Adding on vs Swolphin

[lowlight]

This is the problem. For example - the week we usually travel in August (which is typically super reasonable) is showing rooms for $700. However, I booked the Swan for 12/31/2024 for $299. Makes no sense.

And while I agree it would have been a smarter financial move to buy BWV a few years back, I think if you can find a fully loaded contract for under $100/ pt, it can work especially given the BWV point chart.

Any big conferences that week can likely do that. Marriott screwed up pricing (and points usage) with their dynamic pricing algorithm.

 

[tom1944]

We will most likely book a 4 day stay there in August of 2025 to combine with the 207 DVC points we have available for the rest of our stay.

The idea of staying at Swan or Dolphin is justification to delay adding another contract at the moment. That will give us another stay so 3 years in a row under our original contract.

We might do a New York/New England lake vacation in 2026 to decide if we want to Disney every year or are alternate years enough.

I am an over thinker and tend to create situations that help me determine whether to spend money on something or not.

 

[AstroBlasters]

This is the problem. For example - the week we usually travel in August (which is typically super reasonable) is showing rooms for $700. However, I booked the Swan for 12/31/2024 for $299. Makes no sense.

And while I agree it would have been a smarter financial move to buy BWV a few years back, I think if you can find a fully loaded contract for under $100/ pt, it can work especially given the BWV point chart.

Given that the point chart…. I don’t even think you need to get the points that low….

I got a loaded 55 pointer for $131… which I will sell off this years points for $18pp and bring the adjusted cost down to $113pp.

$113pp/17 years = $6.65pp.
Dues are $8.67pp.

Amortized buy in $15.32pp

I’m not a studio person, but for comparison to hotel a BV Studio over spring break is around 19pp. So that’s $291 per night…..

My 2 bedroom is $781 per night….

The hotels also have a 12.5% tax as well… whereas DVC does not…

 

[Brian Noble]

The most important question is: Do you need more DVC points? In other words, do you want to spend more nights each year at WDW and/or do you want to upgrade your unit size/view/etc, and do you want to do that consistently for the next 15 years?

Last time I looked, buying BCV was underwater vs. just renting there. Granted, you have to actually find an owner who will rent to you, but unless you absolutely positively must stay at BCV more often than not, buying here is a tough sell.

That leaves BWV, which brings me back to the question above. If the answer to that is "not really" or even "I'm not sure" then buying makes no sense. Just stay at one of the Starwood properties, rent as you go, etc. I think I am only buying BWV right now if the answer to that question is unequivocally "yes".

I do not think buying and selling later is realistic with any '42 resort at this point. If I am buying one of those, I am buying it to ride it all the way to the ground.

(This of course reminds me of a great but very NSFW song by The Offspring. "Slim Pickens well he does the right thing...")

 

[tom1944]

The most important question is: Do you need more DVC points? In other words, do you want to spend more nights each year at WDW and/or do you want to upgrade your unit size/view/etc, and do you want to do that consistently for the next 15 years?

That is where we are now. I actually put in bids for a second contract and then there was the thread about the cost of dues in the future and that got me thinking.

We will have 3 trips since we made our initial purchase and those trips are providing some guidance on how long we like to stay, how many bedrooms do we need, do we enjoy split stays, does Swan Dolphin provide an option to maximize our points occasionally and finally do we want to go every year or every other year.

I can delay the decision on a second contract for a little while.

 

[Brian Noble]

The other thing I will warn you about is those first few trips can be intoxicating. I had been badgering to add to our timeshare portfolio, and getting some pushback. After our second trip to OKW, she looked at me and said: "Whatever you have to do for us to do this more often, do it."

I'm not sure that today-her would agree with yesterday-her, but so it goes.

 

[PaddingtonStation]

The most important question is: Do you need more DVC points? In other words, do you want to spend more nights each year at WDW and/or do you want to upgrade your unit size/view/etc, and do you want to do that consistently for the next 15 years?

Last time I looked, buying BCV was underwater vs. just renting there. Granted, you have to actually find an owner who will rent to you, but unless you absolutely positively must stay at BCV more often than not, buying here is a tough sell.

