Beyond Big Thunder

[Memorymakerfor4]

Frontierland is my favorite land in MK and it's shrinking. I love the old Disney IP like Donald Duck and Humphrey the Bear and think a dark ride would tie in nicely. Those old cartoons are some of my favorite!

 

[rstevens333]

Hear me out – What if what's beyond Big Thunder is... Potatoland?

 

[Brian Noble]

Slinky Dog definitely falls in the family thrilling category,

I'm not sure how they did it, but somehow Slinky is almost entirely forceless. It looks like it should be more exciting--they even have that run of bunny hills after the 2nd launch--but somehow it just isn't.

My coaster-dork daughter pronounced it one-and-done.

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

I don't follow your logic there. Is it because some of the colonies were slave states?

My thought is that TWDC views the lanterns to be a symbol of colonialism, and thereby, its offensive and not inclusive.

I like the liberty tree and I think it is important to the land, but TWDC and I agree to disagree on a great number of re-theming decisions.

 

[BrianL]

Hear me out – What if what's beyond Big Thunder is... Potatoland?

Oh man, I LOVE Potatoland! I think they are going to build that in Idaho though.

 

[Dis]

Black Panther can't be used at WDW, he's on the list of Islands of Adventures characters. That's the big problem with the agreement with Universal, Guardians is on a very short list of characters that CAN be featured at WDW. Disney got very lucky that the franchise blew up for them.

Universal Orlando Resort currently has a contract in place with Marvel Comics that gives them theme park rights for an indefinite period of time, essentially blocking Disney World from having the Avengers Campus and several other Marvel attractions in its Orlando theme parks1. The contract, which dates back to 1994, allows Universal Orlando to construct and maintain a “Marvel Universe” within their planned second gate (a.k.a. the future Islands of Adventure). As long as Universal continues to operate and maintain their Marvel-themed attractions in accordance with the contract standards, the agreement remains in effect2. Specifically:

• Universal has exclusive rights East of the Mississippi but can only use them within Islands of Adventure (IOA) in Florida.
• The contract is essentially in perpetuity, meaning it has no fixed expiration date.
• Universal must operate and maintain the Marvel Universe in a first-class manner consistent with theme park industry standards2.

Therefore, unless Universal decides to close Marvel Super Hero Island, stops making payments for property usage, or Marvel opts out of the contract, the arrangement will continue indefinitely2. It’s a fascinating example of how contractual agreements shape the theme park landscape!

 

[OKW Lover]

Universal Orlando Resort currently has a contract in place with Marvel Comics that gives them theme park rights for an indefinite period of time, essentially blocking Disney World from having the Avengers Campus and several other Marvel attractions in its Orlando theme parks1. The contract, which dates back to 1994, allows Universal Orlando to construct and maintain a “Marvel Universe” within their planned second gate (a.k.a. the future Islands of Adventure). As long as Universal continues to operate and maintain their Marvel-themed attractions in accordance with the contract standards, the agreement remains in effect2. Specifically:

• Universal has exclusive rights East of the Mississippi but can only use them within Islands of Adventure (IOA) in Florida.
• The contract is essentially in perpetuity, meaning it has no fixed expiration date.
• Universal must operate and maintain the Marvel Universe in a first-class manner consistent with theme park industry standards2.

Therefore, unless Universal decides to close Marvel Super Hero Island, stops making payments for property usage, or Marvel opts out of the contract, the arrangement will continue indefinitely2. It’s a fascinating example of how contractual agreements shape the theme park landscape!

I wonder if Disney might be willing to negotiate with Universal Orlando to end the contract. How big a part of UO is the Marvel segment? Not terribly large i would guess. Would UO be agreeable to terminating the contract in return for some large amount of money? Plus perhaps a delay of several years before those characters could appear at WDW?

Just because there is a current contract that doesn't mean the two parties couldn't change it.

 

[Topaz Scorpio]

I wonder if Disney might be willing to negotiate with Universal Orlando to end the contract. How big a part of UO is the Marvel segment? Not terribly large i would guess. Would UO be agreeable to terminating the contract in return for some large amount of money? Plus perhaps a delay of several years before those characters could appear at WDW?

