RoFR back??

[kilik64]

From what I hear...the silent running joke is to believe 65% of what he says.

 

[Jlo85]

This guys idea for checking the Orange County records for ROFR is kind of clever. Not sure if anyone here has done that: https://dvcsearch.com/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-rofr-year-to-date-analysis-for-2023/

 

[Galactic Reversal]

This guys idea for checking the Orange County records for ROFR is kind of clever. Not sure if anyone here has done that: https://dvcsearch.com/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-rofr-year-to-date-analysis-for-2023/

Agreed! I want that analysis to be correct, but it seems like with the amount of taken contracts shown, @pkrieger2287 would've seen more of them come through his data.

 

[Jlo85]

Agreed! I want that analysis to be correct, but it seems like with the amount of taken contracts shown, @pkrieger2287 would've seen more of them come through his data.

From what I can tell, DVC Resale Market appears to have ~27% of the listings today - not sure if those analytics trend. I also see a Grand Floridan contract that Disney bought for $140/pt that was filed 9/7, which would maybe align with the $141/pt one from the ROFR report in August. It makes sense that Orange County filings would be delayed from the actual ROFR offer.

That said, I'm not sure how easy it is to mine this data or if this guy did it manually. I think you need to open each deed to confirm it wasn't a foreclosure. And even then, it's possible that some people sold back their deeds straight to Disney (i.e. it wasn't ROFR'd). I'm not sure what that process looks like, but I know people have done it. Also, I have no idea how you determine the points involved without finding and reconciling the original deed, which is a manual process.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

From what I can tell, DVC Resale Market appears to have ~27% of the listings today - not sure if those analytics trend. I also see a Grand Floridan contract that Disney bought for $140/pt that was filed 9/7, which would maybe align with the $141/pt one from the ROFR report in August. It makes sense that Orange County filings would be delayed from the actual ROFR offer.

That said, I'm not sure how easy it is to mine this data or if this guy did it manually. I think you need to open each deed to confirm it wasn't a foreclosure. And even then, it's possible that some people sold back their deeds straight to Disney (i.e. it wasn't ROFR'd). I'm not sure what that process looks like, but I know people have done it. Also, I have no idea how you determine the points involved without finding and reconciling the original deed, which is a manual process.

I doubt it's manual as their site is based around that data, but maybe. It looks like you could use python or similar to replicate the request that searches the database. Then you can get the list of links to the documents and there are packages for python that will let you search pdfs using optical character recognition to identify the words. It looks like that site might let you download csv's as well so it might be easier?

Just FYI, the owner of the site had this to say about it:

Hey friends - as the author of the post referenced on page 9 that I'm not allowed to quote because the anti-spam filter doesn't seem to like me, I'll add in with what I learned manually reviewing hundreds of contracts on the Orange County site. (Could a Mod ping me and help get that fixed so I can quote post 175 and 176?)

First things first: I do think that a more accurate description of the dataset is "Contracts where Disney was the Grantee, but it wasn't a foreclosure, and it wasn't a transfer in-lieu of foreclosure." and not necessarily that 100% of them are ROFR. There are definitely a couple in there that aren't ROFR, and are instead likely a buyer with buyer's remorse where Disney stepped in. (Looking at you, Doc 20230419978 at VGF and you Doc 20230005622 at RIV). But I do believe that most of them are ROFR until someone can give a better explanation for what's going on with them.

Foreclosures have a really distinct format. They are multi pages. There are newspaper filings of notice posted. Etc. Example of what a foreclosure looks like: Doc 20230380053

"Surrendered" Contracts when the owner gives it up in lieu of foreclosure also have a very distinct look to them. They are filed as "Warranty Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure". They look like this: Doc 20230381144

I didn't include any of those ("foreclosure" or "warranty deed transfer in lieu of foreclosure") in my dataset. All of the ones that I DID include look more like this: Doc 20230009656. This format looks just like a direct purchase agreement, but in reverse (where Disney is the grantee instead of the grantor). On most of them it even has the little palm tree and Mickey icons where input is needed just like everyone would recognize from when they bought direct.

So short of there being some other program that none of us have heard of where Disney proactively tries to directly buy contracts nearing distress, but AREN'T considered transfers in-lieu of foreclosure, I don't know what else they would be but ROFR.

I'm always eager to learn more! So if anyone has insight that I'm missing, I'm all ears!

Note: I tried to include direct links to the contracts referenced above, but the anti-spam filters prevented the reply :-( If you do a google search for orange county florida official records search you should be able to find the county website and search for the doc numbers I called out above.

 

[Jlo85]

I doubt it's manual as their site is based around that data, but maybe. It looks like you could use python or similar to replicate the request that searches the database. Then you can get the list of links to the documents and there are packages for python that will let you search pdfs using optical character recognition to identify the words. It looks like that site might let you download csv's as well so it might be easier?

