention"

 

[TexasChick123]

Can you cite a source here?
I was speaking to a life long friend of mine who has his PhD in chemistry from one of the top 10 Chemistry grad programs in the US and works for Big Pharma. Now its not his area of concentration, and he certainly is not omniscient, but he is, lets just say pretty F'in smart. Anyway, his exact quote to me was "We don't know much about this virus and how it will behave in warmer weather. Some in the family do poorly while others are indifferent to season In truth - we don't really know why the flu is seasonal" (the leading hypothesis is that it just doesnt transmit well in the hot moist air)

Not saying you are wrong, and frankly I hope you are correct. Just like to know a reputable scientific source.

I know your spouse is in health care, so if there is more up to date information, Id like to read it.

This was taken from Scientificmag.org

"Different diseases have different patterns. Some peak in early or late winter, others in spring, summer, or fall. Some diseases have different seasonal peaks depending on latitude. And many have no seasonal cycle at all. So no one knows whether SARS-CoV-2 will change its behavior come spring. “I would caution over-interpreting that hypothesis,” Nancy Messonnier, the point person for COVID-19 at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention"

Sure. Here you go:

https://www.livescience.com/amp/warmer-weather-slow-coronavirus-spread.html
Excerpt: “This suggests "that the transmission of 2019-nCoV virus might have been less efficient in warmer humid climate so far," the authors wrote. Humidity especially might play a role, given that most of the transmission of COVID-19 has happened in relatively less humid areas, they wrote.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/24/warm-humid-weather-coronavirus/
Excerpt: “Multiple early studies provide evidence of statistical ties between temperature and humidity ranges and the geographic regions where this virus has thrived. While none of these studies has been peer-reviewed, they all point to the same general possibility: The pandemic could ease in parts of North America and Europe during the summer months, although it could then come roaring back in the fall.”

 

[The Prophet]

If you look at the web site by Johns Hopkins, there are plenty of cases in countries near the equator

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
We know less than we think about this virus

 

[TexasChick123]

If you look at the web site by Johns Hopkins, there are plenty of cases in countries near the equator

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
We know less than we think about this virus

Again, we can’t ignore population density. That’s also a factor just like heat and humidity are factors. None of us are publishing any papers on this, so I’ll just hope for the best rather than fearing the worst. I’ll also look at all the evidence rather than only the good or only the bad.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

Sure. Here you go:

https://www.livescience.com/amp/warmer-weather-slow-coronavirus-spread.html
Excerpt: “This suggests "that the transmission of 2019-nCoV virus might have been less efficient in warmer humid climate so far," the authors wrote. Humidity especially might play a role, given that most of the transmission of COVID-19 has happened in relatively less humid areas, they wrote.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/24/warm-humid-weather-coronavirus/
Excerpt: “Multiple early studies provide evidence of statistical ties between temperature and humidity ranges and the geographic regions where this virus has thrived. While none of these studies has been peer-reviewed, they all point to the same general possibility: The pandemic could ease in parts of North America and Europe during the summer months, although it could then come roaring back in the fall.”

Thank you

Although those articles say "could" and "suggests" and "possibility". That is hardly scientific fact.

That being said, I do hope they are right

 

[TexasChick123]

Thank you

Although those articles say "could" and "suggests" and "possibility". That is hardly scientific fact.

That being said, I do hope they are right

Nothing can be stated as fact until it is peer reviewed which takes a while. It’s a slow and painful process kind of like everything else right now. :/

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think this all comes down to two things:

1. Everything is still in a learning process with this virus.

2. Assuming that it has a season, like flu, is wildly premature.

 

[ffcheff]

It is horrible when anyone gets sick but the data about corona virus is incomplete. The leading Epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, in England revised his number of projected deaths in england down from 500,000 to under 20,000 today. The more we test the more we learn. I will keep following the same routine I always follow, wash my hands frequently, avoid touching my face. Hopefully we can all share a few feet of Main Street soon.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

It is horrible when anyone gets sick but the data about corona virus is incomplete. The leading Epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, in England revised his number of projected deaths in england down from 500,000 to under 20,000 today. The more we test the more we learn. I will keep following the same routine I always follow, wash my hands frequently, avoid touching my face. Hopefully we can all share a few feet of Main Street soon.

Definitely interesting. The more data, the better the governments can react and act appropriately.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

We will give it much more time before we return.

Our last visit was a couple months ago. We would normally plan on another trip in early 2021, but even that may be too soon for us. We will probably not go to a vast + highly dense place like WDW until there is a vaccine (preferably) or at least an antiviral treatment. Could be quite some time for that. I really want to see how this all shakes out - are there more waves, does season matter, etc. IMO, this is far from over and it will be a long time before we go to a place like WDW again. One of my kids is potentially high risk, so not a chance we will take.

We have a Sept. UY and will likely bank our 2020/21 points to 2021/22.

 

[jimim]

We rescheduled for June weeks ago before schools even closed cause I knew it was going to happen just from watching the news everyday.
I personally doubt June will happen. No way things are opening around the country for Easter even.
school is done for the year here in pa my opinion and you don’t have to be smart to make that assumption. There has been no peak.
I hope we get to the beach in August. Maybe I’m a Debbie downer but I’m just thinking realalistic.
Even if parks are open for our June trip I really don’t think I want to get in a plain. A trip from Another came back to our area a few weeks ago. Final flight into my area with 12 people or so on it. Most are sick now. I know of 7 that are. 1 died the other day. It’s so sad. So sad. The flight part is what really really scares me.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

We rescheduled for June weeks ago before schools even closed cause I knew it was going to happen just from watching the news everyday.
I personally doubt June will happen. No way things are opening around the country for Easter even.
school is done for the year here in pa my opinion and you don’t have to be smart to make that assumption. There has been no peak.
I hope we get to the beach in August. Maybe I’m a Debbie downer but I’m just thinking realalistic.
Even if parks are open for our June trip I really don’t think I want to get in a plain. A trip from Another came back to our area a few weeks ago. Final flight into my area with 12 people or so on it. Most are sick now. I know of 7 that are. 1 died the other day. It’s so sad. So sad. The flight part is what really really scares me.

What part of PA? If planes are the concern, you could always drive. We drove from Cleveland which was about 15-16 hours. Most of PA should be +/- 2 hours of that.

 

[jimim]

I’m in eastern pa. I thought about it. I drive to topsail nc every summer. 12 hrs. I do it but complain about it every year. Lol

I have considered it. If we can squeeze 3 extra days off I just might.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

What part of PA? If planes are the concern, you could always drive. We drove from Cleveland, OH which is about the same distance as a lot of western PA. Eastern PA would definitely make me hesitate since it can be up to an extra 6 hours away.

how is eastern PA up to 6 hours further away?
According to google maps Cleveland to WDW is 15 hours and 23 minutes
Wilkes-Barre PA (which is pretty northeast PA) to WDW is 15:44

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

how is eastern PA up to 6 hours further away?
According to google maps Cleveland to WDW is 15 hours and 23 minutes
Wilkes-Barre PA (which is pretty northeast PA) to WDW is 15:44

Complete mistake on my part. I didn't really bother mapquesting it. I was just thinking how far I've driven to get to eastern PA. Going directly from there to disney there are highways that go along the coast much quicker. I've always done the 77 forever trek.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

Complete mistake on my part. I didn't really bother mapquesting it. I was just thinking how far I've driven to get to eastern PA. Going directly from there to disney there are highways that go along the coast much quicker. I've always done the 77 forever trek.

lol, thats what I figured you might have done! easy mistake (and PA east to west is a hike)