That leaves BWV, which brings me back to the question above. If the answer to that is "not really" or even "I'm not sure" then buying makes no sense. Just stay at one of the Starwood properties, rent as you go, etc. I think I am only buying BWV right now if the answer to that question is unequivocally "yes".

I do not think buying and selling later is realistic with any '42 resort at this point. If I am buying one of those, I am buying it to ride it all the way to the ground.

I think this is what it boils down to, thank you for putting it so well. When we are planning a trip, I think I will 1. Check Swolphin prices, if high 2. Consider renting, while 3. keeping an eye out for a well-priced contract. So all of the above

 

[BuzzLightyr]

A marriott credit card basically serves as the equivalent of a DVC contract for the swan/dolphin.
Nights typically run 50k marriott points per night
A $99 credit card would give you a 35k marriott point certificate that you can pay the difference in points for.
The premium chase (ritz) and amex cards will give you a 50k certificate.
Marriott points are worth roughly $0.7 per point.

A Swan/Dolphin night would on points would run about $350.
A BWV studio would run about 19 points. At 20/point (MB pricing, and in between where points cost to rent and could be rented) that's $380.

Credit Cards + Marriott points from other stays - make it a pretty reasonable alternative to accumulate points.

If you're looking at a 40 point (2 night) contract - Two premium credit card annual fees could cover that. Or take two regular credit cards and wait for some spending bonuses (5x groceries/gas) and earn the points needed to top up the account.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I’ve been looking at the Swalphin prices and everyone is spot on, they’re all over the place with no rhyme or reason! I do like predictability…this may open a new can of worms, but I’m surprised that BCV/BWV resale prices are still so high, do you think they’ll start dropping soon?

I do not think prices will drop much soon (for the reasons @intamin and @AstroBlasters laid out)—UNLESS DVC cracks down on commercial renting (because it’s currently extremely profitable to rent BWV if you focus on optimal dates)— even if they do crack down on commercial rentals, I would be surprised if BWV doesn’t stay above $80/pt until the end of this decade (for contracts under 125 points), and I would expect BCV to do about the same or better. Neither make a lot of sense as an investment at current prices, but if you’re determined to stay at either property every year (or two) until 2042, it’s much cheaper than paying hotel rates and you won’t be able to count on renting (at least at BCV).

I also think many of us would start loading up points if BCV/BWV start declining much below $80-90, and stay more often or in bigger units for the final decade of stays.

 

[tom1944]

The other thing I will warn you about is those first few trips can be intoxicating. I had been badgering to add to our timeshare portfolio, and getting some pushback. After our second trip to OKW, she looked at me and said: "Whatever you have to do for us to do this more often, do it."

I'm not sure that today-her would agree with yesterday-her, but so it goes.

That thread on the dues being equivalent to the cost of my first house did get me thinking.

I think 3 trips and then a year some where else will provide the information we need.

There are so many options. Go every year, go every other year, go 2 out of 3. It makes a difference in the commitment/points and ultimately that issue with dues.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

That thread on the dues being equivalent to the cost of my first house did get me thinking.

I think 3 trips and then a year some where else will provide the information we need.

There are so many options. Go every year, go every other year, go 2 out of 3. It makes a difference in the commitment/points and ultimately that issue with dues.

I personally worry about the go every three year plan because if you bank and borrow and then can’t make a trip work (illness, injury, work commitment) you’re sitting on a lot of points with limited flexibility—but I know some seem to make it work (well I’m not sure we’ve ever actually heard from a person who has done every three years for more than a few cycles?)— if you are going every three years with banking and borrowing, I would think it’s important to have desirable points that you can easily rent — though it doesn’t help if you are renting inside the seven month window. Does DVC trip insurance work here?

 

[tom1944]

I personally worry about the go every three year plan because if you bank and borrow and then can’t make a trip work (illness, injury, work commitment) you’re sitting on a lot of points with limited flexibility—but I know some seem to make it work (well I’m not sure we’ve ever actually heard from a person who has done every three years for more than a few cycles?)— if you are going every three years with banking and borrowing, I would think it’s important to have desirable points that you can easily rent — though it doesn’t help if you are renting inside the seven month window. Does DVC trip insurance work here?

Same

I think it will come down to either every year or every other.

