Monthly Trends

[adam.r.thomas]

We are debating buying in resale to BLT but wanted to see if folks had a sense of whether there was a time of year that was better to tap in to the resale market - are things hotter now in relation to the spring/summer vacations and do prices dip as we get closer to December and the realization of annual dues? Or are the prices largely not defined based on a month-by-month trend line? And does anyone have a sense of how the pending reno at BLT will or will not impact prices? Thanks in advance!

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

ROFR is somewhat back, but so far for Poly and OKW. Resale is typically a good time to buy around January/dues invoicing/sticker shock going into effect. If you want BLT, I would think before the refurbishment is a good idea. As well, VGF had its blitz of direct and resale last year for the BPK addition, and all everyone is talking about is the new Poly tower. I think BLT is a good bet this year and will be a little depressed since it's overdue for its glow-up. The ROFR link on this site has great sale price information.

 

[AstroBlasters]

We are debating buying in resale to BLT but wanted to see if folks had a sense of whether there was a time of year that was better to tap in to the resale market - are things hotter now in relation to the spring/summer vacations and do prices dip as we get closer to December and the realization of annual dues? Or are the prices largely not defined based on a month-by-month trend line? And does anyone have a sense of how the pending reno at BLT will or will not impact prices? Thanks in advance!

If you find the right UY and number of points I’d pull the trigger as close $120 or less as you can. It’s a great value right now and likely to go up in price if they do a good job in the refurbishment.

 

[CastAStone]

DVC prices have a noticeable seasonal effect to them, in the manner that you laid out, with some caveats:

• It’s not like a massive effect; there is still significant overlap between the pricing range for a given resort in the summer and winter
• It’s not enough to overcome big picture market trends
• There’s still a pretty big number of contracts on the market right now for many (not all) resorts, so it’s entirely possible that this summer prices are lower than this past winter at those resorts

In other words, my advice for someone willing to be patient would be to ignore the market, figure out what you want to pay, and just offer that for contracts you want, regardless of the listed price, and if you lose out on 30 in a row,

 

[CastAStone]

And does anyone have a sense of how the pending reno at BLT will or will not impact prices

Renovations have only been meaningful when they have made a significant and unexpected change for the property.

SSR getting Murphy beds and plussing up to sleep 5 in a 1BR / 9 in a 2BR moved the needle a lot; but then that became what everyone expected for a baseline for future resorts, and as other resorts have gotten Murphy beds, it hasn’t changed anything on pricing.

I’d be surprised if anything at BLT changes prices, but that’s what makes it unexpected!

 

[Cfabar1]

I’d be surprised if anything at BLT changes prices, but that’s what makes it unexpected!

Me too, but I think we are in the minority….

 

[CastAStone]

Me too, but I think we are in the minority….

Hey Siri define “priced in”

 

[atthebeachclub]

Me too, but I think we are in the minority….

Hey Siri define “priced in”

I agree with both of you. I bet the prices stay similar, even after renovation. But still buying there for location, because I still think it is a comparative bargain for a Monorail resort if you want 1 bedrooms and above and/or sleep around points. Also less risk if you need to rent out your points one year. There is always going to be love for an easy walk to Magic Kingdom or any other popular resort.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Hey Siri define “priced in”

IMO, there is a very very low chance that a nice refurb is priced in at current BLT prices.

 

[atthebeachclub]

IMO, there is a very very low chance that a nice refurb is priced in at current BLT prices.

I don’t know if you are right, but I hope you are, and also hope for a nice refurb!

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

IMO, there is a very very low chance that a nice refurb is priced in at current BLT prices.

I think prices will trend up (soon), perhaps not by a lot, but people are being priced out of PVB and VGF as we speak and if even 25% of them decide to buy BLT at $125 or $130 instead of VGF at $160 or Poly at $180, I think even the most motivated sellers will be able to get $125-135.

In addition to renovation, I see 3 potential upward catalysts, which I am ranking from most to least likely):

• Relative competitive pricing (already happening, but could be even more significant if Poly Tower point chart is bad or direct incentives weak)
• Reports that Poly is extremely crowded post Tower opening—yes people love that Tiki Tiki Tiki Tiki Tiki Club but a lot aren’t going to love waiting a few trains for the monorail or not being able to get food quickly, etc., this could also impact VGF due to proximity and shared infrastructure. (I’d say chances of this are slightly better than 50/50, hard to imagine they’re adding sufficient infrastructure but maybe Disney will surprise us)
• ROFR comes back (I put this as less than 1/5– but it’s possible DVC decides to take a few in the $120s-140s right before the new Tower goes on sale, maybe they only want inexperienced buyers, but at least some folks will do a google search for “DVC sale” before pulling the trigger on a $50k purchase).

 

[Mr_Woodchuck]

It seems like we could be approaching a market bottom on these prices, but they seem quite low if you pull up the historical graph:
https://www.dvcrofr.com/pricing-trends

check on BLT All Hist, look at normalized pricing at the bottom.

