I expect CCV to follow similar prices to BLT. PVB is kinda different with its high point costs for studios and the fact it is studios or bungalos only.In 2 years? It looks like PVs resale is down around $20 per point with 46 years left...
CCV has held, but wondering where it’s projecting...
this ignores current covid related prices slumps etc....
True assuming the owners bought to only stay in studios.I think the issue of CCV having so few studios to reserve is what is going to hurt the resale value. A lot of direct buyers who thought they could get in at 100 points a year will start having a hard time finding studios and will need to book 1 bedrooms or try their luck at the 7 month mark. Also, first time direct owners after a year or 2 start to realize how expensive a Disney vacation is every year and either can't afford it, or don't want to spend the money, then they want to sell their contracts. Most of the resale contracts I have bought, were from owners that only had the contracts for a year or 2.
Yes assuming that, but I think if we took a poll of all DVC owners most stay in studios. This is the whole reason DVC build Poly the way they did....... and taking the cheapest route possible as well, to maximize profits.True assuming the owners bought to only stay in studios.
This is true. We could see some nice prices for CCV. People have only owned it since 2017 or shorter so they could be dumping it once they realize how expensive DVC can be if financed and the business shut down could make it worse.with No ROFR on CCV for a few years it could go down.
Thats one of the biggest reasons IMO poly is continuing to go down because there has been on ROFR on it.
What is the reason Disney doesn't do ROFR on new resorts? How long does it last?with No ROFR on CCV for a few years it could go down.
Thats one of the biggest reasons IMO poly is continuing to go down because there has been on ROFR on it.
That's what they said about buying auto company stock in 2008. If you bought Ford, GM and Chrysler, you'd have lost everything on 2 of the 3 and still more than doubled your total money in 18 months with just the increase in Ford stock after it stabilized. That's how buying assets in a pullback works - you take risks and usually the winners win bigger than the losers lose.I just don’t know how anyone can buy a contract here. There’s a deadly pandemic with no cure and vaccine is at least a year, possibly two years out. There’s absolutely no guarantee that there will not be rolling closures, rolling shelter at home orders and/or capacity limitations.
it’s a suckers bet at this point.
I believe its mostly because the resorts aren't sold out yet so they do not need to buy them back. CCV is 96% sold out according to the DVC website. Poly likely isn't completely sold out either, I'm guessing its 98-99% sold out(out of 4mil points thats 40,000-80,000 points) so no reason to start buying them back until they have sold their inventory. Some say 4-5 years since they started selling a DVC resort is when they start buying back points. I've also heard Aulani is never bought back either since it hasn't official sold out.What is the reason Disney doesn't do ROFR on new resorts? How long does it last?
That's what they said about buying auto company stock in 2008. If you bought Ford, GM and Chrysler, you'd have lost everything on 2 of the 3 and still more than doubled your total money in 18 months with just the increase in Ford stock after it stabilized. That's how buying assets in a pullback works - you take risks and usually the winners win bigger than the losers lose.
I just don’t know how anyone can buy a contract here. There’s a deadly pandemic with no cure and vaccine is at least a year, possibly two years out. There’s absolutely no guarantee that there will not be rolling closures, rolling shelter at home orders and/or capacity limitations.
it’s a suckers bet at this point.