Disney preparing for a "very prolonged shutdown"?

[ThistleMae]

No, I don't believe the governor can force a private business to open if they're not ready to open.

Oh sorry, I thought you meant it was up to Disney. And no, a governor can't do that.

 

[erin1715]

Heres a little optimism


https://www.kennythepirate.com/2020/04/22/disney-may-reopen-to-florida-residents-first/

 

[sam_gordon]

This article is from Monday, and while it is the gloomiest rumor....it's out there. No opening until January of 2021.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...Oa4DlBQqjjn07PFtii18Hjut8Xw9pLe_ZZKakVVEsO9K4

This article doesn't claim what you say it does. Nor does it say what the headline says.

One FINANCIAL analyst (not an infectious disease specialist and not a Disney advisor), who is apparently responsible for recommending what to do with stocks has decided on his own that Disney won't open until 2021. Based on that ASSUMPTION (which he readily admits is an assumption), he made a decision to downgrade his recommendation of buying Disney stock.

This is ONE person's idea of what COULD happen. He's not saying Disney SHOULD stay closed all year nor that they WILL. This is his GUESS on what will happen. But a bunch of people are taking this guy's GUESS and saying "See, Disney won't open until 2021!" And people say the media doesn't tell the truth.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Heres a little optimism


https://www.kennythepirate.com/2020/04/22/disney-may-reopen-to-florida-residents-first/

That would make sense...possibly try to just open one or two parks to Florida residents who are day trippers maybe? Allowing people to come from hot spots, like where I live, seems crazy. Also, the hotel stay length can be an issue too, as the longer people are there, the more likely someone who arrives sick but asymptomatic, gets symptomatic there...and spreads it.

Same applies to DCL....when they do cruise, and I think that'll be awhile. It'll be 3-4 day cruises...probably just to Castaway Cay. Possibly limit it to people under 65. And it's totally "cruise at your own risk". The pickle with DCL is....Florida ports have to accept COVID-19 patients into their hospital systems.

 

[JimMIA]

I got an email yesterday from a close relative who is involved in Florida's re-opening plans, and it is more complex than people think.

Florida has 67 counties. Right now, there are supposedly 17 counties with fewer than 10 cases, including a number with only 1 or 2 cases. At the other extreme, you have our home county, Miami-Dade, which has just over 10,000 cases but only 1,000 hospitalizations. So there is a wide variance in this geographically very large and very diverse state.

I think the plan is the governor is going to relax the statewide restrictions further in those counties with the lowest incidence of cases, while keeping the restrictions on our county and several others.

Also, once they reduce the restrictions, there will still be individual differences. They may open up a county completely, but those people with vulnerabilities will still need to isolate. They may also keep restrictions on certain businesses -- especially nursing homes.

So there is going to be a wide range of restriction/relaxation, depending on local circumstances. Nobody is just going to declare the problem "over" and say back to business as usual.

 

[JimMIA]

The pickle with DCL is....Florida ports have to accept COVID-19 patients into their hospital systems.

I don't know about other ports, but Port Everglades (Ft Lauderdale) and Port Miami have already established protocols with the Coast Guard for accepting cruise ships with covid-19 patients.

I'm not sure of the numbers, but we've taken a dozen of so ships, and we have a number of ships docked here with the crews still on board. Two RCCL crew members have died in the last few days in Miami hospitals from ships docked here.

 

[Searc]

I don't believe it's up to Disney, it's up to the Govenor.

The government can not force a private business to open, if they wish to remain closed. I know Disney will be smart about when and how they reopen.

 

[dvcgirl67]

This article doesn't claim what you say it does. Nor does it say what the headline says.

One FINANCIAL analyst (not an infectious disease specialist and not a Disney advisor), who is apparently responsible for recommending what to do with stocks has decided on his own that Disney won't open until 2021. Based on that ASSUMPTION (which he readily admits is an assumption), he made a decision to downgrade his recommendation of buying Disney stock.

This is ONE person's idea of what COULD happen. He's not saying Disney SHOULD stay closed all year nor that they WILL. This is his GUESS on what will happen. But a bunch of people are taking this guy's GUESS and saying "See, Disney won't open until 2021!" And people say the media doesn't tell the truth.

