Hurricane Dorian FINALLY moving - updates pg 10

[ScubaCat]

There were gas shortages when we filled up the rental car on Friday evening. The gas station in front of the Boardwalk was almost out and other motorists reported nearby stations were completely out.

Could be true. A lot of that's due to panic topping-off vs. people actually needing it. I suspect they'll get refilled pretty quickly.

 

[JimMIA]

If you are in Central or NE Florida, I would certainly gas up as early as possible and then stop any unnecessary driving. Better to wait in line and have gas than to wait and not have gas. The closer the storm gets, the crazier things will get.

Right now the storm is almost stationary, but once it starts moving tomorrow people are going to freak out.

 

[JimMIA]

I'm going to wait for the 11 AM advisory before posting a map, but here are some basics as of the 8 AM advisories.

• Dorian passed over the Abacos, but they are still receiving hurricane force winds and the NHC is urging people there to remain in shelter. Their winds should weaken a little after midnight tonight, but it's still a very dangerous situation. We'll get some damage reports today, but it will be tomorrow before relief crews can get to Abaco and give us better assessments of the damage.
• Disney reported that the staff on Castaway Cay sheltered in place and were safe.
• The hurricane was crawling along the north shore of Grand Bahama and Freeport was receiving the worst of the winds. The tallest point on Grand Bahama is one rock that is 40 feet tall, so there is nothing but buildings to disrupt the winds. Forward speed is estimated at 1 mph. It's going to continue that crawling pace until tonight. Dorian is still a Cat 5 storm with sustained winds of 165+ mph and gusts to 200.
• Tonight, the storm is expected to pick up speed a little and move slightly north of the east end of Grand Bahama.

Proximity to Florida -- keep in mind that these locations are approximate and almost certainly will change.

• Tonight at 2 AM Tuesday, the center of Dorian is expected to be just north of Grand Bahama -- weakened slightly to Category 4
  • That's about 65 miles east of West Palm Beach
  • On the left side of the storm, hurricane force winds are expected to extend out 30 miles toward WPB
  • 50 kt winds ((57 mph) winds will extend out 50 miles
  • tropical storm force winds (39 mph) will extend out 100 miles, so WPB can expect at least those, and probably 50+ mph
• Tuesday 2 PM, the center is expected to be about 50 miles east of Ft Pierce/Vero Beach-- still Category 4
  • The wind field is the same as above, so that area should expect at least 55+ mph winds
• Wednesday 2 AM, the storm is expected to be roughly 35 miles east of Cape Canaveral-- weakened a little, but still Category 3, major hurricane
  • The windfield will have expanded a little, with 55+ winds extending 60 miles and tropical storm winds 110 miles which will reach Orlando and probably WDW. Cape Canaveral will probably sustain hurricane force winds.

 

[JimMIA]

Okay, here's the map. This map is actually the 8 AM interactive map, which they apparently only change once or twice per 24 hours -- but I like it better because it shows the windfield and gives a much better perspective.

As you can see, once the storm gets about even with Cape Canaveral, the path is expected to shift more toward the northeast, away from Florida. Dorian is expected to continue NE along the coast, and could impact the coasts of SC and NC, still as a Category 2 hurricane.



Here are the watches and warnings, which as expected, are now shifting north.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

 

[JimMIA]

Just want to add this additional bit of advice from the 11 AM NHC Forecast Discussion -- if you're in Central Florida, DO NOT FORGET THIS.

"It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely
dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the hurricane warning area.

In addition, Dorian's wind field is predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer to the east coast of Florida even if the track does not change."

As we frequently hear -- but not frequently enough -- a hurricane is not a dot on a map, it's a very large area of disturbed weather -- so don't focus on dots and lines.

 

[JimMIA]

2 PM map -- not much different except that you can see the tropical storm force winds are arriving at West Palm Beach. When I checked a minute ago, they only had light winds, but you could see the feeder bands approaching on radar. West Palm is expecting 40-60 mph winds this evening and tomorrow.



There are a couple of minor changes I should mention:

• First, as expected, Dorian has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph and gusts to 190. I don't know about you, but I don't think I could tell much difference between a 200 mph wind and only a 190 mph wind! Dorian is obviously a VERY dangerous hurricane.
• Also, over the last 12-18 hours, the computer model runs have come together very close to the NHC forecast track. For about 24 hours, there was one outlier model predicting a landfall around Jacksonville, but that has now returned to the fold.
• That said, Dorian will still present a major threat to central and northeast Florida as it moves north. It will also come very close, or come ashore somewhere in the Carolinas.

 

[jakenjess]

Thanks for the updates, Jim. Much appreciated.