The final decision will be made by a current 5 year old.

 

[Brian Noble]

The problem with five year olds is that they don't stay five.

My first five year old is 25, and would gladly go to WDW as often as I was willing to take them. My second five year old "aged out" of WDW at about 15, or maybe a year or two earlier. They'd rather go hiking, surfing, or snorkeling.

 

[tom1944]

The problem with five year olds is that they don't stay five.

My first five year old is 25, and would gladly go to WDW as often as I was willing to take them. My second five year old "aged out" of WDW at about 15, or maybe a year or two earlier. They'd rather go hiking, surfing, or snorkeling.

I’m 66 and my wife claims I stayed 5.

 

[intamin]

I personally worry about the go every three year plan because if you bank and borrow and then can’t make a trip work (illness, injury, work commitment) you’re sitting on a lot of points with limited flexibility—but I know some seem to make it work (well I’m not sure we’ve ever actually heard from a person who has done every three years for more than a few cycles?)— if you are going every three years with banking and borrowing, I would think it’s important to have desirable points that you can easily rent — though it doesn’t help if you are renting inside the seven month window. Does DVC trip insurance work here?

Not only that but even if you do go, what are the chances you use EXACTLY 3 years worth of points? At some point you’re going to have leftovers on that third year and then you’ll have to bank it and you’ll be left with 2 years of points and change after banking/borrowing instead of the full 3. Every other year works out much better.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

Given that the point chart…. I don’t even think you need to get the points that low….

I got a loaded 55 pointer for $131… which I will sell off this years points for $18pp and bring the adjusted cost down to $113pp.

$113pp/17 years = $6.65pp.
Dues are $8.67pp.

Amortized buy in $15.32pp

I’m not a studio person, but for comparison to hotel a BV Studio over spring break is around 19pp. So that’s $291 per night…..

My 2 bedroom is $781 per night….

The hotels also have a 12.5% tax as well… whereas DVC does not…

Not to mention the $40 daily resort fee + $35 parking fee (if you drive).

 

[AstroBlasters]

Not to mention the $40 daily resort fee + $35 parking fee (if you drive).

Yes…. little things like that. Non-DVC people (not people on this thread) are always saying “the dues!”…. and my response is…”yes, that is part of the equation… Now let’s review all of your ticky tack fees that aren’t in the online price for your hotel and how much your all-in price has gone up over the last 5,10,15 years….”

I’m not saying DVC is always going to be the best option… but there are a variety of factors to consider over the next 17 years….

 

[Genie+]

Tldr version: DVC is complex

I think it comes down to what makes you most comfortable after considering all factors and how they apply to you. Some are predictable, others not. It always involves guesswork. The best we can do is try choosing the path most likely to have least regret.

Even with decent Swolphin pricing, the fees kill it. $45+tax resort fee, $36+tax parking, $35+tax for 3rd adult (18+), $35+tax 4th. For my family of 4, this equals OVER $165 PER NIGHT. Doesn’t matter if I get the $227/nt date or $457/nt date, I must also add this $167/nt. Dealbreaker. We’re starting to do 2 studios for the 4 of us or just go as a couple, but fees still add $100/nt in those comparisons.

We keep returning to the Crescent Lake area with car/family, don’t have Marriot points, and enjoy using DVC. BW and BC resale prices stay at the top of cost per point per year breakdowns because there’s probably alot of other people like us that looked beyond just the buy-in cost/pt.

Some of what pushed us to buy BWV:

Lower average points per night meant smaller contract could suffice. Has the added benefit of lower dues/nt avg. We have averaged 13pts/nt for our BW studios reservations (mix of std and BW view) with an average dues cost per night of $110. That makes the $6pp/py buy-in so much more acceptable.

After applying high TVM to the buy-in, and booking expensive seasons more regularly, I’m still near ~$350/nt avg cost. Only regularly booking Easter or Christmas breaks past $400/nt territory. And if I instead paired those trips with May/Dec/Jan trips alternatively, the average comes back down under $350/nt. What’s going to matter most is which rooms we choose and get, and their cost per night on average. Mixing in 10pt/nt trips drives that average down.

