Current owners: Do you feel that renters are impacting resort availability?

[tx911]

Walking was explained to us by MS during our on boarding call … I had heard about it here before we purchased and thought of it as a loophole but when MS told us what it was and how to do it i no longer thought of it as a loophole. We didn’t ask, they volunteered the info.

Also unfortunate.

 

[DougEMG]

One tool that Disney has available to them right now and that they have used previously is to adjust the point cost of the rooms. It sounds like a lot of the complaints are around those low point cost / low supply rooms at high demand times. Change the point cost of the rooms so there is not such a premium.

I own at BWV and BLT and always book standard view because I am fruggle. Use to book studios and the family winnied enough that I now book 1 beds, but it was always a pain getting those standard studios even at 11 months years ago. Up the point cost of the standard rooms while lowering the point cost of the view rooms. This will change what I book. Reduce 1 bedroom points and increase studio points (pretty please). Lots of ways Disney could level out demand.

Another idea is that if owners are booking up rooms in advance of having a renter, then only allow X number of name changes per year.

 

[CarolMN]

One tool that Disney has available to them right now and that they have used previously is to adjust the point cost of the rooms. It sounds like a lot of the complaints are around those low point cost / low supply rooms at high demand times. Change the point cost of the rooms so there is not such a premium.

That would be almost impossible to do for AKV concierge and AKV value because of the small number of those rooms vs the number of standard and savanna view studios.

If there are 296 possible studios within AKV and only 10 of those are concierge and only 14 of those are value, how do you raise concierge and value enough to reduce the remaining 272 studios by 1 point each? If you reduce each of the 272 studios by 1, that would mean the 24 limited category studios would need to absorb 272 points! (about 10 -12 point increase per night). Of course, that would probably fix the problem. Who would book those studios at that price?

 

[ILoveMyDVC]

Yes, but specifically those that grab desired weeks to re-sell, and not a fan of the commercial renters because they aren't vested. They have no interest in how things work, what they look like, etc...they are simply interested in transactions. The random renters do not bother me as long as they impress upon their guests the rules.

 

[Chuck S]

Another idea is that if owners are booking up rooms in advance of having a renter, then only allow X number of name changes per year.

The only problem with trying to enforce that is there is no pressing reason to change the name of the primary. The primary isn't required to be present to check-in. A savvy owner could just leave his name as primary,and change the names of the other guests as needed,
Not that I'd be comfortable doing that, but commercial renters probably would be fine with it.

 

[samsp99]

Yes, but just like "Don MacGregor" has two memberships due to his two Use Years, "Don MacGregor" could have as many as 8 different memberships just by spreading them out across all Use Years, without changing anything else. The computing power to utilize a script to log onto each of those memberships concurrently is negligible. Now, add 8 more memberships under "Donald MacGregor" and 8 more under "DW MacGregor", and now I can have as many as 24 discrete memberships at a single home resort (or multiple, depending on my strategy), all of which can make one reservation at a time each, with the computer and script providing the ability to easily log on to all of them concurrently.

I'm not saying that is exactly what is happening, but it wouldn't take much effort to create a handful of separate legal entities with multiple Use Years providing multiple different memberships and then start grabbing up contracts. Or, conversely, if you wanted to fly under the radar, more entities buying fewer contracts each and utilizing fewer Use Years to avoid getting flagged by DVC. The difference would be the cost in setting up the LLC's ($125 in Florida), but the computer running the script doesn't care because it's all ones and zeros. I mean, for $1,500 and 2 or 3 hours worth of time filling out 12 virtually identical sets of documents, you could set up a discrete LLC for each one of the WDW DVC resorts (including FWC). That's 96 discrete memberships (12 LLC's with 8 Use Year based memberships each).