We just got a CCV contract, brand new DVC members, and it sure would be grand if we bought at the bottom

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It seems like we could be approaching a market bottom on these prices, but they seem quite low if you pull up the historical graph:
https://www.dvcrofr.com/pricing-trends

check on BLT All Hist, look at normalized pricing at the bottom.

We just got a CCV contract, brand new DVC members, and it sure would be grand if we bought at the bottom

The thing is that they are “quite low” because DVC used to use ROFR to support pricing (which they flipped back to buyers of direct points)— but for nearly a year they had exited the ROFR market (maybe a handful through the spring/summer/fall 2023 period) lately there has been a tiny bit of ROFR activity at VGF and Poly and now suddenly a lot at Poly and a bit at OKW. Others here can explain why OKW is a unique situation (trying to extinguish 2042 deeds), but most other resorts haven’t seen ROFR activity since 2022…and there’s no real reason to believe it will come back.

Based on calculations I’ve seen others do here, BLT, CCV, and SSR are good values…and they may well increase (I still think that some DVC point prices will more likely increase in nominal dollars going forward) but DVC is building a LOT of new inventory without building much more park capacity, and they are putting limits on resale access, so without ROFR support, I would not be confident that the market is going to rebound much in real dollars. I don’t think anybody should be buying DVC in hopes of profiting at resale!

 

[Tatebeck]

I think the ROFRs for Poly and VGF will help keep the value of BLT from tanking too much, and my even make it rise up a bit. It looks better and better the lower the BLT price gets and the higher that Poly and VGF get

 

[RichVIII]

May 2024 pricing looks like Jan 2016 pricing (we were buying a few back in that range). Granted we are 8 years later but I saw our value rise and fall back to what we paid (not complaining). I don’t think the refurb will impact prices but I do think it will bring attention back to it as a great overall “value resort” plus decent SAPs. That could make people add to their list of considerations since they heard it was in bad shape (it’s not in my opinion). Timing prices is much like the stock market, it is hard to time ups and downs and agree with others, the swing aren’t that steep in general. Find something you want, buy it and start enjoying. I wish we purchased more back when we did (I could have also more easily rationalized that BCV contract).

 

[Cfabar1]

I don't think DVC is going to stay out of ROFR forever... I'd expect it to return at some point.

 

[MsChristy12]

If anyone were to ask me a little over a year ago, BLT was on the bottom of our list. It's quite interesting how one trip changed everything!

This is my take after buying 3 contracts in one year - there isn't really the "best time" to buy in the current market. To me, what matters most is finding the right contract you like that suits your (and your family) needs. If all of us tell you, "June is the best time of the year to buy!" But if you can't find one that you want, that's no use. So it really depends on the inventory of the resort you want to buy. With refurb, I don't think price will increase by much. Take BRV as example, what I saw from last year until now after their refurb, the price didn't really go up (maybe a few did but majority were steady) but there aren't as many listing available compared to other resorts, a lot less actually. Maybe many members were going to sell but they decided to keep it after the refurb? On top of that, if you're fixed on certain UY, that's even harder for you to find one especially it's a UY that have less inventory to begin with.

With the refurb, even if a lot of people hate it, there will always be people that also love it. So regardless, right after the refurb the resort will be a hot item for a bit. By then, even if the price doesn't go up, you'll be competing with more people that want to buy because now they like BLT, and you'll have less options. More options now because people are waiting to see the refurb to decide if they want it or not. Buy BLT! we'll be neighbors!

 

[Mr_Woodchuck]

Based on calculations I’ve seen others do here, BLT, CCV, and SSR are good values…and they may well increase (I still think that some DVC point prices will more likely increase in nominal dollars going forward) but DVC is building a LOT of new inventory without building much more park capacity, and they are putting limits on resale access, so without ROFR support, I would not be confident that the market is going to rebound much in real dollars. I don’t think anybody should be buying DVC in hopes of profiting at resale!

Not looking to make money, but it is a pretty big investment for us. For years and years I've been told to avoid timeshares. So before taking the plunge, wanted to make sure I wasn't going to lose money. So to dip my toe in the water, wanted to buy the cheapest points, with hopes to use them at all different DVC resorts over the next few years. We travel in summer where we always see availability at different ones, so that's basically how we jumped in with CCV. and our very first lowball offer was accepted, so didn't even get a chance to bid anymore ------yet. I'm sure once we get comfortable with how this all works, we'll be in the market for more.

 

[jshadd]

These charts should show you where DVC resale pricing has been over the last 5 years.
https://www.dvcfieldguide.com/historical-resale-pricing

Here's a more defined look comparing April 2024 resale pricing to prior years:
https://www.dvcfieldguide.com/dvcfieldguideindex/april2024

 

[Mr_Woodchuck]

These charts should show you where DVC resale pricing has been over the last 5 years.
https://www.dvcfieldguide.com/historical-resale-pricing

Here's a more defined look comparing April 2024 resale pricing to prior years:
https://www.dvcfieldguide.com/dvcfieldguideindex/april2024

Those graphs are great! kind of shows how the bubble that started in 2020 has burst.