Disclaimer: I know there is a DVC specific subforum but our financials/goals more align with the people in here. That subforum would just tell me to buy.
Anyone on the FI/RE side looked into DVC? I had run a few analysis on it years ago and we decided to shelve the idea until the next downturn as prices seemed pretty inflated. Well... a pretty significant pullback happened and resale prices have started to soften. DVC prices lagged the market drop in 2008-2009 by a year or two so still a ways to go but much like investing in the market, we're putting plans in place regarding target resort(s) and price where we'd be interested so the decision isn't made on emotion.
Our target would be to buy enough points to cover a 1 week studio stay every 2 years (using banking/borrowing). That way we're not locked in to going every year if something happens. My calculations put AKL/SSR in the mid 130's per night and BLT/CCV in the $170-$180 per night range based on that strategy (using 2020 dues and current resale prices). I have the math on others as well but they're not as attractive.
Are we completely crazy to consider this? It goes counter to many biases we have in the FI world (timeshares, extravagance, etc) so I have some hesitation despite all numbers saying "this isn't a bad idea."
Note: We have done our couples trips to Disney World off site with hotel points. With kids entering the picture though we don't expect that to be as realistic and would prefer staying on site. I'm aware of the Swan/Dolphin hacks but that's quite point intensive and neither of us travel much for work anymore.
I've looked at it over the years and even if I could convince DH, I don't think it would hit the top of the priority list. He wouldn't agree to it, because it's not a great vacation for him and he doesn't love vacations in general. He has some major health issues that make standing in line, being around crowds, and heat in general more unpleasant than average.
My reasons are:
- Vacation time limits - when he was in the military, he got 30 days a year, so it was easier to justify. However, he usually took off a whole month when each baby was born, and he wasn't the one who needed to recover from childbirth. So we still couldn't necessarily pull off even every other year. Now, he has switched employers 3 times in the past 3 years and starts at their baseline for PTO every time. He gets about 3 weeks now, but can only flex his time so much to accommodate his own doctors appointments etc. If I worked also, then we would have to trade off for the kid's doctors appointments and illnesses too. I took the kids alone on our last Disney trip, because he couldn't work out enough time off. I cancelled a trip for our 10th anniversary (not for Disney) because he wanted to take off a week to spend with his brother over Christmas.
Unless neither of you are in contact with your families, or have a reasonable expectation that you'll be able to live super close to both sides indefinitely, I also wouldn't underestimate the amount of your vacation time they may start laying claim to after you have a child. Obviously, you can set boundaries.
- Interest changes - I love Disney and want my kids to go often, but often doesn't always mean every year, or even every other year. I want them to see other things too. My oldest is 9 now, and I don't expect his interest in Disney to stay around for more than another 5 years or so. He'll probably still come along happily enough, but I might want to accommodate him experiencing Universal or somewhere else. Obviously, we can stay at a hotel on the Disney property and still go to Universal, but we might not want to. My sister has been trying to convince me to venture down to Legoland for a few years now. It definitely is a better choice for her family, especially since she has two with Autism.
Once ODS hits middle school, it will be more difficult to justify pulling him out of school for vacation. We can't travel to Florida in the summer, unless we leave DH behind, so I can probably justify extending one of ODS' shorter school breaks to accommodate trips, until he's in high school. But, we haven't gotten there yet. DD's personality already makes me suspect that I won't be able to pull her out of school beyond elementary without a struggle. I haven't tried yet in elementary....we may not be able to even extend a break starting next year....
- The hotel isn't the only cost of a vacation - I have 4 kids, which makes me a little crazy, but even when I only had 2, it typically cost around $700-$1000 to fly our whole family to Disney on budget airlines. Even with credit card points, it becomes complicated to balance point use with out of pocket flight prices. Ticket prices keep getting higher too. We are fortunate enough to be able to utilize the military discounts...otherwise, I don't think we would have been able to go as much in the past. Even THOSE tickets are pushing $300/person now. For a family of 4, that's still $1200. Once you add in food, it becomes difficult to keep the cost down below $3000, even if you've gotten a good deal on a hotel.
- You can always rent points. It might not look as good a deal as owning, at first glance, but it certainly keeps your options open.
- We stay on property, because we love to be in the Disney bubble. But, as priorities change, we may shift to off, at least for a while. The kids aren't really a factor, except they are expensive. We typically have a vehicle with us anyway, so Disney transportation is nice but not a necessity. I did stay in the Swan with the kids for part of our last trip, but otherwise we've always had to transfer them out of the stroller to use Disney transportation or put them in the car. More often than not, they will fall asleep in transit back to the hotel for our afternoon break anyway, then their eyes will pop open as soon as we get back to the hotel. This hasn't kept us from taking breaks every day, but being super close to the hotel won't keep us from staying off property in the future either.
There is some benefit to being able to stay behind with the older kids while DH takes the younger ones back to the hotel. But, MOST of the hotels near Disney offer some amount of transportation to/from the parks, and if I have older kids with me, then I can grab a taxi anyway, since I won't have to worry about car seat safety.
- Finally, after my trip to
Disneyland last summer, I started toying with the idea of taking my kids on Mommy and Me trips to Disneyland one at a time. It's not something I've considered with WDW, but it seems much more doable with Disneyland. It's a smaller area to cover, so I can do long weekends. There are TONS of hotel options that are walkable to the gate. It's also easier to plan at the last minute. FPs are day of. Dining reservations aren't as difficult to get, and the counter service food is better anyway. Staying in a Disney-owned resort might be something I do once at Disneyland, just for the experience. But, I have no interest in doing it every time, like we've done at WDW for 10+ years.