Here is some info on scalper bots and how they work (and how fast). This isn't a link to bots or where to find them, but discussions/resources to fight them:

Scalper Bots: What They Are and How to Fight Them

Scalping bots: What are they, how do they work & how can you beat them

Just a cursory review of those links (and plenty of others by searching) paints a very clear picture of how easy it is to utilize the bots to go well beyond simply buying Taylor Swift tickets.

** ETA: I'm not a computer guru, but I do know that stock trading bots are limited primarily by connection speed and their performance is measured in microseconds. Even if a scalper/rental bot is a thousand times slower, you're still talking fractions of a second. Now, at the Disney end.... that's a different story.

*** ETAA: A reasonably well-provisioned gaming laptop can probably run 30-40 bots concurrently. A purpose-built desktop unit can actually be assembled rather inexpensively as no sound cards or other peripherals are needed beyond only a basic video card. Just CPU's and RAM in a box. Those can run hundreds of bits at a time.

Again, I’m not saying this is for sure happening, but the concept is cheap, ready accessible, and already in practice in multiple other online interface ecosystems, so if there’s money to be made, someone will do it.

You don’t use a physical computer - you find out which cloud service disney is using, and which datacenter its in, and run your bot there. you probably only need <1min per day to snag as many reservations as you want. The cloud scaling makes this cheap and low millisecond latency as you are on the same network.

 

[samsp99]

One tool that Disney has available to them right now and that they have used previously is to adjust the point cost of the rooms. It sounds like a lot of the complaints are around those low point cost / low supply rooms at high demand times. Change the point cost of the rooms so there is not such a premium.

I own at BWV and BLT and always book standard view because I am fruggle. Use to book studios and the family winnied enough that I now book 1 beds, but it was always a pain getting those standard studios even at 11 months years ago. Up the point cost of the standard rooms while lowering the point cost of the view rooms. This will change what I book. Reduce 1 bedroom points and increase studio points (pretty please). Lots of ways Disney could level out demand.

Another idea is that if owners are booking up rooms in advance of having a renter, then only allow X number of name changes per year.

Another simple tool would be to limit high usage customers to only be able to book via the call center, rather than online. That would break their ability to snipe reservations using web bookings, and the manual cost of having to call would probably put them out of business.

 

[Bearval]

Another simple tool would be to limit high usage customers to only be able to book via the call center, rather than online. That would break their ability to snipe reservations using web bookings, and the manual cost of having to call would probably put them out of business.

That same manual cost would also apply to DVC and would have to be paid by an increase in MF's.

 

[CarolMN]

Another simple tool would be to limit high usage customers to only be able to book via the call center, rather than online. That would break their ability to snipe reservations using web bookings, and the manual cost of having to call would probably put them out of business.

AFAIK, the POS would not allow one subset of owners to be treated differently than the others for booking.

 

[Chuck S]

AFAIK, the POS would not allow one subset of owners to be treated differently than the others for booking.

And I'm pretty sure Florida State (and other states) Timeshare Boards would not look favorably upon it.

 

[DL1WDW2]

Don’t forget DVC is regulated in California (stricter regulations) and
Florida also, with an abundance of regulations to decipher.

 

[Bearval]

One tool that Disney has available to them right now and that they have used previously is to adjust the point cost of the rooms. It sounds like a lot of the complaints are around those low point cost / low supply rooms at high demand times. Change the point cost of the rooms so there is not such a premium.

I own at BWV and BLT and always book standard view because I am fruggle. Use to book studios and the family winnied enough that I now book 1 beds, but it was always a pain getting those standard studios even at 11 months years ago. Up the point cost of the standard rooms while lowering the point cost of the view rooms. This will change what I book. Reduce 1 bedroom points and increase studio points (pretty please). Lots of ways Disney could level out demand.

Another idea is that if owners are booking up rooms in advance of having a renter, then only allow X number of name changes per year.

I also feel they could make the one bedrooms more attractive by shifting some points between them and the studios. This could help take some of the booking pressure off of the studios and the two bedrooms since the current gap between a one and two bedroom is quite small in relation to the gap going from a studio and one bedroom.

