Will Disneyland Reopen?

[Disneylandfan85]

As a DIS shareholder I would think the company has a fiduciary duty to me and therefore must exhaust all legal avenues in reopening the park, including suing the government. IMO mandating closure this long goes beyond standard executive powers granted for emergencies and constitutes a regulatory taking under the 5th amendment and thus Disney can sue for inverse condemnation.

I think that case is so obviously in favor of the plantiff that CA would back down and the park would reopen.

Theoretically, it could happen, but I have a feeling that it may never actually happen. Unless it starts making the news, I think we're just going to hear the same old shtick for a long time to come, that they will prod Newsom and he won't budge. I really don't think they will go that far.

And just for the record, I'm a shareholder, too.

 

[DLgal]

The question is will that actually happen? So far, I haven't heard anything other than just "Open up, open up!"



The problem is that it's not just Disneyland, but all parks in the state. They are apparently lumped together as one as part of a package deal. So Disneyland's reopening is dependent on, say, Gilroy Gardens reopening, for example. If Disney were to sue, they should all sue. And so far, I haven't heard anything about them actually doing that. And anyway, I haven't really heard hide or hair of the possibility of a lawsuit. Right now, it's just all talk - among ourselves, I might add - about what they could do.

It's a SPECULATION thread. People here are doing just that.

 

[Disneylandfan85]

It's a SPECULATION thread. People here are doing just that.

Exactly, yet we're talking as if we can do something about it, when we really can't, which is kind of discouraging actually.

 

[mentos]

The question is will that actually happen? So far, I haven't heard anything other than just "Open up, open up!"



The problem is that it's not just Disneyland, but all parks in the state. They are apparently lumped together as one as part of a package deal. So Disneyland's reopening is dependent on, say, Gilroy Gardens reopening, for example. If Disney were to sue, they should all sue. And so far, I haven't heard anything about them actually doing that. And anyway, I haven't really heard hide or hair of the possibility of a lawsuit. Right now, it's just all talk - among ourselves, I might add - about what they could do.

Well, we are in the speculation thread, lol. I also throw out wild legal theories like inverse condemnation and common carrier status that serve as backbone arguments in reopening.

But I think most of it is optics, we've seen the progression from voluntarily closing --> backroom requests for guidance --> public requests for guidance via their trade group --> public requests with actual DISNEYLAND on the letter head (so to speak) --> public demands from friendly political figures (mayors, supervisors, legislators, etc..) -- full court press in the court of public opinion for guidelines

We still have a few steps to go before Disneyland, et al. show up at the court house with a list of demands. They haven't even quietly threatened to file a lawsuit yet. Quiet veiled threat = "Disneyland is compelled to review all legal options available to us to reopen." vs. outright demand "Disneyland will pursue all available legal avenues."

ETA: they did set the stage when they quietly blamed the governor in July for not being able to open. It was subtle, but it was clear as day if you were looking for it.

 

[mentos]

Exactly, yet we're talking as if we can do something about it, when we really can't, which is kind of discouraging actually.

I dunno, I have a lot of fun in here if you want more solid, no-speculation/straight talk, the reopening thread is above the community board by one level.

 

[Disneylandfan85]

Well, we are in the speculation thread, lol. I also throw out wild legal theories like inverse condemnation and common carrier status that serve as backbone arguments in reopening.

But I think most of it is optics, we've seen the progression from voluntarily closing --> backroom requests for guidance --> public requests for guidance via their trade group --> public requests with actual DISNEYLAND on the letter head (so to speak) --> public demands from friendly political figures (mayors, supervisors, legislators, etc..) -- full court press in the court of public opinion for guidelines

We still have a few steps to go before Disneyland, et al. show up at the court house with a list of demands. They haven't even quietly threatened to file a lawsuit yet. Quiet veiled threat = "Disneyland is compelled to review all legal options available to us to reopen." vs. outright demand "Disneyland will pursue all available legal avenues."

But considering where we are right now in the year, I have a feeling it will be a long time (i.e., after the first of the year, 2021, at the earliest) before it ever gets that far, if it does.

 

[Disneylandfan85]

ETA: they did set the stage when they quietly blamed the governor in July for not being able to open. It was subtle, but it was clear as day if you were looking for it.

But as you pointed out, it was back in July, so it's been about three months now. Surely, something would have happened in the intervening time period, but it hasn't.

 

[mentos]

But considering where we are right now in the year, I have a feeling it will be a long time (i.e., after the first of the year, 2021, at the earliest) before it ever gets that far, if it does.

