When will the hotel bubble pop?

[GatorChris]

We'd all like to thin that prices will go down. But we all know they won't. I was looking at a December trip this year. Prices are up $100/night at Park Place BW and all the other short-walk hotels. I ended up booking Portofino for half of what my normal haunts are asking. It just means the end of each day isn't an easy walk into my room - it's a loooonnngg walk to the hotel.

That's what happens when we all just keep going back for more punishment year after year. "Please, sir, can I have some more?"

 

[Bossy22]

We'd all like to thin that prices will go down. But we all know they won't. I was looking at a December trip this year. Prices are up $100/night at Park Place BW and all the other short-walk hotels. I ended up booking Portofino for half of what my normal haunts are asking. It just means the end of each day isn't an easy walk into my room - it's a loooonnngg walk to the hotel.

That's what happens when we all just keep going back for more punishment year after year. "Please, sir, can I have some more?"

I think this will start happening more and more. We've loved just staying accross the road but if it stays up in price we are going to have to start looking farther away. I guess if enough people start booking farther away the close ones should at least stop raising prices lol

 

[StormyCA]

Sometimes I look back at old GCH threads and people talk about the hotel being close to $300. Imagine finding that rate now?

I remember those rates well. That was back in the day when there was a true 'off season' so Disney dropped rates to boost the number of 'bodies in the Parks'. We normally went in February and one trip we were able to book an extra night at the DLH for $67! It had to do with a 'new' discount on packages and a credit given on a previously booked higher-rate package.

Those days are long gone, never to return. Now with park reservations, Disney can (and does) allocate staffing, hours, and 'refurbs' based on known numbers. They can tailor their expenses to the number of reservations being booked and increase or decrease those numbers as they see fit. This allows them to keep those rack rates high. No need to lure in bodies with attractive prices.

 

[DizMe]

It's hard to think of many things these days that don't cost a lot more than they used to. Disneyland is not alone in raising prices. I remember buying a new car for $3500. I can spend that much on a short trip to DLR now, but DLR was also way cheaper at the time I got that $3500 car.

 

[pindecisive]

It's not even that long ago. I remember in late 2019 paying $50 for an Uber from LAX to DL. It's twice that now.

 

[take36]

It's not even that long ago. I remember in late 2019 paying $50 for an Uber from LAX to DL. It's twice that now.

Regular Uber or XL? I just got back over spring break and paid 55 (tip included) for LAX to DL mid morning on a Sunday. Prices vary so best to "test out" the prices before you get there and try to game the system a bit to get the average price.

 

[DontSpamMe]

Just in January 2019 we had an incredible trip to Disneyland with 5 nights at the Disneyland hotel for $260 a night. They upgraded us to a suite overlooking the pool due to low occupancy. By far our best trip ever there.

My hope is the COVID Disney demand starts its decline this year and we can get start getting back to some resemblance of an offseason.

 

[GoofyGoofyGoofy]

When families used to take a family vacation no matter if it was to an amusement park or a just a weekend getaway or visiting relatives for a week it used to be that the motel or hotel was the most important part of the vacation that people never worried about the cost of because people especially families needed the space and comfort for the kids but when motels and hotels started getting pricey and too expensive many families stayed at their relatives house rather than a motel or hotel. In Anaheim the same thing is happening as well because when you're a city like Anaheim you have one top draw and that is Disneyland and when you look at the general picture a lot of the big hotels in Anaheim have raised prices because they like to promote Disneyland a lot by giving guests free Disneyland shuttle service and the Disneyland ticket kiosks in the hotel lobbies that enable guests to purchase park tickets and much more. But when you look at it the motels in Anaheim are the ones that are cheaper because they offer better deals and you can get the same deals as the big hotels. It's no secret why the successful motels in Anaheim such as Castle Inn And Suites and Candy Cane Inn offer deals all the time during special events at Disneyland and people go there because it's inexpensive. But some of the small motels in Anaheim such as Super 8 and Kings Inn are favored by many people because Disneyland is just a short drive away from those motels. But in my eyes what really hurt hotels and motels and is still hurting motels and hotels was the pandemic and when Disneyland closed in 2020 a lot of those hotels and motels were really affected by this but when Disneyland reopened in 2021 the motels and hotels slowly returned to making money but raising prices for rooms and yet with Anaheim building new hotels all the time the old hotels have become forgotten about because people like the new hotels. Another example of how Anaheim hotels and motels get so pricey is they will offer deals for rooms and then sell out fast when they have special events such as conventions and Anaheim Angels baseball games and if you go during a Anaheim Angels game the hotel prices will skyrocket making at difficult to find a hotel room much like Steve Martin's character in the movie Planes Trains And Automobiles. But as more events and happenings at Disneyland occur Anaheim will always raise the prices for motels and hotels for years to come. But my advice to anyone is if you can't find a hotel in Anaheim go look in the next city and you'll find a cheaper hotel there and you can easily drive to Disneyland quickly