Just FYI, the owner of the site had this to say about it:

That makes sense - thanks, should have read the thread! It does sound like this person did a pretty manual review/comparison, which is what I did. By this logic, the last recorded contracts that were ROFR'd were VGF (at $140/pt and BWV at $160/pt). Those prices may include closing costs and dues, which may explain the inflated BWV price. Those deeds were signed/notarized 8/31 and filed a week later. So if the county is working about a week out, likely no ROFR activity between 9/1 - and 9/5 (a week prior to today). Though that was a holiday weekend, so may somewhat explain the lack of activity.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It’s not *impossible* that Disney is attempting to buy back distressed contracts around market pricing to try to avoid headlines like about a wave of DVC contracts being forfeited/foreclosed—but the problem with that theory is that there doesn’t seem to be enough of those contracts to create the headline they would hypothetically be trying to avoid.

 

[pkrieger2287]

ROFR Alert - Grand Floridian 260pts @ $152pp!

 

[Cyberc1978]

ROFR Alert - Grand Floridian 260pts @ $152pp!

Curious do you know if it was from the new building or the old ones?

 

[pkrieger2287]

Curious do you know if it was from the new building or the old ones?

Original Villas at Disney's Grand Floridian Resort & Spa

 

[DanCali]

Curious do you know if it was from the new building or the old ones?

Original Villas at Disney's Grand Floridian Resort & Spa

Does it even matter? Aren't they completely interchangeable from a functional perspective like Kidani and Jambo House?

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Turns out we don't need Disney to ROFR to keep prices up, we're doing a good job of it ourselves.

I'll be as non specific as I can so as to avoid issues but mods let me know if this is frowned on.

A very small, extremely underpriced contract hit the market before. I'm talking underpriced for a giant contract much less a small one. I called within 10 minutes of the listing as I have alerts set and I was told that someone had already secured that contract by offering much higher. In fact I was willing to offer higher as well but not THAT much higher. The price I was told is basically the low end of what this contract usually goes for regularly. Maybe a little lower than usual for a small contract but way higher than the listing price. So basically this buyer had the same effect on pricing as ROFR would.

If you saw it you would know what I'm talking about. Honestly I thought there was a mistake in the listing.

 

[JackosinDIS]

ROFR Alert - Grand Floridian 260pts @ $152pp!

Curioser and curioser!

 

[ocdb8r1]

Turns out we don't need Disney to ROFR to keep prices up, we're doing a good job of it ourselves.

I'll be as non specific as I can so as to avoid issues but mods let me know if this is frowned on.

A very small, extremely underpriced contract hit the market before. I'm talking underpriced for a giant contract much less a small one. I called within 10 minutes of the listing as I have alerts set and I was told that someone had already secured that contract by offering much higher. In fact I was willing to offer higher as well but not THAT much higher. The price I was told is basically the low end of what this contract usually goes for regularly. Maybe a little lower than usual for a small contract but way higher than the listing price. So basically this buyer had the same effect on pricing as ROFR would.

If you saw it you would know what I'm talking about. Honestly I thought there was a mistake in the listing.

DO TELL. There's nothing in the rules about mentioning other contracts you saw and what an agent told you they sold for....there are some restrictions on linking, but not sharing information!

 

[DonMacGregor]

DO TELL. There's nothing in the rules about mentioning other contracts you saw and what an agent told you they sold for....there are some restrictions on linking, but not sharing information!

I wouldn't count on that...

 

[ocdb8r1]

I wouldn't count on that...

I don't get it. We have a "Rejected Offers" thread where people report rejected offers and often include what the agent told them it eventually sold for or the details of the "other offer received"...why would this be any different?

 

[DonMacGregor]

I don't get it. We have a "Rejected Offers" thread where people report rejected offers and often include what the agent told them it eventually sold for or the details of the "other offer received"...why would this be any different?

Who knows, but no matter how you try to couch things in the most obtuse language possible, it always seem like you either still broke the rules, or made it sound like you were trying to circumvent the rules when it comes to details on a specific contract. I agree there is a Rejected Offers thread, and it seems like this would fit in there, but I just avoid posting anything that even smells like it's somewhere in the same zip code as a rule violation.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Yeah I know things can get touchy sometimes so I try to be as vague as possible but this was listed a solid 20% below what you would think the low end of going prices would be. And when I say low end it's for large contracts. This was a small contract which usually commands the premium. So really I'd say this contract was listed about 30-35% cheaper than low end pricing based on contract size. If mods feel they want me to be more specific I will but I'll leave it at that for now. I was shocked to see it. I've never dialed a number so fast. Could've easily flipped it if you wanted no problem and made a decent profit.

 

[Jlo85]

I have been checking the Disney deeds daily since I have my own contract in ROFR right now. It appears that Disney bought back an international VGF contract at $115/point on September 4th. My guess is that someone surrendered that contract? Seems a bit low, even for international seller. Still surprised Disney would pay that much for a surrendered contract, though, so who knows.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

Yeah I know things can get touchy sometimes so I try to be as vague as possible but this was listed a solid 20% below what you would think the low end of going prices would be. And when I say low end it's for large contracts. This was a small contract which usually commands the premium. So really I'd say this contract was listed about 30-35% cheaper than low end pricing based on contract size. If mods feel they want me to be more specific I will but I'll leave it at that for now. I was shocked to see it. I've never dialed a number so fast. Could've easily flipped it if you wanted no problem and made a decent profit.

Was it BCV? Saw something very enticing about two days ago and fought the urge to pursue a contract we definitely did not need! Thankfully someone snatched it up quickly to end my temptation.