If cases remain steady and don't skyrocket, and no guidelines are released, I'd expect a legal challenge (or threat of one) by Thanksgiving.

If cases rise -- all bets are off, it becomes a strategic optics decision if Disney wants to push. Legally, the governor has a case that it is still an emergency. It's tenuous.

If cases skyrocket -- see you all in 2022

 

[mentos]

But as you pointed out, it was back in July, so it's been about three months now. Surely, something would have happened in the intervening time period, but it hasn't.

See previous timeline, they set the expectation in July that it's all in the governor's hands (it is), and subsequent actions have targeted that power (the requests by trade group, the PR targeting, etc...) from a normally conservative company in terms of public lobbying/engagement, a LOT has come out in the last month.

ETA: in the last month (that we could see). I'm pretty sure there was a lot more backdoor dealing (or attempts) July-August.

 

[Disneylandfan85]

I dunno, I have a lot of fun in here if you want more solid, no-speculation/straight talk, the reopening thread is above the community board by one level.

Where is this thread? I tried to find it.

If cases remain steady and don't skyrocket, and no guidelines are released, I'd expect a legal challenge (or threat of one) by Thanksgiving.

If cases rise -- all bets are off, it becomes a strategic optics decision if Disney wants to push. Legally, the governor has a case that it is still an emergency. It's tenuous.

If cases skyrocket -- see you all in 2022

That's the problem, though, cases are starting to climb again. Not skyrocket yet, but just wait. We're getting into the flu season, which is sure to complicate matters.

See previous timeline, they set the expectation in July that it's all in the governor's hands (it is), and subsequent actions have targeted that power (the requests by trade group, the PR targeting, etc...) from a normally conservative company in terms of public lobbying/engagement, a LOT has come out in the last month.

ETA: in the last month (that we could see). I'm pretty sure there was a lot more backdoor dealing (or attempts) July-August.

If so much has come out since July, how come it hasn't really had made much of an impact on things?

 

[mentos]

Where is this thread? I tried to find it.

That's the problem, though, cases are starting to climb again. Not skyrocket yet, but just wait. We're getting into the flu season, which is sure to complicate matters.

Go up one level (you're in the basement, hah).

Why would flu cases complicate things? DL has operated in a flu environment before (H1N1, specifically). Only difference is in therapeutics (there are none for COVID). This is purely a COVID closure, the governor would lack precedent in closing the park for normal/non-pandemic flu strain.

Plus the evidence from the Southern Hemisphere indicates a lackluster flu season anyway. If anything, flu only complicates the screening of potential guests since both would have fevers, this screening could potentially kick out fever+/covid- guests. I don't see implications on the question of "open or not."

 

[mentos]

If so much has come out since July, how come it hasn't really had made much of an impact on things?

Because the governor is a.....









....wonderful guy!

 

[mentos]

Theoretically, it could happen, but I have a feeling that it may never actually happen. Unless it starts making the news, I think we're just going to hear the same old shtick for a long time to come, that they will prod Newsom and he won't budge. I really don't think they will go that far.

And just for the record, I'm a shareholder, too.

Hey so if Chapek and the board don't sue, we can sue the board together for breach of duty. Hahah!

For the record, I don't think anyone is suing...it will likely resolve itself a) amicably or b) by way of an outside factor (i.e. robust vaccine and therapy) which renders this all moot...until the next pandemic.

 

[EmJ]

Go up one level (you're in the basement, hah).

Why would flu cases complicate things? DL has operated in a flu environment before (H1N1, specifically). Only difference is in therapeutics (there are none for COVID). This is purely a COVID closure, the governor would lack precedent in closing the park for normal/non-pandemic flu strain.

Plus the evidence from the Southern Hemisphere indicates a lackluster flu season anyway. If anything, flu only complicates the screening of potential guests since both would have fevers, this screening could potentially kick out fever+/covid- guests. I don't see implications on the question of "open or not."

I think the complicating flu factor is if flu and COVID intersect in a way that threatens hospitals in becoming overwhelmed again. That said, I'm going to take my Because I Think So And Maybe I Read Something On The Internet degree and predict a quiet flu season. As you said, flu has been basically a no-show in the southern hemisphere, interest in the flu shot is higher this year and many people have already gotten it or intend to, and all the precautions we are taking to avoid covid (masks, hands, distance, etc.) will protect us from flu too.

 

[Disneylandfan85]

Hey so if Chapek and the board don't sue, we can sue the board together for breach of duty. Hahah!

If only...

For the record, I don't think anyone is suing...it will likely resolve itself a) amicably or b) by way of an outside factor (i.e. robust vaccine and therapy) which renders this all moot...until the next pandemic.