Just because there is a current contract that doesn't mean the two parties couldn't change it.

I’m sure after Disney bought Marvel they actively sought to buy Universal out of that contract and Universal either wouldn’t budge or was asking for an amount of money far and beyond what Disney was willing to pay. I honestly thought for a time there that Disney might try to buy Comcast to get Universal (minus NBC kind of like the Fox deal) but that does not appear likely to ever happen especially now with the Marvel films declining at the box office.

 

[Leigh L]

I wonder if Disney might be willing to negotiate with Universal Orlando to end the contract. How big a part of UO is the Marvel segment? Not terribly large i would guess. Would UO be agreeable to terminating the contract in return for some large amount of money? Plus perhaps a delay of several years before those characters could appear at WDW?

Just because there is a current contract that doesn't mean the two parties couldn't change it.

This is speculation but I’d guess not. At least for now. While IOA has Potter and Jurassic Park areas, the Lost Continent and Comics area needs help. Taking out Marvel would have a big impact I think.

If Lost Continent (which I think is being renovated?) and Comic sections are redone, and the Marvel area attractions start breaking to the point it’s not worth maintenance (since UO can’t change or add new Marvel things) then I could see things changing and UO maybe letting Marvel go?

The Marvel area has at least four main attractions (I’m not a Marvel fan but it’s pretty popular from what I can see).

(Edited since I should never post from my phone )

 

[Jwaire]

The actual Universal/Marvel agreement.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1262449/000119312510008732/dex1057.htm

It's only for certain characters that are members of the Avengers, X-Men and Fantastic Four. New or unused characters created after the agreement was signed in 1994, are free game for Disney. Universal is also stuck using the 1994 and earlier designs/costumes. They can't use the modern style of Iron Man, etc.

So potentially we could maybe see Ms. Marvel (maybe?) or some of the newer ones someday that Universal didn't use or were created after.

There have been rumors Universal and Disney have gotten into it a few times over the agreement. If you remember the Avengers monorail wrap and also Dr. Strange meet and greet, which didn't last long.

Disney has no reason to try to end the agreement anyway until they have the money (and desire) to do something with Marvel franchise in Florida. They're making bank on the licensing fees and get a large percentage of Marvel merchandise sold at Universal.

In Japan, Universal just gave Spiderman rights back to Disney by closing their Spiderman attraction in Osaka.

https://www.insideuniversal.net/202...officially-closes-at-universal-studios-japan/

 

[fatmanatee]

I wonder if Disney might be willing to negotiate with Universal Orlando to end the contract. How big a part of UO is the Marvel segment? Not terribly large i would guess. Would UO be agreeable to terminating the contract in return for some large amount of money? Plus perhaps a delay of several years before those characters could appear at WDW?

Just because there is a current contract that doesn't mean the two parties couldn't change it.

The value of not allowing your competitor to use a massive IP can’t be overstated. That’s Wakanda in AK, or an Avengers Campus in HS. We could have easily had both by now. Instead Disney got very lucky with Guardians blowing up, not sure what they would have done otherwise.

 

[OKW Lover]

Disney has no reason to try to end the agreement anyway until they have the money (and desire) to do something with Marvel franchise in Florida. They're making bank on the licensing fees and get a large percentage of Marvel merchandise sold at Universal.

Interesting points. I'd first say that having the money to do it isn't really a barrier. They have the money and the ability to finance it. But beyond that I do wonder if they might feel that the Marvel properties they do have are enough as it is.

I wonder what the licensing fees amount to. And would it be with it to get 100% of the Marvel merchandise otherwise sold at UO. Hmmmmm.....

 

[BayTower2010]

Disney is a great study in the advantages of being patient. How many years did they wait to get Oswald the Rabbit rights, and for practically nothing. The movie Frozen was based on a Hans Christian Anderson story that Walt himself was interested in, it took some 60 years for Disney creatives came up with the right hook to make the story work. I am sure there are other examples-my point being that Disney will not be in any hurry or overpay Comcast for Marvel rights

 

[Jwaire]

Interesting points. I'd first say that having the money to do it isn't really a barrier. They have the money and the ability to finance it.

