News on Annual Passes

[TraderStitch]

Based on the article, I think those with APs are the Superfans and better keep renewing or lose them.
That or a revamp will be coming along for APs. Either further limited date access or perhaps a different reservation system???

 

[imbelle]

That hypothetical family from Denver would not get into the parks because they knew nothing about having to have reservations.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Based on the article, I think those with APs are the Superfans and better keep renewing or lose them.
That or a revamp will be coming along for APs. Either further limited date access or perhaps a different reservation system???

Like cutting sales of new annual passes back to just weekday (no weekends or holidays) Pixie passes and without a resort stay limiting to three park reservations at a time? That kind of limiting date access and a different reservation system? Oh, and without a resort stay package, reservations for all annual passholders are limited to three to five holds. So, they have done just what you said.

 

[peteykirch]

That hypothetical family from Denver would not get into the parks because they knew nothing about having to have reservations.

The fact that guests who book stays on Disney property are getting blocked out of a park reservation is complete madness.

 

[The Jackal]

That hypothetical family from Denver would not get into the parks because they knew nothing about having to have reservations.

Well Bob, the family from Denver now has to save for 7 years instead of 5 years to go to WDW. Pre 2020 shutdown. How many days a year were the parks at maximum capacity? My guess is less than 7. The CEO is cutting costs by having fewer employees to deal with increased capacity. Lower capacity, attendance is down about 17% from 2019 data, raise prices on everything way more than inflation and offer fewer guest experiences = higher profits. The new park at Universal is most likely going to have a large affect on WDW attendance. UO is going from a 2-3 day park to a 4-5 day experience. If they can keep prices under control, it could be very bad for Disney.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

WHEN WILL NEW SALES OF ANNUAL PASSES RETURN TO WDW?

Here's a quote from Bob Chapek in his interview with The Hollywood Reporter.
"We didn’t have a reservation system and we didn’t control the number of annual passes we distributed ... ." [Emphasis added.] (https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...559b750588fa294c4118c3d431ece25fe1a54157ddbd4, pub. September 10, 2022, accessed September 12, 2022.)

That is the best information to when the new sales of annual passes will come back. Disney has capped the number of annual passes outstanding. That bears repeating. Upon introduction of the park reservation system and the character passes on September 8, 2022, Disney also decided to put a limit on the number of annual passes they would sell.

So, the answer to when new sales of annual passes will come back is when they have enough annual passes in inventory to sustain sales for a reasonable period of time. With the cap in place, they get the inventory from current passholders who do not renew. They could also get new capacity from raising their artificial cap on attendance or adding new attractions. But, that is gate capacity and does not translate directly into raising the number of annual passes Disney will sell to get a favorable mix. Disney has to actually decide to add to the annual passholder limits. It is not automatic.

When current passholders say they are renewing only because they fear they will not be able to get an annual pass again later, that just makes Disney's replenishment rate slower. It will take longer for them to gather inventory from outstanding annual passes not renewed to support new sales. But, that does not translate into saying new APs will not go on sale any time soon. We do not know how close they are to reaching their goal of having enough in inventory to re-open new sales. Disney could choose to add more annual passes to the current cap. People might not renew in greater numbers for many reasons. So, new sales could be imminent if their inventory is close to reaching a sufficient number to sustain new sales for a reasonable time. When new sales reopen there is likely to be a virtual queue.

 

[Scalemaster34]

WHEN WILL NEW SALES OF ANNUAL PASSES RETURN TO WDW?

Here's a quote from Bob Chapek in his interview with The Hollywood Reporter.
"We didn’t have a reservation system and we didn’t control the number of annual passes we distributed ... ." [Emphasis added.] (https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...559b750588fa294c4118c3d431ece25fe1a54157ddbd4, pub. September 10, 2022, accessed September 12, 2022.)

That is the best information to when the new sales of annual passes will come back. Disney has capped the number of annual passes outstanding. That bears repeating. Upon introduction of the park reservation system and the character passes on September 8, 2022, Disney also decided to put a limit on the number of annual passes they would sell.

So, the answer to when new sales of annual passes will come back is when they have enough annual passes in inventory to sustain sales for a reasonable period of time. With the cap in place, they get the inventory from current passholders who do not renew. They could also get new capacity from raising their artificial cap on attendance or adding new attractions. But, that is gate capacity and does not translate directly into raising the number of annual passes Disney will sell to get a favorable mix. Disney has to actually decide to add to the annual passholder limits. It is not automatic.