Well said! Knott's Berry Farm is 6 miles away. They are refurbishing the hotel. I think they have a shuttle that runs to Disneyland too.

 

[DCLMP]

It will end rather soon and rather abruptly. Once all that extra cash saved during covid dries up, and the greed/inflation kicks in on a daily basis for the majority of folks, vacations funds will be the first to go.

I agree we're headed toward a recession. They can't increase supply so they'll break demand by causing a credit squeeze. It's just a matter of time. For those that keep their jobs, it should become more affordable.

When it comes to Disneyland conventions play the biggest factor in offsite hotel prices. If you can find a week without a big convention going on you'll see better prices. Weekends are sometimes even cheaper than weekdays.

 

[PirateBrigade]

Sometimes I look back at old GCH threads and people talk about the hotel being close to $300. Imagine finding that rate now?

I remember those days, and I definitely remember the rate/date... we paid $380/night for Sun-Tues over MLK weekend in 2017 (just found the receipt). Pretty sure the lowest that month was $333.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Can you imagine how much more crowded the parks would be if tickets and hotels got cheaper? You can’t have both cheap prices and low crowds.

 

[SOCALMouseMommy]

Can you imagine how much more crowded the parks would be if tickets and hotels got cheaper? You can’t have both cheap prices and low crowds.

With the reservation system they couldn’t really get more crowded … though maybe fewer “less crowded” days. It’s almost always crowded now, even during the week.

 

[Bossy22]

Can you imagine how much more crowded the parks would be if tickets and hotels got cheaper? You can’t have both cheap prices and low crowds.

We could if demand slows down. Our last experience at DL was our worst in the last 12 years (9 trips) and we are taking longer to go back. It costs us almost twice as much and we got about 1/2 the experience. Last summer the parks were slammed and it was almost unbearable. I'm very curious to see how this summer goes. If it stays slammed all summer it really might be the new norm but I do think that everyone has been going post covid but the vacation funds have got to start drying up soon. We'll see I guess.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

We could if demand slows down. Our last experience at DL was our worst in the last 12 years (9 trips) and we are taking longer to go back. It costs us almost twice as much and we got about 1/2 the experience. Last summer the parks were slammed and it was almost unbearable. I'm very curious to see how this summer goes. If it stays slammed all summer it really might be the new norm but I do think that everyone has been going post covid but the vacation funds have got to start drying up soon. We'll see I guess.

I think EVERYONE is hoping for demand to slow down. We are all hoping that other people are stop wanting to go so we can go more ourselves. Not sure if it’ll happen that way though. Not unless we get a severe recession. But that’s why DLR and WDW are still selling APs. Disney is getting ready for the possibility and are trying to keep the parks full in the event of a slowdown, which means, the parks will probably remain crowded.

 

[DLgal]

With the reservation system they couldn’t really get more crowded … though maybe fewer “less crowded” days. It’s almost always crowded now, even during the week.

Interestingly, I think the crowds now have mostly everything to do with whether there is a "special event" going on at Disneyland. On days where the parks are just in "standard mode", it's very low crowds.