 

[hmsTigger]

2 PM map -- not much different except that you can see the tropical storm force winds are arriving at West Palm Beach. When I checked a minute ago, they only had light winds, but you could see the feeder bands approaching on radar. West Palm is expecting 40-60 mph winds this evening and tomorrow.

View attachment 432157

There are a couple of minor changes I should mention:

• First, as expected, Dorian has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph and gusts to 190. I don't know about you, but I don't think I could tell much difference between a 200 mph wind and only a 190 mph wind! Dorian is obviously a VERY dangerous hurricane.
• Also, over the last 12-18 hours, the computer model runs have come together very close to the NHC forecast track. For about 24 hours, there was one outlier model predicting a landfall around Jacksonville, but that has now returned to the fold.
• That said, Dorian will still present a major threat to central and northeast Florida as it moves north. It will also come very close, or come ashore somewhere in the Carolinas.

Amazing reporting Jim. Are you a meteorologist? Have been following right along.
Thank you for your postings!

 

[JimMIA]

Amazing reporting Jim. Are you a meteorologist? Have been following right along.
Thank you for your postings!

No...worse. Florida native!

 

[Klismania]

Saw this earlier today and had to chuckle. Stay safe down there, folks!

 

[ScubaCat]

What do you think Wednesday afternoon looks like for flights into MCO? It looks like 50/50 to me but I thought I'd ask the resident expert as long as I'm here.

 

[JimMIA]

Saw this earlier today and had to chuckle. Stay safe down there, folks!
View attachment 432171

We don't use turn signals in Miami. We don't dare!

 

[JimMIA]

What do you think Wednesday afternoon looks like for flights into MCO? It looks like 50/50 to me but I thought I'd ask the resident expert as long as I'm here.

I'm not an expert on flights, and it might vary from airline to airline, but my guess is flights are unlikely. Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the roughest for Orlando unless the path or speed of the storm changes significantly.

 

[ScubaCat]

I'm not an expert on flights, and it might vary from airline to airline, but my guess is flights are unlikely. Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the roughest for Orlando unless the path or speed of the storm changes significantly.

Thanks. Southwest canceled everything on Tuesday but left everything open on Wednesday. I guess all I can do is wait and see.

 

[JimMIA]

I'm not going to waste bandwidth by posting the map because it hasn't changed, except for one thing.

The Hurricane Warning has now been extended north to Ponte Vedra Beach (Jacksonville area).

Dorian has been almost stationary since Noon today. Not quite, but almost. It has been literally inching along so slowly that the GPS coordinates don't change. However, when you look at the closeup of the satellite pictures you can see that it has moved a few miles. Where Dorian is, one degree of longitude is 68 miles, so it would have to move 7+ miles before the coordinates would change -- and it's been moving 1 mph or less.

The forecast discussion sounds like they don't really expect Dorian to start moving much until Tuesday afternoon, but the movement from then on appears to be a little more rapid northward than previously forecast. But of course that could change and the differences are not large enough to matter much.

 

[ScubaCat]

MCO is closing at 2am Tuesday now.

 

[JimMIA]

5 Dead, 13,000 homes destroyed
The Prime Minister of the Bahamas has announced that at least 5 people have been killed and 13,000 homes have been destroyed by Hurricane Dorian in the northern Bahamas.

To grasp these figures, we have to understand that it is VERY early in this disaster, the island of Grand Bahama is still being pounded by extreme winds and storm surge, and communications are poor at best.

We also need to understand that the total population of the Abacos and Grand Bahama is only 84,000 people. The destruction of 13,000 homes would be a huge disaster in Miami...with 3 million people. It's hard to imagine what that number means in a much smaller population.

Here's a link to one of the first stories coming out of the Bahamas. Unfortunately, there will be many more horror stories to come.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-slow-moving-record-setting-storm/2190101001/

 

[kaytieeldr]

MCO is closing at 2am Tuesday now.

Bit of humor there among the warning: stressing that MCO IS NOT A SHELTER. Because you just know some people are going to grab a piece of floor in this huge glass structure to wait out the weather.

 

[ScubaCat]

Bit of humor there among the warning: stressing that MCO IS NOT A SHELTER. Because you just know some people are going to grab a piece of floor in this huge glass structure to wait out the weather.

People trying to get home may think they'll just wait it out in the airport.

 

[ILoveMyDVC]

Bit of humor there among the warning: stressing that MCO IS NOT A SHELTER. Because you just know some people are going to grab a piece of floor in this huge glass structure to wait out the weather.

They have bathrooms, restaurants, a Disney store and you can watch the planes take off and land ...