When current passholders say they are renewing only because they fear they will not be able to get an annual pass again later, that just makes Disney's replenishment rate slower. It will take longer for them to gather inventory from outstanding annual passes not renewed to support new sales. But, that does not translate into saying new APs will not go on sale any time soon. We do not know how close they are to reaching their goal of having enough in inventory to re-open new sales. Disney could choose to add more annual passes to the current cap. People might not renew in greater numbers for many reasons. So, new sales could be imminent if their inventory is close to reaching a sufficient number to sustain new sales for a reasonable time. When new sales reopen there is likely to be a virtual queue.

So it's now an exclusive club... you have to wait for someone to die or stop paying their dues (renewing their pass). So where is the waiting list?

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

So it's now an exclusive club... you have to wait for someone to die or stop paying their dues (renewing their pass). So where is the waiting list?

Basically, yes. No waiting list. Once new sales open there will be a virtual queue. That is not my original idea. I saw it in a blog.

 

[aka Charles]

WHEN WILL NEW SALES OF ANNUAL PASSES RETURN TO WDW?

Here's a quote from Bob Chapek in his interview with The Hollywood Reporter.
"We didn’t have a reservation system and we didn’t control the number of annual passes we distributed ... ." [Emphasis added.] (https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...559b750588fa294c4118c3d431ece25fe1a54157ddbd4, pub. September 10, 2022, accessed September 12, 2022.)

That is the best information to when the new sales of annual passes will come back. Disney has capped the number of annual passes outstanding. That bears repeating. Upon introduction of the park reservation system and the character passes on September 8, 2022, Disney also decided to put a limit on the number of annual passes they would sell.

So, the answer to when new sales of annual passes will come back is when they have enough annual passes in inventory to sustain sales for a reasonable period of time. With the cap in place, they get the inventory from current passholders who do not renew. They could also get new capacity from raising their artificial cap on attendance or adding new attractions. But, that is gate capacity and does not translate directly into raising the number of annual passes Disney will sell to get a favorable mix. Disney has to actually decide to add to the annual passholder limits. It is not automatic.

When current passholders say they are renewing only because they fear they will not be able to get an annual pass again later, that just makes Disney's replenishment rate slower. It will take longer for them to gather inventory from outstanding annual passes not renewed to support new sales. But, that does not translate into saying new APs will not go on sale any time soon. We do not know how close they are to reaching their goal of having enough in inventory to re-open new sales. Disney could choose to add more annual passes to the current cap. People might not renew in greater numbers for many reasons. So, new sales could be imminent if their inventory is close to reaching a sufficient number to sustain new sales for a reasonable time. When new sales reopen there is likely to be a virtual queue.

I agree that when they open up AP sales to everyone again, they will set a limit on the number of each type of AP that will be made available.

But I do not believe that they are waiting to build up inventory.
I believe that they are waiting because they want, or need, to revamp the whole AP program.
And they don't want to do that until after the lawsuit is settled, one way or another.
Otherwise they might have to revamp it twice... costly, and a PR nightmare.

My guess is once the courts have made their final ruling, Disney will incorporate the results into a totally new AP program, with limits and caps across the board.
Until then, we will just have to wait, and come here to vent, lol.

.

 

[DeeBee3]

I agree that when they open up AP sales to everyone again, they will set a limit on the number of each type of AP that will be made available.

But I do not believe that they are waiting to build up inventory.
I believe that they are waiting because they want, or need, to revamp the whole AP program.
And they don't want to do that until after the lawsuit is settled, one way or another.
Otherwise they might have to revamp it twice... costly, and a PR nightmare.

My guess is once the courts have made their final ruling, Disney will incorporate the results into a totally new AP program, with limits and caps across the board.
Until then, we will just have to wait, and come here to vent, lol.

.

If they wait for legal to be resolved, it will be a few years. Let's hope before that.

 

[RivShore]

WHEN WILL NEW SALES OF ANNUAL PASSES RETURN TO WDW?

Here's a quote from Bob Chapek in his interview with The Hollywood Reporter.
"We didn’t have a reservation system and we didn’t control the number of annual passes we distributed ... ." [Emphasis added.] (https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...559b750588fa294c4118c3d431ece25fe1a54157ddbd4, pub. September 10, 2022, accessed September 12, 2022.)

That is the best information to when the new sales of annual passes will come back. Disney has capped the number of annual passes outstanding. That bears repeating. Upon introduction of the park reservation system and the character passes on September 8, 2022, Disney also decided to put a limit on the number of annual passes they would sell.

So, the answer to when new sales of annual passes will come back is when they have enough annual passes in inventory to sustain sales for a reasonable period of time. With the cap in place, they get the inventory from current passholders who do not renew. They could also get new capacity from raising their artificial cap on attendance or adding new attractions. But, that is gate capacity and does not translate directly into raising the number of annual passes Disney will sell to get a favorable mix. Disney has to actually decide to add to the annual passholder limits. It is not automatic.