I know this is a small sample size. But I went to the parks Tuesday of last week and also yesterday. Tuesday was INSANE. DCA was the most crowded I've seen it since the Holiday time. It was the last day of the Food and Wine festival and it was PACKED. I didn't even ride anything that day. I ate some lunch, did some shopping, and bailed out.

Yesterday, by contrast, was WONDERFUL. Crowds were low, wait times were moderate (under 30 minutes for several major attractions throughout the day) and walkways were nice and open. We were at both parks between noon and 10:30pm. It was a flawless day. We sailed right into the Mickey and Friends parking structure at 11:45 and drove right up to the booth. This is NOT typical. We did a TON of rides, no Genie+. We barely even used our DAS because ride lines were manageable. There was absolutely nothing special happening this weekend.

Next weekend starts the Star Wars "month" so I'm betting on much larger crowds.

I feel like DL will slowly adopt the Epcot mentality of "must always have a festival or special themed event" and we will start to see more and more extended periods where something "special" is happening if attendance takes a nosedive in response to economic issues.

 

[DLgal]

Sometimes I look back at old GCH threads and people talk about the hotel being close to $300. Imagine finding that rate now?

Wanna hear something crazy?

The first time we stayed CL at the Grand was in 2007. We got a military discount rate. I pulled out the receipts.

We paid $279/night. For club level.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Wanna hear something crazy?

The first time we stayed CL at the Grand was in 2007. We got a military discount rate. I pulled out the receipts.

We paid $279/night. For club level.

That is crazy! Even before any discount, it probably would have been around $400. Craziness!

 

[gelatoni fan]

Interestingly, I think the crowds now have mostly everything to do with whether there is a "special event" going on at Disneyland. On days where the parks are just in "standard mode", it's very low crowds.

I know this is a small sample size. But I went to the parks Tuesday of last week and also yesterday. Tuesday was INSANE. DCA was the most crowded I've seen it since the Holiday time. It was the last day of the Food and Wine festival and it was PACKED. I didn't even ride anything that day. I ate some lunch, did some shopping, and bailed out.

Yesterday, by contrast, was WONDERFUL. Crowds were low, wait times were moderate (under 30 minutes for several major attractions throughout the day) and walkways were nice and open. We were at both parks between noon and 10:30pm. It was a flawless day. We sailed right into the Mickey and Friends parking structure at 11:45 and drove right up to the booth. This is NOT typical. We did a TON of rides, no Genie+. We barely even used our DAS because ride lines were manageable. There was absolutely nothing special happening this weekend.

Next weekend starts the Star Wars "month" so I'm betting on much larger crowds.

I feel like DL will slowly adopt the Epcot mentality of "must always have a festival or special themed event" and we will start to see more and more extended periods where something "special" is happening if attendance takes a nosedive in response to economic issues.

I agree with this assessment. I think part of it is that Disneyland has gotten too complicated for normies. With park reservations, Genie+ and the difficulty of getting dining reservations, the people who visit are more prepared and those who don't want to deal with it often decide to not go. Being more prepared means that people are more likely to pay attention to the special events. Years ago, I didn't feel like Halloween Party at Disneyland affected wait times that much during the day but in 2021, Guardians of the Galaxy had consistently 30-45 minutes longer waits on days that had the Halloween Party.

Hong Kong and Tokyo crowd patterns have long been more attuned to special events but I definitely feel it a lot more in California now. Hong Kong has adopted a strategy where every couple of months, they have an exclusive show that only runs for 2-3 days. Reservations basically never run out in Hong Kong but on those days, Annual Passholder reservations do run out.

 

[xipotec]

With the reservation system they couldn’t really get more crowded … though maybe fewer “less crowded” days. It’s almost always crowded now, even during the week.

The reservation system is not to keep crowds down, Its a labor tool so they know the smallest amount of labor they need any given day to meet the basic needs of the parks.

 

[SOCALMouseMommy]

The reservation system is not to keep crowds down, Its a labor tool so they know the smallest amount of labor they need any given day to meet the basic needs of the parks.

This is correct. But once reservations are sold out, they are sold out unless cancelations occur or Disney releases more. It’s not unlimited capacity.