When do ya'll think parks be open?

[doubletoast]

I thought Memorial day for a while, but now I am worried it might be like Labor day.

 

[DeletedAccount]

No way they stay closed that long. Once hospitals can handle the load the parks will open and those that want to assume the risk can go.

I think you're exactly right. I'll be the first to bring some data into this:

They will reopen in June because peak new-cases per day will occur within the next two weeks, followed shortly by peak deaths per day (assuming all states do what they need to do). This means case numbers will decline significantly throughout May, causing there to be plenty of available beds throughout the country by June. (not to mention whatever, if any, new testing precautions we institute) Here's just one of many good resources:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The CDC director has also said that it is likely that this virus has a seasonality, where there are far fewer cases in the summer, but not confirmed. A second wave in the winter is a certain.

Once we reach the point where the healthcare system is back to reasonable levels of capacity, I can't imagine the parks don't open in order for them to make some money, perhaps with some new precautions in place related to sanitization. Not to mention we could all use the morale boost. There is nothing irresponsible about that - part of the reason this virus is so deadly is because our healthcare system was not ready for this type of pandemic, through no fault of our incredible healthcare professionals. Once our system can handle the patients and has a firm grasp on what this virus does, which seems likely that it will by the end of May, it will be ok for us to venture out again with much less risk. Especially if it is a "seasonal" virus.

Also, yes Disney is a business that wants to make money, but they have talked to many smart people, and they have smart people working for them. If they're letting people book June 1, they have a reason.

Just my two cents. I have a wedding followed by WDW honeymoon in early July, so I care a lot! I'll be the first to say I have no idea what's gonna happen

 

[Maistre Gracey]

I think you're exactly right. I'll be the first to bring some data into this:

They will reopen in June because peak new-cases per day will occur within the next two weeks, followed shortly by peak deaths per day (assuming all states do what they need to do). This means case numbers will decline significantly throughout May, causing there to be plenty of available beds throughout the country by June. (not to mention whatever, if any, new testing precautions we institute) Here's just one of many good resources:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The CDC director has also said that it is likely that this virus has a seasonality, where there are far fewer cases in the summer, but not confirmed. A second wave in the winter is a certain.

Once we reach the point where the healthcare system is back to reasonable levels of capacity, I can't imagine the parks don't open in order for them to make some money, perhaps with some new precautions in place related to sanitization. Not to mention we could all use the morale boost. There is nothing irresponsible about that - part of the reason this virus is so deadly is because our healthcare system was not ready for this type of pandemic, through no fault of our incredible healthcare professionals. Once our system can handle the patients and has a firm grasp on what this virus does, which seems likely that it will by the end of May, it will be ok for us to venture out again with much less risk. Especially if it is a "seasonal" virus.

Also, yes Disney is a business that wants to make money, but they have talked to many smart people, and they have smart people working for them. If they're letting people book June 1, they have a reason.

Just my two cents. I have a wedding followed by WDW honeymoon in early July, so I care a lot! I'll be the first to say I have no idea what's gonna happen

Nothing irresponsible about that.
Are you thinking about yourself, or all the good folks (many elderly) who live in Florida?
As a Floridian I love the tourists, but please let this play out. Don’t push it, and I hope Disney doesn’t as well.

 

[DVC Fanatic]

Nooooo. I refuse to accept this. My vacation is 23-31. So they will open before it. They must, I finally got a beach club waitlist, it’ll never happen again.

We canceled our Memorial Day week trip at PVB. Our annual passes, as of right now, are not good during the summer, so we banked what we could and scheduled a trip at Vero beach the third week of June. We were only able to get a studio, so had to make the trip before our youngest is officially 3 and we size out of the 4 person rooms.

 

[yankeesfan123]

I think you're exactly right. I'll be the first to bring some data into this:

They will reopen in June because peak new-cases per day will occur within the next two weeks, followed shortly by peak deaths per day (assuming all states do what they need to do). This means case numbers will decline significantly throughout May, causing there to be plenty of available beds throughout the country by June. (not to mention whatever, if any, new testing precautions we institute) Here's just one of many good resources:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The CDC director has also said that it is likely that this virus has a seasonality, where there are far fewer cases in the summer, but not confirmed. A second wave in the winter is a certain.

Once we reach the point where the healthcare system is back to reasonable levels of capacity, I can't imagine the parks don't open in order for them to make some money, perhaps with some new precautions in place related to sanitization. Not to mention we could all use the morale boost. There is nothing irresponsible about that - part of the reason this virus is so deadly is because our healthcare system was not ready for this type of pandemic, through no fault of our incredible healthcare professionals. Once our system can handle the patients and has a firm grasp on what this virus does, which seems likely that it will by the end of May, it will be ok for us to venture out again with much less risk. Especially if it is a "seasonal" virus.

Also, yes Disney is a business that wants to make money, but they have talked to many smart people, and they have smart people working for them. If they're letting people book June 1, they have a reason.