I have no idea what Disney will do. But there are people who cover the Theme Parks within the financial entertainment sector who are paid to come up with an analysis about how a company will behave. Those analysts are doing that now. For the record, there are several analysts who are predicting that the shutdown will be longer than the proposed June 1st opening. Others believe it will be a phased opening at best. Nobody is saying that Disney is "wide-open"....on June 1st.

It's the job of these professionals to try and figure out what Disney will do so they can inform their clients who own Disney stock...as to what their earnings outlook might be through 2020 and into 2021.

Honestly, I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense for Disney to open with the limited capacity and restrictions that are going to need to be in place. It's a big risk if you ask me. Then again, it's likely that if you do decide to go that you'll need to absolve Disney of any liability if you do contract COVID-19 at one of their parks or hotels.

And I can see a scenario where they're going to have to rotate through different Disney "cohorts" in order to not really just piss most people off. DVC week? Limited resorts only with only those guests with park admission. What about AP holders? Florida residents only? What about all of the zillions of off-site hotels and timeshares that are the pilot fish of the giant Disney shark? Are they completely out of the loop? On and on.

Just like everything right now, people are going to be making risk/reward calculations. People will go when they open, I have no doubt about that. They'll need to reset their expectations for what a Disney vacation will look like for awhile. Others will wait it out until the worst of this has blown over, a year or more if necessary.

 

[Searc]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned in other threads, but I feel better knowing Iger is in charge right now instead of Chapek.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I got an email yesterday from a close relative who is involved in Florida's re-opening plans, and it is more complex than people think.

Florida has 67 counties. Right now, there are supposedly 17 counties with fewer than 10 cases, including a number with only 1 or 2 cases. At the other extreme, you have our home county, Miami-Dade, which has just over 10,000 cases but only 1,000 hospitalizations. So there is a wide variance in this geographically very large and very diverse state.

I think the plan is the governor is going to relax the statewide restrictions further in those counties with the lowest incidence of cases, while keeping the restrictions on our county and several others.

Also, once they reduce the restrictions, there will still be individual differences. They may open up a county completely, but those people with vulnerabilities will still need to isolate. They may also keep restrictions on certain businesses -- especially nursing homes.

So there is going to be a wide range of restriction/relaxation, depending on local circumstances. Nobody is just going to declare the problem "over" and say back to business as usual.

Yup, same thing is going to happen up here. In NJ, a bunch of counties are "hot"....the closer to the city you get, the worse it gets. In south jersey, far fewer cases, and so when we "open"....they'll be first. Concerns will be say, opening up beaches in South Jersey, but not Central Jersey...meaning people will try to flood those beaches...and so on. There's a lot to take into account.

Disney is going to have to be super careful, and I'm sure they're thinking through things we can't even imagine. But I keep coming back to those early "super spreader" gatherings. The Biogen conference in Boston, the funeral in Albany Georgia, the 40th BD party in Connecticut. One person at all of those invents infected a lot of people, who then went off to other parts of their states, the country and even the world. Disney doesn't want to be the "super spreader" business....where people contract the virus there....and then take it back to states all over the country.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I don't know about other ports, but Port Everglades (Ft Lauderdale) and Port Miami have already established protocols with the Coast Guard for accepting cruise ships with covid-19 patients.

I'm not sure of the numbers, but we've taken a dozen of so ships, and we have a number of ships docked here with the crews still on board. Two RCCL crew members have died in the last few days in Miami hospitals from ships docked here.

Right, but that was for ships that were already out there right? The ones who got stuck at sea? Or is that for ships who cruise in the future?

I have been listening to Clark Howard's podcast lately. Initially, he was advising guests to take the 125% credit instead of a refund if they intended to book the cruise in the future. Now he's advising people to take the refund, for two reasons. First, we don't know which cruise lines will make it. And second, how much will cruise lines inflate prices in the near term. So that 125% is really only worth the original amount you paid. Smart advice.

 

[RamblingMad]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned in other threads, but I feel better knowing Iger is in charge right now instead of Chapek.

It’s become a streaming business. Buy for Disney+ and its networks. The rest of its business lines are nothing but expense.