When current passholders say they are renewing only because they fear they will not be able to get an annual pass again later, that just makes Disney's replenishment rate slower. It will take longer for them to gather inventory from outstanding annual passes not renewed to support new sales. But, that does not translate into saying new APs will not go on sale any time soon. We do not know how close they are to reaching their goal of having enough in inventory to re-open new sales. Disney could choose to add more annual passes to the current cap. People might not renew in greater numbers for many reasons. So, new sales could be imminent if their inventory is close to reaching a sufficient number to sustain new sales for a reasonable time. When new sales reopen there is likely to be a virtual queue.

That first bolded quote of yours was surprising to me - I guess i never thought about the fact that pre-covid, they would just sell as many AP's as they could without regard for the impacts to park capacity. They really made a mess...

 

[RivShore]

I agree that when they open up AP sales to everyone again, they will set a limit on the number of each type of AP that will be made available.

But I do not believe that they are waiting to build up inventory.
I believe that they are waiting because they want, or need, to revamp the whole AP program.
And they don't want to do that until after the lawsuit is settled, one way or another.
Otherwise they might have to revamp it twice... costly, and a PR nightmare.

My guess is once the courts have made their final ruling, Disney will incorporate the results into a totally new AP program, with limits and caps across the board.
Until then, we will just have to wait, and come here to vent, lol.

.

It's not just the lawsuit, it is a question of overall demand, both AP and one-timers. Once demand slows, I think things will change quickly.

 

[Jrb1979]

It's not just the lawsuit, it is a question of overall demand, both AP and one-timers. Once demand slows, I think things will change quickly.

Maybe but I don't see them selling a bunch of APs if that happens. I see them opening up more reservation slots of AP holders to fill the parks.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Maybe but I don't see them selling a bunch of APs if that happens. I see them opening up more reservation slots of AP holders to fill the parks.

I agree. They will use all of their other levers first before raising the cap on the number of APs distributed.

 

[RivShore]

Maybe but I don't see them selling a bunch of APs if that happens. I see them opening up more reservation slots of AP holders to fill the parks.

You could be right, though I think we have been able to get nearly every reservation we have wanted since we have had AP's for the last year, but we also stay away on weekends and holidays. Have WDW AP's been locked out lately because we have not seen that at all?

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

You could be right, though I think we have been able to get nearly every reservation we have wanted since we have had AP's for the last year, but we also stay away on weekends and holidays. Have WDW AP's been locked out lately because we have not seen that at all?

I saw it at WDW before the California lawsuit was filed. Then the priority seemed to flip giving priority to the AP bucket without resort reservations. This switch in priorities was apparently confirmed last spring by the bloggers. They noticed too. Just a few times after that with the last one I noticed the AP bucket was shorted was on Mother’s Day. That could change drastically if Disney prevails in the CA lawsuit.

But, consider this. The California lawsuit only addresses the Dream Key and only Disneyland Resort. Even if Disney wins that one, if they go too far in limiting the AP bucket they could face another class action lawsuit focused on Disney World. That does not appear to be foreclosed by the California lawsuit. So, that risk alone might convince Disney to keep the park reservation system, the buckets of availability and the cap limits on total APs distributed. In other words, Disney appears to acknowledge that they have some responsibility in making sure there are adequate reservations available for APs distributed while also having the ability to have room in the parks for the Denver family. That means they do need to hold back some last minute ticket spots. Tough to do when the APs are watching them.

 

[HopperFan]

That first bolded quote of yours was surprising to me - I guess i never thought about the fact that pre-covid, they would just sell as many AP's as they could without regard for the impacts to park capacity. They really made a mess...

And parks were rarely closed due to capacity so it really wasn't a problem.

The point of the reservation system is to move guests into parks that are "slow" so guests will spend money there and Disney can staff evenly across the board (although clearly minimally too). The reservation system is of no benefit to guests.

You could be right, though I think we have been able to get nearly every reservation we have wanted since we have had AP's for the last year, but we also stay away on weekends and holidays. Have WDW AP's been locked out lately because we have not seen that at all?

None of our trips (5) or any time I check for availability (often) were we ever locked out of every park. A couple times MK was not available but became available as we got closer.

Currently we have availability at all parks, all days the remainder of the year. We have even been offered bonus days.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

With new AP sales being unavailable and so many people caught out, I think it is going to play havoc with DVC sales and values. It might depress the housing market near WDW!

My guess is at WDW there are maybe 400,000 to 500,000 former passholders who got caught without an AP and that does not account for new growth.

What a mess!

 

[TraderStitch]

Looking at the sales numbers over the past few months, DVC still looks strong.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Looking at the sales numbers over the past few months, DVC still looks strong.

Not surprised at that. Real estate response to something like this is much slower. Right now peeps are looking for real estate type investments that are in markets unlikely to suffer sudden value drops as they pull money from stocks.