Well, unless you're planning on going to the parks within the next month, don't renew. The measly 10% off they give you for a renewal discount is more than made up by the time value of money between now and February. If you decide that APs are right for you, buy them in time for your February trip, so that they start when you get to the park entrance in February.
Note that Presidents' Day 2007 will be on the 19th, so roughly the same week as it will be in 2006. This would imply that you will not get a lot of overlap between an AP bought for a Feb 06 trip and a Feb 07 trip. That is assuming that your February break is tied to Presidents' Day like it is in our district.
If there is a good possibility of getting 12 park days out of your APs, then the AP is the way to go, and not MYW. Figure your APs are going to run you $314 for 10+ (plus whatever price increase they put in this coming January). By contrast, 6 day MYW park hopping tickets (with expiry) will run you $228 or more with advance purchase (plus any potential price increase), and that would be times 2. The APs have the advantage of whatever discounts and perks they decide to offer in 2006; heck if the DDE card is offered again, I am going to be an AP holder again if the breakeven point is even close. Of course, my breakeven is 7 park days spread over two or more trips (MYW w/PH & no exp ~$300 vs $314 for DVC discounted AP).
Good luck with your figuring!