 

[soccerdad72]

I would hope that all companies are currently going through a number of possible scenarios and planning many different strategies for opening up and protecting their customers. If that company isn't doing that right now, they shouldn't even think about opening anytime soon.

 

[dvcgirl67]

It’s become a streaming business. Buy for Disney+ and its networks. The rest of its business lines are nothing but expense.

Good point...but did you see the one thing I posted, that an idea being floated is for them to try and put up NBA players at the resorts and have them finish out the season at the ESPN complex? That's an interesting revenue idea. At least they'd get the games on TV....and some revenue for ESPN.

 

[JimMIA]

Right, but that was for ships that were already out there right? The ones who got stuck at sea? Or is that for ships who cruise in the future?

Both. Some were stuck at sea, some are based in one of the ports. Some sent their crews home; other's are housing them on board.

 

[Searc]

Good point...but did you see the one thing I posted, that an idea being floated is for them to try and put up NBA players at the resorts and have them finish out the season at the ESPN complex? That's an interesting revenue idea. At least they'd get the games on TV....and some revenue for ESPN.

It's definitely an interesting idea and one DH and I have been discussing once I read about it here last week. Of course, we want to see the season completed so the Bucks don't get screwed out of a championship.

 

[dvcgirl67]

It's definitely an interesting idea and one DH and I have been discussing once I read about it here last week. Of course, we want to see the season completed so the Bucks don't get screwed out of a championship.

They should totally do it...people are dying for anything sports related to watch this isn't your favorite team's championship game from 4 years ago! I think they'll end up doing the baseball season in Arizona idea too. One cool thing about this whole pandemic is that we can adapt, and how much we've all come to appreciate the little things.

 

[Nayan]

I know there are die-hard Disney fans who can't wait to go and will go when it's open, but I also wonder how many will not. I'm not just applying the idea to Disney, but I wonder how many folks will not go out to eat, movies, etc. when it's finally deemed safe to do so. I know I won't.

 

[anniemae]

I know there are die-hard Disney fans who can't wait to go and will go when it's open, but I also wonder how many will not. I'm not just applying the idea to Disney, but I wonder how many folks will not go out to eat, movies, etc. when it's finally deemed safe to do so. I know I won't.

I wonder if at first they will open to locals only.

 

[sam_gordon]

I have no idea what Disney will do. But there are people who cover the Theme Parks within the financial entertainment sector who are paid to come up with an analysis about how a company will behave. Those analysts are doing that now. For the record, there are several analysts who are predicting that the shutdown will be longer than the proposed June 1st opening. Others believe it will be a phased opening at best. Nobody is saying that Disney is "wide-open"....on June 1st.

It's the job of these professionals to try and figure out what Disney will do so they can inform their clients who own Disney stock...as to what their earnings outlook might be through 2020 and into 2021.

Honestly, I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense for Disney to open with the limited capacity and restrictions that are going to need to be in place. It's a big risk if you ask me. Then again, it's likely that if you do decide to go that you'll need to absolve Disney of any liability if you do contract COVID-19 at one of their parks or hotels.

And I can see a scenario where they're going to have to rotate through different Disney "cohorts" in order to not really just piss most people off. DVC week? Limited resorts only with only those guests with park admission. What about AP holders? Florida residents only? What about all of the zillions of off-site hotels and timeshares that are the pilot fish of the giant Disney shark? Are they completely out of the loop? On and on.

Just like everything right now, people are going to be making risk/reward calculations. People will go when they open, I have no doubt about that. They'll need to reset their expectations for what a Disney vacation will look like for awhile. Others will wait it out until the worst of this has blown over, a year or more if necessary.

What you just posted does nothing to say why we should care what this one financial analyst ASSUMES Disney will stay closed. He has to say whether he suggests buying the stock or not. He's assuming the parks will remain closed when he says he's "neutral" about what to do with the stock. He's not saying it will stay closed nor that it should. I'm not saying they'll be open June 1.

But why is so much weight being put on a single analyst saying "I'm assuming they stay closed through the year. Therefore, I'm neutral about whether to buy their stock." That's was all he was saying.