WHEN WILL NEW SALES OF ANNUAL PASSES RETURN TO WDW?
Here's a quote from Bob Chapek in his interview with The Hollywood Reporter.
"We didn’t have a reservation system and
we didn’t control the number of annual passes we distributed ... ." [Emphasis added.] (
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...559b750588fa294c4118c3d431ece25fe1a54157ddbd4, pub. September 10, 2022, accessed September 12, 2022.)
That is the best information to when the new sales of annual passes will come back. Disney has capped the number of annual passes outstanding. That bears repeating. Upon introduction of the park reservation system and the character passes on September 8, 2022, Disney also decided to put a limit on the number of annual passes they would sell.
So, the answer to when new sales of annual passes will come back is when they have enough annual passes in inventory to sustain sales for a reasonable period of time. With the cap in place, they get the inventory from current passholders who do not renew. They could also get new capacity from raising their artificial cap on attendance or adding new attractions. But, that is gate capacity and does not translate directly into raising the number of annual passes Disney will sell to get a favorable mix. Disney has to actually decide to add to the annual passholder limits. It is not automatic.
When current passholders say they are renewing only because they fear they will not be able to get an annual pass again later, that just makes Disney's replenishment rate slower. It will take longer for them to gather inventory from outstanding annual passes not renewed to support new sales. But, that does not translate into saying new APs will not go on sale any time soon. We do not know how close they are to reaching their goal of having enough in inventory to re-open new sales. Disney could choose to add more annual passes to the current cap. People might not renew in greater numbers for many reasons. So, new sales could be imminent if their inventory is close to reaching a sufficient number to sustain new sales for a reasonable time. When new sales reopen there is likely to be a virtual queue.