I feel like money is always the barrier with The Walt Disney Company. That's why the EPCOT "transformation" was so scaled down—the Mary Poppins ride wasn't built, Spaceship Earth wasn't refurbished, no animatronics on Cosmic Rewind, the Wonders of Life Pavilion is still just sitting there, no festival building, etc.

You have the President of Disneyland openly admitting that each park (and DCL) is competing against each other for their share of the $60 billion allocated over 10 years (out of thin air, mind you).

They still owe a ton on their Fox debt, they haven't paid for Hulu yet either and they still owe Comcast billions (they've only made one $8+ billion payment, the bare minimum they owe is like $27 billion).

So, I'd say they have some concerns.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

I feel like money is always the barrier with The Walt Disney Company. That's why the EPCOT "transformation" was so scaled down—the Mary Poppins ride wasn't built, Spaceship Earth wasn't refurbished, no animatronics on Cosmic Rewind, the Wonders of Life Pavilion is still just sitting there, no festival building, etc.

You have the President of Disneyland openly admitting that each park (and DCL) is competing against each other for their share of the $60 billion allocated over 10 years (out of thin air, mind you).

They still owe a ton on their Fox debt, they haven't paid for Hulu yet either and they still owe Comcast billions (they've only made one $8+ billion payment, the bare minimum they owe is like $27 billion).

So, I'd say they have some concerns.

Then they should just make corporate changes and sell off most of the IP and assets they bought from 21st Century Fox. It isn’t too late for Disney to just sell those off, right? The only Fox IP Disney can keep are X-Men, Fantastic Four, Deadpool, Avatar, and the first six Star Wars films. Plus, in 2009, four years after the Weinsteins left Disney, Miramax was slowly integrated into the Walt Disney Studios unit, until it was sold off in 2010. It could work, right?

They could sell off most of the Fox IP/assets and instead sign a deal with someone else, like Sony, to boost D+/Hulu. In fact, many film studios are already licensing their content to Hulu.

"new" Fox can have 20th Century Studios, Searchlight, and most of the IP and other assets, since they own Tubi, which can be helpful for a revived 20th Century Fox.

 

[OKW Lover]

I feel like money is always the barrier with The Walt Disney Company. That's why the EPCOT "transformation" was so scaled down—the Mary Poppins ride wasn't built, Spaceship Earth wasn't refurbished, no animatronics on Cosmic Rewind, the Wonders of Life Pavilion is still just sitting there, no festival building, etc.

You have the President of Disneyland openly admitting that each park (and DCL) is competing against each other for their share of the $60 billion allocated over 10 years (out of thin air, mind you).

They still owe a ton on their Fox debt, they haven't paid for Hulu yet either and they still owe Comcast billions (they've only made one $8+ billion payment, the bare minimum they owe is like $27 billion).

So, I'd say they have some concerns.

In the world of corporate finance there's a difference between the budgeting money for park expansion and having the money for acquiring new IP. Pacing development in the parks has little to do with the search for the next major acquisition.

 

[bryaalre]

I feel like money is always the barrier with The Walt Disney Company. That's why the EPCOT "transformation" was so scaled down—the Mary Poppins ride wasn't built, Spaceship Earth wasn't refurbished, no animatronics on Cosmic Rewind, the Wonders of Life Pavilion is still just sitting there, no festival building, etc.

You have the President of Disneyland openly admitting that each park (and DCL) is competing against each other for their share of the $60 billion allocated over 10 years (out of thin air, mind you).

They still owe a ton on their Fox debt, they haven't paid for Hulu yet either and they still owe Comcast billions (they've only made one $8+ billion payment, the bare minimum they owe is like $27 billion).

So, I'd say they have some concerns.

The $8B payment made to Comcast was for the minimum amount due should the value of Hulu not exceed $27B. At the moment, they do not owe anymore on the Hulu acquisition unless the valuation comes above the $27B that was set in the contract.