Even comparing SSR’s $3pp/py resale cost, BW’s $3 premium per point delivers on location and partially offset by BW lowering our average points used per night. We popped into BW 5 nights for 50pts with no regrets on buy-in premium paid. They’d need 60pts for those 5 nights, which makes my premium nearly a wash. (Without applying TVM to either) my BW per night ($6+$8.67)x10pts=$147/nt to SSR ($3+$8.14)=$133. The difference is $14/nt. Sold! I’d pay that to quadruple my chances at staying Crescent Lake 5 nights in a row (especially on top of a very reasonable price).

In the end the risk felt greater that S&D has little under $400/nt, leaving me to regret either accepting that price or moving to a moderate that is still costing me what BWV could have. I took the bet our most likely outcomes end up $300/nt avg cost to use our BWV, including reasonable TVM. Only time will tell how we actually used the contract, how enjoyable it was, how much we paid per night, what other competition arises, etc. We plan to use until the end but I can’t predict we won’t sell in 10 years or even what that price may be. Weigh the knowns and likelihoods - decide a path probably best for us to take.

I’m leaning on some of the advantages but tried to be fair. Main point is to explain why people still choose BW/BC.

Another option for existing owner is getting a transfer of BW points to take a ride around the block. Good fit or not so much?

 

[AstroBlasters]

Tldr version: DVC is complex

I think it comes down to what makes you most comfortable after considering all factors and how they apply to you. Some are predictable, others not. It always involves guesswork. The best we can do is try choosing the path most likely to have least regret.

Even with decent Swolphin pricing, the fees kill it. $45+tax resort fee, $36+tax parking, $35+tax for 3rd adult (18+), $35+tax 4th. For my family of 4, this equals OVER $165 PER NIGHT. Doesn’t matter if I get the $227/nt date or $457/nt date, I must also add this $167/nt. Dealbreaker. We’re starting to do 2 studios for the 4 of us or just go as a couple, but fees still add $100/nt in those comparisons.

We keep returning to the Crescent Lake area with car/family, don’t have Marriot points, and enjoy using DVC. BW and BC resale prices stay at the top of cost per point per year breakdowns because there’s probably alot of other people like us that looked beyond just the buy-in cost/pt.

Some of what pushed us to buy BWV:

Lower average points per night meant smaller contract could suffice. Has the added benefit of lower dues/nt avg. We have averaged 13pts/nt for our BW studios reservations (mix of std and BW view) with an average dues cost per night of $110. That makes the $6pp/py buy-in so much more acceptable.

After applying high TVM to the buy-in, and booking expensive seasons more regularly, I’m still near ~$350/nt avg cost. Only regularly booking Easter or Christmas breaks past $400/nt territory. And if I instead paired those trips with May/Dec/Jan trips alternatively, the average comes back down under $350/nt. What’s going to matter most is which rooms we choose and get, and their cost per night on average. Mixing in 10pt/nt trips drives that average down.

Even comparing SSR’s $3pp/py resale cost, BW’s $3 premium per point delivers on location and partially offset by BW lowering our average points used per night. We popped into BW 5 nights for 50pts with no regrets on buy-in premium paid. They’d need 60pts for those 5 nights, which makes my premium nearly a wash. (Without applying TVM to either) my BW per night ($6+$8.67)x10pts=$147/nt to SSR ($3+$8.14)=$133. The difference is $14/nt. Sold! I’d pay that to quadruple my chances at staying Crescent Lake 5 nights in a row (especially on top of a very reasonable price).

In the end the risk felt greater that S&D has little under $400/nt, leaving me to regret either accepting that price or moving to a moderate that is still costing me what BWV could have. I took the bet our most likely outcomes end up $300/nt avg cost to use our BWV, including reasonable TVM. Only time will tell how we actually used the contract, how enjoyable it was, how much we paid per night, what other competition arises, etc. We plan to use until the end but I can’t predict we won’t sell in 10 years or even what that price may be. Weigh the knowns and likelihoods - decide a path probably best for us to take.

I’m leaning on some of the advantages but tried to be fair. Main point is to explain why people still choose BW/BC.

Another option for existing owner is getting a transfer of BW points to take a ride around the block. Good fit or not so much?

 

[Genie+]

Aww thank you