Will CCV prices slump like PV?

[sky2823]

In 2 years? It looks like PVs resale is down around $20 per point with 46 years left...

CCV has held, but wondering where it’s projecting...

this ignores current covid related prices slumps etc....

 

[ChipNdale8887]

In 2 years? It looks like PVs resale is down around $20 per point with 46 years left...

CCV has held, but wondering where it’s projecting...

this ignores current covid related prices slumps etc....

I expect CCV to follow similar prices to BLT. PVB is kinda different with its high point costs for studios and the fact it is studios or bungalos only.

 

[Matty B13]

I think the issue of CCV having so few studios to reserve is what is going to hurt the resale value. A lot of direct buyers who thought they could get in at 100 points a year will start having a hard time finding studios and will need to book 1 bedrooms or try their luck at the 7 month mark. Also, first time direct owners after a year or 2 start to realize how expensive a Disney vacation is every year and either can't afford it, or don't want to spend the money, then they want to sell their contracts. Most of the resale contracts I have bought, were from owners that only had the contracts for a year or 2.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

I think the issue of CCV having so few studios to reserve is what is going to hurt the resale value. A lot of direct buyers who thought they could get in at 100 points a year will start having a hard time finding studios and will need to book 1 bedrooms or try their luck at the 7 month mark. Also, first time direct owners after a year or 2 start to realize how expensive a Disney vacation is every year and either can't afford it, or don't want to spend the money, then they want to sell their contracts. Most of the resale contracts I have bought, were from owners that only had the contracts for a year or 2.

True assuming the owners bought to only stay in studios.

 

[Matty B13]

True assuming the owners bought to only stay in studios.

Yes assuming that, but I think if we took a poll of all DVC owners most stay in studios. This is the whole reason DVC build Poly the way they did....... and taking the cheapest route possible as well, to maximize profits.

 

[bookwormde]

resale prices for both BLT and CCV have softened significantly over the past few weeks, but not to the 20% level

 

[poofyo101]

with No ROFR on CCV for a few years it could go down.
Thats one of the biggest reasons IMO poly is continuing to go down because there has been on ROFR on it.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

with No ROFR on CCV for a few years it could go down.
Thats one of the biggest reasons IMO poly is continuing to go down because there has been on ROFR on it.

This is true. We could see some nice prices for CCV. People have only owned it since 2017 or shorter so they could be dumping it once they realize how expensive DVC can be if financed and the business shut down could make it worse.

 

[DaveNan]

I think older resorts holding value is driven by 11 and 7 month availability. The more difficult the booking is, the more the home resort advantage is needed, the more are willing (need) to pay for resale points. As of now, booking in CCV is still very difficult, which demands the premium. Because of the closures availability will remain difficult (likely get even tougher) once everything reopens, so I think CCV will remain higher than PV.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

VGF - up from its initial cost of 150 per point in about 5-6 years or so.
Poly - down
CCV - not there yet - but not looking good
DRR - with the resale restriction I can take a guess

that is a change in trajectory

 

[striker1064]

This is tough. CCV will definitely slump as more contracts hit the market and Disney doesn't exercise ROFR for a while, but I don't think it will lose quite as much as PVB.

PVB has more total points, about 4 million, compared to about 3.3 million to CCV. CCV also has a wider range of accommodations (studio, one bedroom, two bedroom, grand villa, cabin). They both have points-hog accommodations, but despite all the hand-wringing about CCV's cabins they seem to stay booked more than the PVB bungalows. It's likely because they are cheaper to book.

PVB is only studios and a few bungalows, though. I think a big part of the problem is people buying PVB only to realize their needs change and they want something larger than a studio, so that drives them to sell.

Wilderness Lodge in general remains a very popular place to stay. BRV always booked quickly at Christmastime, and CCV is the same. PVB doesn't have a defining point of the year where it's so unique and beautiful, everyone wants to stay there. CCV does.

CCV studios are also just a hair cheaper than PVB studios in the cheaper seasons, to quite a bit cheaper in the busier seasons, so even smaller 75 point contracts can conceivably go farther at CCV if you're able to book a studio.

I'm just one person, could be totally off base.

 

[Minniesgal]

PV's problem is the limited room choice which impacts the price. CCV will have a similar but lessor issue due to the 4 in a room thing.

 

[Deploraboo]

I just don’t know how anyone can buy a contract here. There’s a deadly pandemic with no cure and vaccine is at least a year, possibly two years out. There’s absolutely no guarantee that there will not be rolling closures, rolling shelter at home orders and/or capacity limitations.

it’s a suckers bet at this point.

 

[CastAStone]

with No ROFR on CCV for a few years it could go down.
Thats one of the biggest reasons IMO poly is continuing to go down because there has been on ROFR on it.

What is the reason Disney doesn't do ROFR on new resorts? How long does it last?

 

[CastAStone]

I just don’t know how anyone can buy a contract here. There’s a deadly pandemic with no cure and vaccine is at least a year, possibly two years out. There’s absolutely no guarantee that there will not be rolling closures, rolling shelter at home orders and/or capacity limitations.

it’s a suckers bet at this point.

That's what they said about buying auto company stock in 2008. If you bought Ford, GM and Chrysler, you'd have lost everything on 2 of the 3 and still more than doubled your total money in 18 months with just the increase in Ford stock after it stabilized. That's how buying assets in a pullback works - you take risks and usually the winners win bigger than the losers lose.

 

[Deploraboo]

Yeah, minus the deadly pandemic and timeshare part.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

What is the reason Disney doesn't do ROFR on new resorts? How long does it last?

I believe its mostly because the resorts aren't sold out yet so they do not need to buy them back. CCV is 96% sold out according to the DVC website. Poly likely isn't completely sold out either, I'm guessing its 98-99% sold out(out of 4mil points thats 40,000-80,000 points) so no reason to start buying them back until they have sold their inventory. Some say 4-5 years since they started selling a DVC resort is when they start buying back points. I've also heard Aulani is never bought back either since it hasn't official sold out.

 

[Figment's Girl]

That's what they said about buying auto company stock in 2008. If you bought Ford, GM and Chrysler, you'd have lost everything on 2 of the 3 and still more than doubled your total money in 18 months with just the increase in Ford stock after it stabilized. That's how buying assets in a pullback works - you take risks and usually the winners win bigger than the losers lose.

This is why the hubby and I are considering buying more points at CCV. We have 100 which allows us to do a one week stay or a few weekends in studios. We have had no trouble booking studios. We'd love to add a small contract in case we decide to stay longer or move up to a one-bedroom here or there.

We have both been extremely fortunate where we can both work from home are considered essential but though we found a couple of contracts that would work for us, we decided to wait around six months just in case.

 

[bookwormde]

I think one of the reasons that Poly is weakening is that while many buy DVC based on the studio value some of those discover that a 1 or 2br has a strong attraction for a variety of reasons and those are not practical options at Poly

 

[LAX]

I just don’t know how anyone can buy a contract here. There’s a deadly pandemic with no cure and vaccine is at least a year, possibly two years out. There’s absolutely no guarantee that there will not be rolling closures, rolling shelter at home orders and/or capacity limitations.

it’s a suckers bet at this point.

I am not advocating anyone to purchase now, but all DVC resorts have at least 20+ years of "life" remaining. I can't imagine life in general will still be impacted significantly by COVID-19 a year from now, which leaves plenty of years for people to enjoy their DVC. As for other pandemics in the future, who knows? But we can't live the rest of our lives in fear because of the "next" pandemic, IMHO.

LAX