When Disney parks reopen will they be safe enough to visit?

[Spridell]

What part of PA? If planes are the concern, you could always drive. We drove from Cleveland which was about 15-16 hours. Most of PA should be +/- 2 hours of that.

I think you bring up a very interesting point about driving.

I would say Disney will see an increase in people driving to Orlando this summer and for a couple of months going forward. Was similar after 9/11 with people afraid of getting back on airplanes.

 

[Cyberc1978]

For those that didn’t know. Disney have extended the closure until further notice.

 

[paults]

I have rooms for OCT at BWV. If this thing last till Aug I will mostly cancel till late next year

 

[Kiley]

Definitely not if they reopen before June. After that, it would depend on CDC info on community spread. I am in high risk group and have several family members in that group as well. Plus, I would feel terrible if my desire for a vacation resulted in anyone else getting sick. There will be people in the parks spreading the virus for many months to come.

Me as well. I'm a physician in Canada. Our province has 26 cases (knock on wood) and I am not working because the possibility of transmission is still high, with so much unknown about this virus. As someone with an autoimmune condition, I will not be going to Disney until there is a vaccine, and we usually go 3-4 times/year. This is hard.

 

[ffcheff]

Study released today about the effect of Sunlight, Heat and Humidity on the Virus. Florida will be a very safe place this summer.

 

[TexasChick123]

Study released today about the effect of Sunlight, Heat and Humidity on the Virus. Florida will be a very safe place this summer.

Good to hear as someone who lives in TX. If there’s one thing we have here, it’s sunlight, heat, and humidity! I had to break out my shorts today. It’s too darn hot to wear jeans!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

There is not a strong study despite what was said in the WH briefing. And if heat and humidity are so effective, why have New Orleans and Singapore had major outbreaks?

Science is developing. Rumors are rampant. Peer review is scant.

 

[The Prophet]

I think all three parks (Disney, SeaWorld, and Universal) will open the same time

It depends on what remediation measures they employ and how comfortable I am with them
As many others have said, the knowledge about this virus is low and there is a lot of misinformation out there

Once we have a better understanding of it, and how it is transmitted, only then can they plan to re-open

The first step for me will be for Gov DeSantis lifting the 14 day self-quarantine for folks from the NY Metro area and Louisiana.
Being that NY is still on lock down until at least May 15th, I don't anticipate using my points anytime soon

 

[TexasChick123]

There is not a strong study despite what was said in the WH briefing. And if heat and humidity are so effective, why have New Orleans and Singapore had major outbreaks?

Science is developing. Rumors are rampant. Peer review is scant.

Because heat and humidity don’t mean the virus cannot be spread. They mean it can’t be spread as easily. People are still indoors in Singapore and New Orleans. I’ve been to Mardi Gras many times. Half the fun is the parties which take place inside. There are huge balls at the end of every parade in the conference center.

Singapore is a densely populated area. Heat and humidity don’t kill the virus in a currently infected person. That person is still sick. When s/he gets on public transit and sneezes, those droplets are in an air conditioned environment. When someone is at work and coughs or sneezes, that air conditioned room isn’t hot, humid, or in sunlight. If you’re at the beach, the likelihood you’ll get the virus from another person is pretty small. When you go inside into a restaurant, crowded hotel, etc., your chances of contracting it from an infected person go up. And Singapore has ~5.4 million people that live there. They’ve had 12 deaths and ~12,000 confirmed cases. It isn’t exactly running rampant there.

 

[ffcheff]

There is not a strong study despite what was said in the WH briefing. And if heat and humidity are so effective, why have New Orleans and Singapore had major outbreaks?

Science is developing. Rumors are rampant. Peer review is scant.

Because the virus started spreading in winter, during Flu Season.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

And Singapore has ~5.4 million people that live there. They’ve had 12 deaths and ~12,000 confirmed cases. It isn’t exactly running rampant there.

They're also generally ultra-compliant with government regulation.

Studies done on guinea pigs decades ago showed there was a relationship between absolute humidity and the rate of influenza virus transmission. More absolute humidity meant it was harder for the guinea pigs to get infected. The actual temperature didn't matter, except that higher temperatures allow for higher absolute humidity.

What is not clearly understood is why this is the case or how it could apply to coronaviruses. Studies on coronaviruses are all over the place without much focus on humidity (though one study rolled through the other day suggesting that half-lives are reduced on flat surfaces in high-humidity environments, which is a fairly limited finding).

They're different viruses to be sure, but structurally they're very similar: they're both genetic material, wrapped in proteins held together by a lipid layer, and surrounded by a bunch of protein spikes.

So what's going on with humidity and the influenza virus? At least three possibilities:

1. The humidity combined with other particles in the air weakens the lipid layer and makes it fragile, causing the virus to explode on contact with tissues.

2. Prolonged exposure to humidity interferes with the protein spikes' ability to attach to receptors.

3. High humidity changes the epithelial cells in the upper respiratory tract, making it that much harder for influenza viruses to attach.

