2021 Savings vs Disney's Cash Rates by Resort

[Turn the Page]

Eh, CBR is only a better location if you are in a building within walking distance of the station. Like OKW and SSR, CBR is massive and has an internal bus system. If you have to take a bus to get to the station the location benefit quickly becomes negligible.

 

[Lva5]

You'd have to have some of that good pixie dust to pay $741 to stay in a RIV studio, though.

I mean it's locationally equivalent to AoA/Pop, which have better theming.

Not everyone has theming as their sole criteria...

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Not better, but on par with. You can't walk directly to a park from either Poly or Riv, you have to take some form of transportationto get anywhere and I would much rather take the Skyliner than the monorail. It's faster, better views, and the doors don't fall off. Plus, we like the EPCOT area better. But, as always, YMMV.

It will be a lengthy walk, but once the GF to MK walkway opens, you will be able to walk from Poly to MK.

 

[Lva5]

Thanks for putting this together!

Definitely a lot of useful info but I'm a bit confused about your inflation and TVM calculations. What inflation metric are you pricing in?

I don't have the data but I think cash rates have had a higher inflation rate than MFs - by a decent margin. Rental points will obviously also have their own inflation rate.

 

[CastAStone]

Thanks for putting this together!

Definitely a lot of useful info but I'm a bit confused about your inflation and TVM calculations. What inflation metric are you pricing in?

I don't have the data but I think cash rates have had a higher inflation rate than MFs - by a decent margin. Rental points will obviously also have their own inflation rate.

Inflation is just 2% - it assumes you’ll do nothing with your money in the future but that future money is worth less than current money due to inflation. I did not adjust for price changes as we have no idea what they will be. Cash rates have increased sharply but the % discounts for deluxe villas have slowly crept from 20 to 35 percent over the last several years. DVC price inflation has slowed. It’s very possible a recession will stop it completely while inflation in general increases. So I don’t find it worth guessing at.

The TVM/opportunity cost is 6.5%. That’s they typical return in the S&P after factoring back inflation. The premise is that if you put $25000 in an index fund now and paid for your trips out of that instead of using it to buy DVC, you’d be able to make a lot of trips before you run out of cash. If the % number is positive in the chart though, you are still coming out ahead with DVC (again, before accounting for room discounts)

does that make any sense? I’m not good at explaining this stuff.

 

[Doberge]

Yeah I have trouble believing Riviera will cost nearly as much as the monorail resorts in 10 years. I'd expect it to price more in the BW/YC/BC range. But for now, that's the price.

I suspect Riviera cash prices are high as a means to justify to DVC buyers the point cost per night, plus it's an easier "sell" to a buyer to show them the "tremendous value" vs. paying cash.

I agree Riv cash prices will come more in line with BCV and BWV but I believe will settle ahead of both as Skyliner popularity grows and, really, the difference in finishes of Riviera compared to BWV and BCV. But who knows, maybe finishes will decrease with the first hard refurbishment after selling out.

I also think BCV and BWV point charts and cash prices will increase substantially when resold after 2042, but that's a discussion +20 years early.

 

[holyrita]

Where do you find the Disney cash prices for 2021? I've been trying to get the Disney rack rates for trips I have planned in 2021, but when I search on Disney's site there's no availability so I can't get a price.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I like the Skyliner but I think it has a flaw due to the weather in Central Florida. When it is running properly, it is fabulous and convenient. When it shuts down due to lightning or wind it becomes a pain in the rear end to get where you want to go.

I’d honestly rather know that a bus will be running when I need it. It’s an unpopular opinion, but I don’t mind the busses. I’ve had lots of friendly chats with people from all over the world on them. YMMV.

 

[RoseGold]

Eh, CBR is only a better location if you are in a building within walking distance of the station

Well let me know when you think $741versus $350 is reasonable for a walk to the same gondola. And CB has a better pool!

RIV's cash price is ridiculous. Poly and VGF's are not. They have whole wings they sell out at those prices.

 

[CastAStone]

Where do you find the Disney cash prices for 2021? I've been trying to get the Disney rack rates for trips I have planned in 2021, but when I search on Disney's site there's no availability so I can't get a price.

Type the name of any resort into google along with the word “Mousesavers”

 

[MassMike21]

Awesome work!! Although this takes into account the inflation and alternative investment aspect, it does also assume that point rental doesn't change. Does anyone have an idea on the historical increases in the point rental market?

I would presume without factoring in the potential cost of the increase in point market or cash rooms in the future the best math to go off would be the 'simple math' CastAStone presented and presume that the other costs will somewhat follow inflation and potential investment trends.

*Edit* Actually, no that wouldn't be prudent to throw out that since the investment up front is so heavy.

 

[Red Dog Run]

Inflation is just 2% - it assumes you’ll do nothing with your money in the future but that future money is worth less than current money due to inflation. I did not adjust for price changes as we have no idea what they will be. Cash rates have increased sharply but the % discounts for deluxe villas have slowly crept from 20 to 35 percent over the last several years. DVC price inflation has slowed. It’s very possible a recession will stop it completely while inflation in general increases. So I don’t find it worth guessing at.

The TVM/opportunity cost is 6.5%. That’s they typical return in the S&P after factoring back inflation. The premise is that if you put $25000 in an index fund now and paid for your trips out of that instead of using it to buy DVC, you’d be able to make a lot of trips before you run out of cash. If the % number is positive in the chart though, you are still coming out ahead with DVC (again, before accounting for room discounts)

does that make any sense? I’m not good at explaining this stuff.