 

[CWTC]

I also feel they could make the one bedrooms more attractive by shifting some points between them and the studios. This could help take some of the booking pressure off of the studios and the two bedrooms since the current gap between a one and two bedroom is quite small in relation to the gap going from a studio and one bedroom.

I think the cost differential between studios and 1 BRs though is valid - a 1 BR is substantially different and better than a studio. I’m not sure devaluing a room with more amenities and adding value to a room with less amenities is a solution.

 

[DonMacGregor]

You don’t use a physical computer - you find out which cloud service disney is using, and which datacenter its in, and run your bot there. you probably only need <1min per day to snag as many reservations as you want. The cloud scaling makes this cheap and low millisecond latency as you are on the same network.

True. I was just trying to put it into terms that would be scalable for most people. I was working off the thought that many people would understand or have read articles about day trading. That and the fact that some low-level ticket scalpers do run their bots from a local machine (which some may have read in the articles I linked upthread). Just to give an idea of how little computing power is needed to run the scheme.

 

[Nappy1380]

I absolutely have not read through all the comments, however the mechanics of how the points get used (by renters or owners) is not the problem. The points in circulation are what the are regardless, and things such as the Poly Bungalows, Cascade Cabins, etc push a ton of points into the system. The basis of having SAP is also something that squeezes the more in demand resorts.

 

[tjkraz]

I absolutely have not read through all the comments, however the mechanics of how the points get used (by renters or owners) is not the problem.

You probably should because it's an interesting discussion.

The points in circulation are what the are regardless, and things such as the Poly Bungalows, Cascade Cabins, etc push a ton of points into the system. The basis of having SAP is also something that squeezes the more in demand resorts.

The Bungalows and SAP points don't have any impact on 11 month availability of BWV Standard view or AKV Value / Club. I don't think anyone here is really trying to quantify or dispute the difficulties of booking non-home locations at 7 months. This is about what's happening 330+ days in advance.

 

[tjkraz]

Interesting early availability for the fort wilderness cabins. At the time this was pulled, most weeknights in October - November still have ~25 cabins unbooked. Yet Friday and Saturday nights are completely full for 6 weeks straight. Is this just members being members or....something else?

 

[Noodlez]

Interesting early availability for the fort wilderness cabins. At the time this was pulled, most weeknights in October - November still have ~25 cabins unbooked. Yet Friday and Saturday nights are completely full for 6 weeks straight. Is this just members being members or....something else?

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Well I've seen that one of the most prolific Facebook renters (someone who notoriously often advertises 20-50 at a time) is already offering confirmed reservations today!

 

[DonMacGregor]

Interesting early availability for the fort wilderness cabins. At the time this was pulled, most weeknights in October - November still have ~25 cabins unbooked. Yet Friday and Saturday nights are completely full for 6 weeks straight. Is this just members being members or....something else?

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I don't want to descend (pun intended) to moon landing conspiracy level, but it is curious that so many short weekend reservations are already booked. My understanding was/is that the cabins are typically (?) booked for full weeks on average, and this would appear to be bucking that trend. Also, it's highly unlikely that locals have flocked to A. buy points at the cabins, and B. have gobbled up a month and a half of weekends. But, who knows.

Now, keep in mind, that the campground is ridiculously popular at Halloween, but there sure seems to be a lot of mid-week availability all the way up to the week of Halloween.

 

[Chuck S]

Interesting early availability for the fort wilderness cabins. At the time this was pulled, most weeknights in October - November still have ~25 cabins unbooked. Yet Friday and Saturday nights are completely full for 6 weeks straight. Is this just members being members or....something else?

View attachment 854256

Hard to say. Remember that many members, historically, that live within a day driving disance (Florida, Georgia, Alabama), as well as those with small point contracts were booking Sunday thru Friday to save points. Has that trend ended?