There will be two appraisers that will value Hulu and if the two evaluators’ final valuations are within 10% of each other, the average of the two determinations will be the price at which Hulu is valued. If the two banks’ assessments aren’t within a 10% range of each other, then Disney and Comcast would agree to hire a third investment bank to make another valuation conclusion. To set the sale price, that third valuation would then be averaged with the previous assessment that’s closest to it. Again, at the moment, Disney has already made payment to Comcast for their 33% ownership if Hulu is valued at or below $27B. We will see how much higher, if at all, it is above $27B and if so, Disney will cut a check for 33% of the difference.

Also, the debt is not that bad anymore. Their borrowings and Long Term liabilities looked to have maxed out at around $70B on the 2020 annual statement but their latest quarter has that total around $54B. During this 3 years, Disney reduced their debt by $16B, made the above mentioned $8B+ payment to Comcast and also reinstated the dividend. With Hulu completely purchased and streaming now looking to be profitable, the debt the maintain should be able to dwindle quickly and have no impact on the future of the company anymore.

 

[Captain UP]

The $8B payment made to Comcast was for the minimum amount due should the value of Hulu not exceed $27B. At the moment, they do not owe anymore on the Hulu acquisition unless the valuation comes above the $27B that was set in the contract.

There will be two appraisers that will value Hulu and if the two evaluators’ final valuations are within 10% of each other, the average of the two determinations will be the price at which Hulu is valued. If the two banks’ assessments aren’t within a 10% range of each other, then Disney and Comcast would agree to hire a third investment bank to make another valuation conclusion. To set the sale price, that third valuation would then be averaged with the previous assessment that’s closest to it. Again, at the moment, Disney has already made payment to Comcast for their 33% ownership if Hulu is valued at or below $27B. We will see how much higher, if at all, it is above $27B and if so, Disney will cut a check for 33% of the difference.

Also, the debt is not that bad anymore. Their borrowings and Long Term liabilities looked to have maxed out at around $70B on the 2020 annual statement but their latest quarter has that total around $54B. During this 3 years, Disney reduced their debt by $16B, made the above mentioned $8B+ payment to Comcast and also reinstated the dividend. With Hulu completely purchased and streaming now looking to be profitable, the debt the maintain should be able to dwindle quickly and have no impact on the future of the company anymore.

Phenomenal analysis. Thanks!

 

[dez1978]

This is speculation but I’d guess not. At least for now. While IOA has Potter and Jurassic Park areas, the Lost Continent and Comics area needs help. Taking out Marvel would have a big impact I think.

If Lost Continent (which I think is being renovated?) and Comic sections are redone, and the Marvel area attractions start breaking to the point it’s not worth maintenance (since UO can’t change or add new Marvel things) then I could see things changing and UO maybe letting Marvel go?

The Marvel area has at least four main attractions (I’m not a Marvel fan but it’s pretty popular from what I can see).

(Edited since I should never post from my phone )

Marvel Island would be a big loss I think for IOA. Hulk is a HUGE ride for them. And it isn't really that old. Imo, that would be the biggest ride loss as Spiderman is kind of lame and needs some updating. But the land as a whole is pretty cool. Having 2 boys, I never underestimate the power of superheroes lol. Add the fact that you can see Captain America and Spiderman wandering the area, and get pics without waiting in a huge line like meet and greets at Disney, is a pretty cool thing. As much as I love Disney, I'd hate to see Marvel leave Universal.

 

[BrianL]

Marvel Island would be a big loss I think for IOA. Hulk is a HUGE ride for them. And it isn't really that old. Imo, that would be the biggest ride loss as Spiderman is kind of lame and needs some updating. But the land as a whole is pretty cool. Having 2 boys, I never underestimate the power of superheroes lol. Add the fact that you can see Captain America and Spiderman wandering the area, and get pics without waiting in a huge line like meet and greets at Disney, is a pretty cool thing. As much as I love Disney, I'd hate to see Marvel leave Universal.

Hulk would be a reasonably easy retheme. Spider-Man though would be a major loss. Personally I say keep it - it actually has the coolest versions of the Marvel characters.