Dude, I'm just gonna take your word for it.... No need to explain. LOL

 

[CastAStone]

Awesome work!! Although this takes into account the inflation and alternative investment aspect, it does also assume that point rental doesn't change. Does anyone have an idea on the historical increases in the point rental market?

It assumes that point rental costs will stay a constant price vs the cost of cash today. So in other words they will inflate at parity with inflation.

 

[CastAStone]

Awesome work!! Although this takes into account the inflation and alternative investment aspect, it does also assume that point rental doesn't change. Does anyone have an idea on the historical increases in the point rental market?

I would presume without factoring in the potential cost of the increase in point market or cash rooms in the future the best math to go off would be the 'simple math' CastAStone presented and presume that the other costs will somewhat follow inflation and potential investment trends.

*Edit* Actually, no that wouldn't be prudent to throw out that since the investment up front is so heavy.

I think people should factor in some sort of deflation over time if for no other reason than there's a lot of risk associated with buying a prepaid vacation plan where the company providing the vacations is allowed to change the terms of the vacation plan unilaterally at any time. They could say tomorrow "Disney World is closing forever but we're keeping the DVC resorts open and you need to keep paying those annual dues!" and there would be nothing members could really do. That's the extreme scenario but certainly things could change that would hurt the value of your vacation ownership plan or make you no longer desire to use it.

 

[striker1064]

They could say tomorrow "Disney World is closing forever but we're keeping the DVC resorts open and you need to keep paying those annual dues!"

That is, in fact, in the contract, along with other oddities the average buyer probably wouldn't even consider (there's no guarantee there will always be animals at AKV, for example). Every time someone asks me in person for DVC advice, I always ask them if they're comfortable with having a timeshare in Florida if the parks close for good. Unlikely though it may be, things can and do happen.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

That is, in fact, in the contract, along with other oddities the average buyer probably wouldn't even consider (there's no guarantee there will always be animals at AKV, for example). Every time someone asks me in person for DVC advice, I always ask them if they're comfortable with having a timeshare in Florida if the parks close for good. Unlikely though it may be, things can and do happen.

Well, if FL becomes rather uninhabitable with climate change them we're screwed...

 

[Bing Showei]

Well, if FL becomes rather uninhabitable with climate change them we're screwed...

[Cue the Jackal]

It doesn’t even have to be to that extreme. Just this past Spring/Summer, for a period, parks were closed, hotels were closed, pools were closed, restaurants were closed, spas were closed, mass transit was closed... but what was open? Your timeshare.

What’s in the POS sounds far fetched and extreme when looked at in a sea of legalese (that most owners never even read - and most resale owners never even see), but this year was a stark reminder of the reality of what we bought. A lot of owners were left dealing with it. Vacations ruined, renters upset, but at the end of the day, it is what we bought.

 

[Mumof4mice]

That is, in fact, in the contract, along with other oddities the average buyer probably wouldn't even consider (there's no guarantee there will always be animals at AKV, for example). Every time someone asks me in person for DVC advice, I always ask them if they're comfortable with having a timeshare in Florida if the parks close for good. Unlikely though it may be, things can and do happen.

I bought fully aware that there was no guarantee the parks, the monorail, the very hotels our timeshares were attached to, would continue to exist. The resale restrictions and various petty changes didn't bother me until they upset my friends. I have to admit I thought my expectations were low and realistically achievable!

But no. The real level of preparedness required for DVC ownership is "can't legally travel to barebone timeshare even if willing to risk life threatening illness". Future crisis would no doubt raise (or is it lower?) the bar.

I don't regret our DVC purchase (bought with fun budget that would have 100% disappeared). But won't be buying more points... at least until Disney launches YCV.

 

[Lva5]

I suspect Riviera cash prices are high as a means to justify to DVC buyers the point cost per night, plus it's an easier "sell" to a buyer to show them the "tremendous value" vs. paying cash.

That sounds a lot like the tail wagging the dog to me but brings up an interesting point.

I don't have the data so obviously could be way off base but I'd be surprised if the DVC market rivals their cash business or is as important to them as many people here seem to think. It seems to me like a hedge to lock in future cash flows at somewhat reduced margins; the cash rooms I imagine are a bigger profit center and the main driver of price there - I think - would be demand.

 

[Doberge]

I don't have the data so obviously could be way off base but I'd be surprised if the DVC market rivals their cash business or is as important to them as many people here seem to think. It seems to me like a hedge to lock in future cash flows at somewhat reduced margins; the cash rooms I imagine are a bigger profit center and the main driver of price there - I think - would be demand.

I'm cynical because Disney does everything it can to squeeze more profits, as it probably should as a publicly traded company (I don't throw WDWC shade for appealing tomshareholders). With DVC, the "newish" thing is to shoot for revenue by keeping 100% of everything over breakage. Disney makes more money by members not using points and then converting to cash inventory to chip away at breakage cap before straight profiting.

I agree that demand is the number one driver of price but with new resorts it's uncertain how much demand will exist. Maybe Disney thought Galaxy's Edge and EPCOT renovations would draw heavily and that Disney could charge a premium on new resort. While I love Riviera I can see cash buyers questioning why pay more for a resort so near a moderate and values when money can be saved at a crescent lake resort (or at aforementioned moderate or values). I'd bet on lackluster cash demand eventually forcing lower cash growth rates compared to BC, BW, and YC.