Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[EmJ]

Our September trip is canceled The rest of our payment for our DVC rental is due July 25. I'm sitting here debating if we should cancel now and be out the initial payment but not lose the rest, or go ahead and pay it and hope that they're still closed come September so that we can reschedule for free. If we gamble and they're open we lose the whole rental amount . Anyone want to speculate on when they'll be opening to help me decide?

Ugh, what a horrible position to be in! I'm so sorry September is like a million covid years away, so it is so hard to say. But based on Newsom repeatedly talking about the "dimmer switch" of shutting things down and literally not saying one word about opening anything up, PLUS LAUSD announcing all online school for the fall, my prediction is that they will not be open in September. But I don't want to be wrong and cause you to lose your rental fees. That really, really stinks.

 

[mentos]

Our September trip is canceled The rest of our payment for our DVC rental is due July 25. I'm sitting here debating if we should cancel now and be out the initial payment but not lose the rest, or go ahead and pay it and hope that they're still closed come September so that we can reschedule for free. If we gamble and they're open we lose the whole rental amount . Anyone want to speculate on when they'll be opening to help me decide?

Oh this is rough. It's going to depend on the wording you have with the DVC owner, and on their end, the provenance of the points used to secure the reservation. Depending on the age of those points and the structure of the contract, they may not be able to accommodate you.

Remember how everyone was arguing about that one prediction for parks to reopening in 2021? Maybe they were right (well partially right WDW is open already)

I was vigorously arguing against that one single analyst in Europe making a prediction about Disneyland because he made it with zero evidence - a broken clock is right twice a day!

 

[mouschievous]

LAUSD announcing all online school for the fall, my prediction is that they will not be open in September. But I don't want to be wrong and cause you to lose your rental fees.

Oh wow, I didn't realize LAUSD announced that! Oof. (and don't worry, I wouldn't hold anyone other than myself responsible for lost fees. Well, other than my H, who was the one who convinced me not to pay for the insurance in the first place )

It's going to depend on the wording you have with the DVC owner, and on their end, the provenance of the points used to secure the reservation. Depending on the age of those points and the structure of the contract, they may not be able to accommodate you.

We went through a DVC rental store (not David's), and they've already told us that we can either cancel now and get no money back but not owe the rest, or pay for it and if they're closed they will issue us a credit. My gut says things won't be open, but I don't know if I am confident enough to gamble that kind of money.

 

[ycsteves]

Can someone explain to me how this hurts Disneyland’s ability to reopen? Like I get the rules alone about shuttering indoor businesses, but the rides don’t really fall into that category, and pretty much all rides can be distanced/cleaned/ have plexiglass (so I’ve seen through WDW videos) and other things in ways that restaurants and other business can’t do as frequently or at all. it’s easier for DLR to require masks and things like that. Aside from social pressure, I don’t see how they can’t (maybe won’t or shouldn’t) open “soon”. I feel like I’m missing something obvious/ important though. Can someone help me out here?

 

[EmJ]

Oh wow, I didn't realize LAUSD announced that! Oof. (and don't worry, I wouldn't hold anyone other than myself responsible for lost fees. Well, other than my H, who was the one who convinced me not to pay for the insurance in the first place )


We went through a DVC rental store (not David's), and they've already told us that we can either cancel now and get no money back but not owe the rest, or pay for it and if they're closed they will issue us a credit. My gut says things won't be open, but I don't know if I am confident enough to gamble that kind of money.

When in September? Early or late?

 

[mouschievous]

When in September? Early or late?

Early - Sept 8-13.

 

[mrsw94]

Can someone explain to me how this hurts Disneyland’s ability to reopen? Like I get the rules alone about shuttering indoor businesses, but the rides don’t really fall into that category, and pretty much all rides can be distanced/cleaned/ have plexiglass and other things in ways that restaurants and other business can’t do as frequently or at all, so I’ve seen through WDW videos) , also, it’s easier for them to require masks and things like that. Aside from SoCal pressure, I don’t see how they can’t (maybe won’t or shouldn’t) open “soon”. I feel like I’m missing something obvious/ important though. Can someone help me out here?

The list includes closing family entertainment centers, zoos and museums. All of those would appear to be similar (in some part or another) to parts of Disneyland. If they can't open, then I would imagine Disneyland can't open either.

 

[mentos]

Oh wow, I didn't realize LAUSD announced that! Oof. (and don't worry, I wouldn't hold anyone other than myself responsible for lost fees. Well, other than my H, who was the one who convinced me not to pay for the insurance in the first place )


We went through a DVC rental store (not David's), and they've already told us that we can either cancel now and get no money back but not owe the rest, or pay for it and if they're closed they will issue us a credit. My gut says things won't be open, but I don't know if I am confident enough to gamble that kind of money.

Ugh. Always get the insurance!

DVC Rental Store -- the store, the company itself, not the owner -- will issue you a credit? Are there any restrictions to that credit? If it behaves like an airline credit, I would consider paying the balance in full and gird your loins between now and September. Be flexible with travel (luckily, it's very cheap).