Just my two cents. I have a wedding followed by WDW honeymoon in early July, so I care a lot! I'll be the first to say I have no idea what's gonna happen

according to your source, the peak in Florida is May 3rd, and even longer in some other states. Considering the downslope itself will take months, my two cents is that it will not reopen all operations this summer. You might be a slow rollout of openings across the property, but June 1st just does not seem realistic.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

The card carrying cynic part of me is wondering about the economics on a state level. Florida is loosing a ton of revenue from the hotel tax not being collected. While the government has to keep people safe, the also have to pay the police, etc. But these decisions are well above my pay grade. However, I do think its why June 1 may very well be a hotel opening, but not parks. So many things to balance.

 

[DCLPrincess]

That's where the social part of it comes in. There's a secret weekly meeting somewhere for all the CEOs to come to an agreement. We all open together so none of us looks like a jackA. COVID-19 could be raging still but between that type of agreement, and hitting the right time where we're stir crazy...that might be enough for them to call it and recoup some revenue.

And I acknowledge what I'm saying and I will say that my comment is based on us having a - when will the park be open discussion and not a what's best for the world health wise discussion. The latter is a polarizing subject that I don't really want to get into...

I agree. They all announced the closures at the same time.

 

[Yinn]

The card carrying cynic part of me is wondering about the economics on a state level. Florida is loosing a ton of revenue from the hotel tax not being collected. While the government has to keep people safe, the also have to pay the police, etc. But these decisions are well above my pay grade. However, I do think its why June 1 may very well be a hotel opening, but not parks. So many things to balance.

Micro and macro are both affected here IMO.

All of those are valid points, but what about all the other businesses? There's a large amount of businesses that simply aren't bringing in revenue and may not be large enough to continue paying their employees. Those employees are not going to be able to spend, which has a domino effect on other businesses and their revenues.

Those businesses may also find it tough to pay their landlords, which affects commercial real estate. Those commercial real estate firms may not be able to pay back their loans and mortgages. Which reduces profits for those who hold the loans, which triggers expense reductions for banks, which affects more individuals - who now have less to spend at businesses but also their own rents and mortgages which will affect more loans and mortgages...

All of those will affect sales tax, income tax, social security, medicare, unemployment tax; all of it will take in less revenue. At the same time, the amount of unemployment claims, state and federal aid claims will go up. It's a bunch of dominos..

 

[yankeesfan123]

The card carrying cynic part of me is wondering about the economics on a state level. Florida is loosing a ton of revenue from the hotel tax not being collected. While the government has to keep people safe, the also have to pay the police, etc. But these decisions are well above my pay grade. However, I do think its why June 1 may very well be a hotel opening, but not parks. So many things to balance.

i could even see hotels open with limited capacity, and you know what? Open the parks with limited capacity. No attractions open though, but maybe some restaurants, limiting capacity at 50% for dining. People can stroll, take pictures, meet non-face characters, see princesses from a distance.

i also think construction will open ASAP, and I think you’ll see active construction in the parks for month before you see visitors allowed in the parks. Getting workers back to work is first (construction), having entertainment, like theme parks, is bottom of the list.

I don’t know what’s going to happen, but it’s impossible for me to image 50,000+ people at the magic kingdom less than 60 days from now.

 

[disney_kings]

I think the odds of parks reopening in June are slim to none. I have a trip booked the first week of August and we are proceeding under the assumption it won't happen.

Food for thought:
China hit their peak in Feb. They reacted much faster and dropped the hammer much harder (effectively locking down something like 75 million people, doing in depth trace contact measures, employing much stricter quarantine procedures, etc). Even though it appears their released numbers are highly suspect, it does appear things are starting to open back up there but Disney Shanghai is still closed.

From the FAQ on the model being cited here:
Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?
Our model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some of the social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.

 

[Darklord77]

Food for thought:
China hit their peak in Feb. They reacted much faster and dropped the hammer much harder (effectively locking down something like 75 million people, doing in depth trace contact measures, employing much stricter quarantine procedures, etc). Even though it appears their released numbers are highly suspect, it does appear things are starting to open back up there but Disney Shanghai is still closed.

ANY information out of China about how they handled this or their stats are rubbish. Plain and simple. They claim to have had no new cases, but the next day they close movie theaters? Yeah right.

 

[DeletedAccount]

Nothing irresponsible about that.
Are you thinking about yourself, or all the good folks (many elderly) who live in Florida?
As a Floridian I love the tourists, but please let this play out. Don’t push it, and I hope Disney doesn’t as well.

I'm thinking from Disney's perspective. I think you're exactly right that there is a need for everyone to continue being careful, particularly for our vulnerable populations.

However, once our healthcare system is back to a reasonable load, and once this virus declines over the summer, I don't think Disney is being irresponsible by opening the parks and letting people enter/exit of their own volition. This assumes the new case rates are indeed minuscule by June. If this were not the case, my whole point would be moot!