Considering where we are right now, I doubt things will be amicable. I don't think Newsom will be amicable even to lawmakers or to congressmen. As for the vaccine, that's not happening for a long time yet, and anyway, it seems rather rushed. And yet I have a feeling things will continue to be shut down until the vaccine does come, which won't be for a long time, as I said.

 

[mentos]

Considering where we are right now, I doubt things will be amicable. I don't think Newsom will be amicable even to lawmakers or to congressmen. As for the vaccine, that's not happening for a long time yet, and anyway, it seems rather rushed. And yet I have a feeling things will continue to be shut down until the vaccine does come, which won't be for a long time, as I said.

I think amicable isn't quite the word I am looking for, it's basically "they will come to an agreement after much sparring/shaming/implicit and explicit threat of lawsuit and then smile for the cameras and say they came to a mutually beneficial understanding that balances the needs of the economy and public health"

Like having two kids fight it out over one Nintendo Switch and getting them to sit nicely after bribing them with ice cream.

Is there a word for all that? lol

 

[Disneylandfan85]

Go up one level (you're in the basement, hah).

I'm confused.

Why would flu cases complicate things? DL has operated in a flu environment before (H1N1, specifically). Only difference is in therapeutics (there are none for COVID). This is purely a COVID closure, the governor would lack precedent in closing the park for normal/non-pandemic flu strain.

Well, there is no precedent for closing the park at all, outside of Disney's control anyway

Plus the evidence from the Southern Hemisphere indicates a lackluster flu season anyway. If anything, flu only complicates the screening of potential guests since both would have fevers, this screening could potentially kick out fever+/covid- guests. I don't see implications on the question of "open or not."

Cases are on the rise in the East (i.e., New York) and Midwest apparently, though. And in England, they have had such a skyrocket in cases that they've shut down again. I'm not sure if it's the entire country or just certain parts, like London or something, but they've had cases that led to more shutdowns there.

 

[Disneylandfan85]

I think amicable isn't quite the word I am looking for, it's basically "they will come to an agreement after much sparring/shaming/implicit and explicit threat of lawsuit and then smile for the cameras and say they came to a mutually beneficial understanding that balances the needs of the economy and public health"

The problem there is that we may be waiting for a long time for that time to come, if it ever does come at all. It may not, at least not during the remainder of the year, I don't think.

 

[pharmama]

The problem is that it's not just Disneyland, but all parks in the state. They are apparently lumped together as one as part of a package deal. So Disneyland's reopening is dependent on, say, Gilroy Gardens reopening, for example. If Disney were to sue, they should all sue. And so far, I haven't heard anything about them actually doing that. And anyway, I haven't really heard hide or hair of the possibility of a lawsuit. Right now, it's just all talk - among ourselves, I might add - about what they could do.

I struggle with this idea that its somehow the "little parks" that are holding things back. Are there any true independent "little parks" still in California (I'm genuinely asking- I can't think of any)? Gilroy Gardens and Great America are both Cedar Fair parks and often close seasonally anyway...Cedar Fair has already thrown in the towel (in August) on both of those with announcements that they will be closed until 2021. Cedar Fair is certainly invested in guidelines anyway since Knotts is also their property and they are doing a good job 'making it work' there for now. Other parks I'm aware of are part of other big companies as well (Six Flags, Universal, Sea World). Even the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk is already partly open so while I'm sure they want to get their rides open they are already making things work to some degree.

 

[mentos]

I struggle with this idea that its somehow the "little parks" that are holding things back. Are there any true independent "little parks" still in California (I'm genuinely asking- I can't think of any)? Gilroy Gardens and Great America are both Cedar Fair parks and often close seasonally anyway...Cedar Fair has already thrown in the towel (in August) on both of those with announcements that they will be closed until 2021. Cedar Fair is certainly invested in guidelines anyway since Knotts is also their property and they are doing a good job 'making it work' there for now. Other parks I'm aware of are part of other big companies as well (Six Flags, Universal, Sea World). Even the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk is already partly open so while I'm sure they want to get their rides open they are already making things work to some degree.

Fairytale Town -- Oakland, CA
Fairytale Town -- Sacramento, CA
Traintown -- Sonoma, CA
Roaring Camp Railroad -- Felton, CA (has reopening date/plans)
Tilden Regional Park -- Oakland/Berkeley, CA (has carousel and steam trains, separate areas though, not really a little park)
Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk (are rides open?)
Santa Monica Pier
There's this one county fair like place in Riverside (is it still there?)

Then you've got those traveling ones, haven't been to one in a while.