That way, if it's open in September... you can go. If not, take the credit and rebook +11 months ahead.

Possible worst case scenario is that DVC resorts are open but parks are closed. BUT, since VGC is embedded inside GCH, I can't imagine a scenario where DVC is open but park and hotel are closed. This is different from how WDW DVC properties operate. Argument against this is that Disney presented reopening plans that had the hotels lagging by a week, so that bodes well.

But my vote is squarely in paying the balance, so long as you are 150% sure it's a relatively unrestricted credit if it is cancelled, and that you will in fact travel during a pandemic to make a September booking/reopning.

Can someone explain to me how this hurts Disneyland’s ability to reopen? Like I get the rules alone about shuttering indoor businesses, but the rides don’t really fall into that category, and pretty much all rides can be distanced/cleaned/ have plexiglass and other things in ways that restaurants and other business can’t do as frequently or at all, so I’ve seen through WDW videos) , also, it’s easier for them to require masks and things like that. Aside from SoCal pressure, I don’t see how they can’t (maybe won’t or shouldn’t) open “soon”. I feel like I’m missing something obvious/ important though. Can someone help me out here?

No, but it's the trend and trajectory of restrictions that does not bode well for DLR. It seems contradictory if, in the same breath, the Gov announces more restrictions on indoor spaces while simultaneously allowing large gatherings in indoor spaces in theme parks. I get that theme parks have always been considered separate due to their city-state-like operations, but I just don't see that happening in this environment.

 

[ycsteves]

The list includes closing family entertainment centers, zoos and museums. All of those would appear to be similar (in some part or another) to parts of Disneyland. If they can't open, then I would imagine Disneyland can't open either.

I see family entertainment centers as like a boomers/ I-Fly/K-1 go carting, etc. like places that are primarily, if not all, inside, but I see what you mean.

 

[ycsteves]

Ugh. Always get the insurance!

DVC Rental Store -- the store, the company itself, not the owner -- will issue you a credit? Are there any restrictions to that credit? If it behaves like an airline credit, I would consider paying the balance in full and gird your loins between now and September. Be flexible with travel (luckily, it's very cheap).

That way, if it's open in September... you can go. If not, take the credit and rebook +11 months ahead.

Possible worst case scenario is that DVC resorts are open but parks are closed. BUT, since VGC is embedded inside GCH, I can't imagine a scenario where DVC is open but park and hotel are closed. This is different from how WDW DVC properties operate. Argument against this is that Disney presented reopening plans that had the hotels lagging by a week, so that bodes well.

But my vote is squarely in paying the balance, so long as you are 150% sure it's a relatively unrestricted credit if it is cancelled, and that you will in fact travel during a pandemic to make a September booking/reopning.




No, but it's the trend and trajectory of restrictions that does not bode well for DLR. It seems contradictory if, in the same breath, the Gov announces more restrictions on indoor spaces while simultaneously allowing large gatherings in indoor spaces in theme parks. I get that theme parks have always been considered separate due to their city-state-like operations, but I just don't see that happening in this environment.

I see. I figured as much, it wouldn’t be right to let some family places to open while more affordable family centers cannot.

 

[EmJ]

Can someone explain to me how this hurts Disneyland’s ability to reopen? Like I get the rules alone about shuttering indoor businesses, but the rides don’t really fall into that category, and pretty much all rides can be distanced/cleaned/ have plexiglass (so I’ve seen through WDW videos) and other things in ways that restaurants and other business can’t do as frequently or at all. it’s easier for DLR to require masks and things like that. Aside from social pressure, I don’t see how they can’t (maybe won’t or shouldn’t) open “soon”. I feel like I’m missing something obvious/ important though. Can someone help me out here?

Look at it on a macro scale. California is not performing well with respect to the coronavirus, no matter how anyone wants to slice and dice the data. Newsom, looking to prevent California from being the next Florida, is busily closing things down to try and stop that from happening. First it was bars. Then indoor dining. Now a whole bunch of stuff. And the closures are expanding out from just “bad” counties to the whole state. Further, any time a change is made to try and stem transmission, it takes 3-4 weeks to even fully see the impact of it. So, even if the changes made today are effective, we won’t know that until mid-August. Regardless of how we all feel about Disney’s relative safety or safety measures, Sacramento *is not* going to give it the clearance to reopen, drawing thousands of guests from all over the country, at the same time as it is prohibiting its own residents from eating a burrito inside Chipotle. Look for DL to reopen when cases first stabilize, then decrease, then smaller establishments like restaurants and salons reopen, and cases STILL stay stabilized or decrease, and then larger establishments like museums and zoos reopen and cases still stay stabilized or decrease. That will take months to work out, even if it starts today.

 

[EmJ]

Early - Sept 8-13.

I’m thinking no, but I really sympathize with your position. Next time your DH will know!