If it's just #3, the utility for mitigating coronavirus seems limited (but more than zero). If it's the others or a combination of all 3 factors, there's room for some optimism here, but people getting really close together are still likely to pass the virus around.

It's very important not to place too much hope on this effect. Hawaii is mostly keeping case load down by limiting people coming in from off the islands. Humidity in Honolulu right now is 71%. Orlando is 80-90% right now, and Florida's case load continues to rise.

 

[mom2missmous]

And for us there is the added stress of wondering if we will even have the choice to be able to go as Florida at present has told us we in Connecticut are not allowed to come into the state. Our trip is in July so hopefully this is no longer the case when it gets closer, but just another thing to have to deal with.

 

[Sandisw]

They're also generally ultra-compliant with government regulation.

Studies done on guinea pigs decades ago showed there was a relationship between absolute humidity and the rate of influenza virus transmission. More absolute humidity meant it was harder for the guinea pigs to get infected. The actual temperature didn't matter, except that higher temperatures allow for higher absolute humidity.

What is not clearly understood is why this is the case or how it could apply to coronaviruses. Studies on coronaviruses are all over the place without much focus on humidity (though one study rolled through the other day suggesting that half-lives are reduced on flat surfaces in high-humidity environments, which is a fairly limited finding).

They're different viruses to be sure, but structurally they're very similar: they're both genetic material, wrapped in proteins held together by a lipid layer, and surrounded by a bunch of protein spikes.

So what's going on with humidity and the influenza virus? At least three possibilities:

1. The humidity combined with other particles in the air weakens the lipid layer and makes it fragile, causing the virus to explode on contact with tissues.

2. Prolonged exposure to humidity interferes with the protein spikes' ability to attach to receptors.

3. High humidity changes the epithelial cells in the upper respiratory tract, making it that much harder for influenza viruses to attach.

If it's just #3, the utility for mitigating coronavirus seems limited (but more than zero). If it's the others or a combination of all 3 factors, there's room for some optimism here, but people getting really close together are still likely to pass the virus around.

It's very important not to place too much hope on this effect. Hawaii is mostly keeping case load down by limiting people coming in from off the islands. Humidity in Honolulu right now is 71%. Orlando is 80-90% right now, and Florida's case load continues to rise.

But, Florida has a much lower caseload than many espected, especially given the age of the population,

So, I do think there is a chance that weather May have played some role in keeping numbers where they are,

There was nothing that said it stops but, but has a positive effect on the half life,

To me, it’s good news in that with all we are doing, those warmer temperatures may help to keep those curves flatter than they might have been

 

[_auroraborealis_]

But, Florida has a much lower caseload than many espected, especially given the age of the population,

So, I do think there is a chance that weather May have played some role in keeping numbers where they are,

There was nothing that said it stops but, but has a positive effect on the half life,

To me, it’s good news in that with all we are doing, those warmer temperatures may help to keep those curves flatter than they might have been

Right. The real world is hard to set controls in for science.

But I have definitely still seen people clinging to a "summer will eliminate it," and there are a variety of reasons that is a hazardous leap of faith.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

I don't think people think this virus will ever be "eliminated"; I think we are all smart enough to know that isn't the case. I don't understand why some on these boards can't look on this bit of information as a little ray of sunshine. Why not allow us the opportunity for a little hope that maybe, just maybe the scientists could be onto something positive that we would all benefit from.

 

[Wjbow1]

I will be 50 in May and I won't have a problem visiting. I think a lot of people will stay away so the crowds won't be the usual Disney crowds. It has already been proven that the majority of people who get infected have no symptoms. If you wait until there is a vaccine you could be waiting years. There are risks to doing a lot of things, and I don't want to live my life afraid to do the things I enjoy that make life worth living.

 

[WIll C]

Our next trip is in November. I'm hoping they get things open in the summer and plan out how to deal with things so when we arrive it will be a lot smoother. I expect any summer opening will be pretty rocky as they get used to how to deal with crowds.

 

[MickeyMouse3!]

I think this will be similar to the flu. It will always be around. There will be some vaccine but like the flu vaccine, it will be hit or miss on the right strand of vaccine. People will be more diligent with hand washing and sanitizing. The theme parks in Florida have all entered into a gentleman's agreement that they will communicate with each other and notify each about plans to reopen etc. When WDW opens, I believe they will be fully opened with everything being completely sanitized during the shutdown and before opening. They will not be able to keep any type of social distancing. Their ticket disclaimer already says enter and participate at your own risk (basically anyway).

 

[kmurphy11795]

I am very nervous myself with the reopening. Will it draw larger crowds? Do you think less people will come because of the expense? The anxiety of not being open is getting the best of me. I don't even know how they can start.

 

[lorenni]

Given what doctors are seeing now with younger, largely asymptamatic or mild symptom folks later having strokes - no thanks. People in their 30-40s. There is more to this virus than meets the eye and it turns out it’s not at all like the common flu. Until there is a vaccine I just don’t see any vacation being worth the risk.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/