 

[lovin'fl]

If this is seasonal like the flu then the peak is now. Doesn't matter that China started sooner. I wouldn't think. The warm weather will stifle this like the flu if it's seasonal. The flu typically starts to die down the end of April. I think a June opening is not completely out of the realm of possibility. If it's like the flu. They don't know but other coronaviruses have been seasonal and then a couple weren't like MERS.

 

[stephk1981]

I am going to guess after September 1.

 

[Heather07438]

I can't even venture a guess to how and when the parks will open. It is the worst scenario where transmission is concerned.

You have 10s of 1000s of guests in very close proximity.
The travel. People from hotspots spreading it into the state or people bringing cases out of the state and re-introducing it to their cooled area.
Add to that 97% who could still be vulnerable to the virus come June? Even 75%? Pfft

It stinks hearing it out of my own mouth. I want to go back to WDW, normality to resume and livelihoods restored. But: What strategies can be used to get there? And how long will it take?
Every answer I can think of results in WDW being one of the last to resume any semblance of operation.

From a financial perspective, re-opening early could cause further damage to the parks and Florida. Is it cheaper to stay on the down low? Sounds incredible when we think about the economy hit already but it could get more expensive if Florida got seriously out of control. What scared leaders into action? The thought of how horrendous society could get if the virus wasn't managed.

We're not going to be through the woods in June. Some measures will remain, like huge gatherings or anything that flames major spread. The things that can save this outcome is if miraculously some good treatments come along &/or this virus doesn't like sunshine in the USA. It's possible, that's where I'm putting my hopes. Just can't count on it.

I expect things to get going again. Step by step certain activity will become allowed and monitored before going further. Maybe we get to a point where almost everything is open and just pull back in certain localities as needed.

 

[bookwormde]

the more I study it a phased opening appears to be the most likely path. Phased in the sense of how many total guests are allowed in the parks at any one time rather than partial park opening

If they start with on site guests only at 60% occupancy then about 60,000 guests. Assuming full park hours, with an average of 2/3 actually in the parks at any one time park attend would be 40,000. That is about 20-25% of what has existed before Covid 19

At that level with significant adaptations effective social distancing could have a significant impact.

To me this is the best calculated path to seeing if it is possible It also has the advantage of maximizing revenue from WDW.

 

[gharter]

Guessing a partial opening mid-May with further opening June 1. I think it could be close to fall before we see things back to "normal".

 

[Yinn]

Read a book

Does The Art of a Deal count?

 

[Sakiki]

the more I study it a phased opening appears to be the most likely path. Phased in the sense of how many total guests are allowed in the parks at any one time rather than partial park opening

If they start with on site guests only at 60% occupancy then about 60,000 guests. Assuming full park hours, with an average of 2/3 actually in the parks at any one time park attend would be 40,000. That is about 20-25% of what has existed before Covid 19

At that level with significant adaptations effective social distancing could have a significant impact.

To me this is the best calculated path to seeing if it is possible It also has the advantage of maximizing revenue from WDW.

A phased reopening is the only practical way to go, surely? The parks and resorts are effectively mothballed and starting up from scratch - they’ve got to get all the staff back from wherever they’re currently hunkered down (both front-of-house and backstage), the food outlets supplied and running, the rides out of the ‘shutdown maintenance’ mode that they must be in currently.

Also, the folks on these boards are hard-core fans and tend to have a certain ‘no matter what’ approach. I suspect the majority of ‘regular’ folk will be very reluctant to spend money on a Disney vacation (even assuming will have the money by then to spend on a Disney vacation in the first place) if they think there’s still a chance of getting sick, especially when a lock-down order and grounding of flights will be almost instantaneous if there’s another outbreak. I suspect people will not want to risk being trapped away from home at least for a while. Crowds will be very low at first, like after 9/11 but much worse, probably for months.

Then you have to add in the travel factor - not everyone lives within driving distance of WDW and the family from New York or Chicago or Phoenix who might have happily hopped on a plane even three months ago may be very much less willing to do so for a while. Even if they can find a plane once the hit to the airlines has shaken out (we have a ‘hold’ on flights to MCO with Virgin Atlantic for December 2021 through Virgin Holidays, but at the moment I don’t even know if VA will exist in six months time). And the same applies to international visitors but even more so. First you need the no-flights orders on people from outside the US to be lifted, then the willingness to possibly be caught overseas (see above) and the willingness and ability to pay for a Disney vacation.

I would say a possible very limited reopening 9/1 to test the load factors and if it looks good, a slow ramping up of capacity and attraction availability to hit normal at around 12/1. And if there’s another outbreak all bets are off - the absolute worst-case scenario for Disney would be for a whole load of guests staying at one of the resorts all coming down sick together. The lawyers would be flocking like vultures... (yes, I work for a small local insurance brokerage and have a very specific view on personal injury lawyers ).

A working effective vaccine would be a game-changer, of course, but even with optimism that‘s unlikely until the end of this year at the very earliest.

Just my two penn’orth. YMMV etc.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

Labor day is looking more and more likely.

I want to be wrong!