 

[ycsteves]

Look at it on a macro scale. California is not performing well with respect to the coronavirus, no matter how anyone wants to slice and dice the data. Newsom, looking to prevent California from being the next Florida, is busily closing things down to try and stop that from happening. First it was bars. Then indoor dining. Now a whole bunch of stuff. And the closures are expanding out from just “bad” counties to the whole state. Further, any time a change is made to try and stem transmission, it takes 3-4 weeks to even fully see the impact of it. So, even if the changes made today are effective, we won’t know that until mid-August. Regardless of how we all feel about Disney’s relative safety or safety measures, Sacramento *is not* going to give it the clearance to reopen, drawing thousands of guests from all over the country, at the same time as it is prohibiting its own residents from eating a burrito inside a Chipotle. Look for DL to reopen when cases first stabilize, then decrease, then smaller establishments like restaurants reopen and salons, and cases STILL stay stabilized or decreased, and then larger establishments like museums and zoos reopen and cases still showing tag stabilized or decreased. That will take months to work out, even if it starts today.

This makes a ton of sense.

 

[EmJ]

This makes a ton of sense.

Stinks, though. Sometimes I still find myself looking around and wondering how this happened... one day everything was fine, and then it just wasn’t. Sigh.

 

[mouschievous]

That way, if it's open in September... you can go. If not, take the credit and rebook +11 months ahead....

But my vote is squarely in paying the balance, so long as you are 150% sure it's a relatively unrestricted credit if it is cancelled, and that you will in fact travel during a pandemic to make a September booking/reopning.

I have an email in to them to clarify some things regarding the credit. And yes, it's the company, not a DVC owner, that is issuing the credit. There's always the chance the company could go under.

We will definitely not be traveling in September. We were supposed to go with my parents, who are not comfortable and want to postpone (can't say I blame them!).

My gut is saying DL won't be open, I just can't decide if I should trust it!

I’m thinking no, but I really sympathize with your position. Next time your DH will know!

RIGHT?! Ugh.

 

[Chemist]

Can someone explain to me how this hurts Disneyland’s ability to reopen? Like I get the rules alone about shuttering indoor businesses, but the rides don’t really fall into that category, and pretty much all rides can be distanced/cleaned/ have plexiglass (so I’ve seen through WDW videos) and other things in ways that restaurants and other business can’t do as frequently or at all. it’s easier for DLR to require masks and things like that. Aside from social pressure, I don’t see how they can’t (maybe won’t or shouldn’t) open “soon”. I feel like I’m missing something obvious/ important though. Can someone help me out here?

I've said this both here and on the cruise line boards.

I can't believe that places like Disney are open when schools aren't.

In terms of prioritization, schools HAVE to be higher than almost everything!

 

[ycsteves]

Stinks, though. Sometimes I still find myself looking and wondering how this happened... one day everything was fine, and then it just wasn’t. Sigh.

I know. DL reopening was going to be the highlight of this whole summer and now fall because I will be home for my upcoming semester as well. But I would be lying if I said it didn’t make sense- it’s for the best.

 

[taaren]

So now I need to make sure that my masks for the parks are extra cute for the photos. This is just more pressure!
On the bright side, the WDW mod said that she had never seen CMs take the rules so seriously as she had in the past two days. So that is good -- hope they can keep it up.

I've been trying to scheme out how my party is going to do photos, since we purposefully got themed masks (we have a collection of SW characters, and some that are different Disney characters) to coordinate rather than wear the same ones. We've found that when we have to work with masks on for several hours, disposable masks are much more comfortable. So we'll be wearing disposables to the parks whenever they open. I guess we just bring the themed ones in our purses and put them on over the disposables for pictures?

 

[ycsteves]

I've said this both here and on the cruise line boards.

I can't believe that places like Disney are open when schools aren't.

In terms of prioritization, schools HAVE to be higher than almost everything!

I hear you, but technically neither are open. I’m referring to DL in CA, not WDW in FL. I can’t speak for what decisions will be made come August, but if certain schools decide its best if they don’t open due to not be able to have enough PPE, procedures in place for outbreaks/ students and teachers testing positive, or the ability to social distance in their classrooms, then that’s not on any other form of business in this state. Schools technically shouldn’t open if they can’t make it safe, but if DL can make it safe for visitors then I don’t see why they wouldn’t be able to open- in that hypothetical scenario of course.

 

[mentos]

I've said this both here and on the cruise line boards.

I can't believe that places like Disney are open when schools aren't.

In terms of prioritization, schools HAVE to be higher than almost everything!

I think it's different in that Disney owns and controls almost all aspects of a visitor's stay, while there are a lot more competing interests with school districts. How do students get to school if city bus services (for which many districts rely on) are curtailed/absent? Classrooms are fixed spaces, Disney has the ability to curtail/close its highest risk spaces (restaurants/bars). Schools cannot reduce the absolute number of students coming into a classroom they are legally entitled to (flex scheduling/staggering still has the same top-line number), whereas Disney can absolutely curtail total attendance to meet safety parameters.

The types of staff and the specialization is also problematic. If a teacher is sick, it's difficult even in non-pandemic times to replace them with a substitute. A Disney CM is more easily substituted by a lead or other CM in the event that they are unable to come into work.

So while I agree that schools are higher priority, Disney has a lower bar of resistance in reopening due to the nature of its operations and the control it exerts on its property.