The Rumor Tracking Thread

[MickeyMinnieMom]

While people might be right when speculating about budget cuts there is another side to consider. Its not just a matter of Disney paying money to buy Fox, its also the fact that Fox's revenues and earnings are now Disney's. So essentially, Disney is paying for Fox with its own earnings. Hopefully this is accretive to the total WDC earnings once the deal is done.

Theoretically should be, or this wouldn't be happening. The early post-M&A time can always see cuts, though, in service of a longer-term successful outcome. I haven't been paying super close attention, but I haven't heard specifics that point to cuts -- a lot of vague talk, which seems pretty typical for these things.

 

[danikoski]

I think there were also budget issues with the WDW park upgrades when the monorail jumped to the top of the list of priorities. Although, hopefully cutting the theater alleviated some of that.

There may be issues with the new lands that are also pushing some things back like UK ride and Brazil pavilion that we don't know about as well.

Then factor in the Fox deal and possibly lower attendance (based on wait times and the number of "deals" pushed), there definitely could be things cut.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Then factor in the Fox deal and possibly lower attendance (based on wait times and the number of "deals" pushed), there definitely could be things cut.

What does this refer to?

 

[TheMaxRebo]

What does this refer to?

There have been more offers out there for summer promotions and new things for AP holders and pushing for the fall. Appears attendance at the parks is pretty light overall for summer time

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

There have been more offers out there for summer promotions and new things for AP holders and pushing for the fall. Appears attendance at the parks is pretty light overall for summer time

Saw those offers, but also saw them extend hours throughout our Aug trip -- which they did not do last year. Seems to contradict lower summer crowds assumption. Guess I'll have my anecdotal info to add soon!

ETA: wrt to attendance & cuts, with SWGE on the horizon, I feel like there’s less to be worried about, personally.

 

[rteetz]

Saw those offers, but also saw them extend hours throughout our Aug trip -- which they did not do last year. Seems to contradict lower summer crowds assumption. Guess I'll have my anecdotal info to add soon!

I know at least up until Toy Story opened summer attendance was down.

 

[danikoski]

Saw those offers, but also saw them extend hours throughout our Aug trip -- which they did not do last year. Seems to contradict lower summer crowds assumption. Guess I'll have my anecdotal info to add soon!

ETA: wrt to attendance & cuts, with SWGE on the horizon, I feel like there’s less to be worried about, personally.

SWGE is probably part of the problem for low attendance this summer and possibly next summer. There may be many families waiting until SWGE opens to do their trips, especially those who do once in a lifetime or every 5 or so years.

But once it opens, you're right, crowd attemdanca shouldn't be an issue.

 

[Phicinfan]

SWGE is probably part of the problem for low attendance this summer and possibly next summer. There may be many families waiting until SWGE opens to do their trips, especially those who do once in a lifetime or every 5 or so years.

But once it opens, you're right, crowd attemdanca shouldn't be an issue.

I think its a combination....
cost is high
SWGE, Mickey ride, TSL(yeah just opened but...), Tron and 50th anniversary...I think folks going are waiting for all that, OR some may not be there til after all that, to avoid the crowds. We are thinking that way. Wait for 2022 or later til some of the higher crowds move down.

 

[John Gallagher]

It's

I think its a combination....
cost is high
SWGE, Mickey ride, TSL(yeah just opened but...), Tron and 50th anniversary...I think folks going are waiting for all that, OR some may not be there til after all that, to avoid the crowds. We are thinking that way. Wait for 2022 or later til some of the higher crowds move down.

It's funny though because it hasn't seemed like the crowds are down, just spread out more. I think with the addition of two new lands in the last two years we have seen more guests in parks other than MK. Once the 50th hits and Tron opens I think we'll see MK become the center of attention a little bit, but right now it's sharing the spotlight for the first time in a while.

 

[danikoski]

It's funny though because it hasn't seemed like the crowds are down, just spread out more. I think with the addition of two new lands in the last two years we have seen more guests in parks other than MK. Once the 50th hits and Tron opens I think we'll see MK become the center of attention a little bit, but right now it's sharing the spotlight for the first time in a while.

This is true to. As they add lands and rides (or open new rides in place of rides that have been closed), WDW capacity increases from what it has been over the last several years. Even with Tron and the 50th, crowds should still be pretty spread out. By the 50th, SWGE will be open and Mickey's Railroad, and at Epcot you'll have Rat and Guardians, plus possibly a ride in the UK.

 

[The Pho]

This is true to. As they add lands and rides (or open new rides in place of rides that have been closed), WDW capacity increases from what it has been over the last several years. Even with Tron and the 50th, crowds should still be pretty spread out. By the 50th, SWGE will be open and Mickey's Railroad, and at Epcot you'll have Rat and Guardians, plus possibly a ride in the UK.

That's only taking into account new rides. They've removed rides to put most of these additions in. And a lot of what closed had large capacity. Tron and Ratatouille will help in that respect. But with the multiple high draw areas being split among other parks than Magic Kingdom in the near future, that'll certainly help spread crowds.

Edit: completely overlooked your parentheses there...

 

[intertile]

While people might be right when speculating about budget cuts there is another side to consider. Its not just a matter of Disney paying money to buy Fox, its also the fact that Fox's revenues and earnings are now Disney's. So essentially, Disney is paying for Fox with its own earnings. Hopefully this is accretive to the total WDC earnings once the deal is done.

This is true. It's also good to note that 50% of the deal is in stock, so 21cf shares will be valued at $38. If a shareholder holds 1000 shares, 500 wod turn into approximately 154 disney shares and 500 would turn into cash. This is an important aspect, because disney will assuredly borrow money for the 50% cash, use the proceeds from the RSN to lower the note, and basically pay the note back with the $1.4b that 21cf makes.

I don't think the parks budgets will be much effected in the long run. It might delay some projects, but I don't think the delays were are seeing has anything to do with the fox deal.

 

[Phicinfan]

This is true. It's also good to note that 50% of the deal is in stock, so 21cf shares will be valued at $38. If a shareholder holds 1000 shares, 500 wod turn into approximately 154 disney shares and 500 would turn into cash. This is an important aspect, because disney will assuredly borrow money for the 50% cash, use the proceeds from the RSN to lower the note, and basically pay the note back with the $1.4b that 21cf makes.

I don't think the parks budgets will be much effected in the long run. It might delay some projects, but I don't think the delays were are seeing has anything to do with the fox deal.

Going to disagree with you here. Per many insiders the Fox deal is AlREADY effecting plans. Just not clear what all that effect is. I also think Disney is hedging, which is why we have not had confirmation on Brazil, UK ride, other updates at MK and such. In case they decide to pull them. They had some major egg in face for the killing of the announced theater in MK.

 

[John Gallagher]

Going to disagree with you here. Per many insiders the Fox deal is AlREADY effecting plans. Just not clear what all that effect is. I also think Disney is hedging, which is why we have not had confirmation on Brazil, UK ride, other updates at MK and such. In case they decide to pull them. They had some major egg in face for the killing of the announced theater in MK.

When looking at rumors (and yes rumors are not always true) it seems like there could be a lot more Disney has planned that has yet to be confirmed or even rumored. You have to look at how important these next few years are to the company as far as playing catchup for the lack of additions since the mid 2000s (not including the last two years). If all goes according to plan, I think potential budget cuts now could be preparing Disney for a huge movement in the future, it's just a matter of when they are at the point that they can execute on more plans.

 

[intertile]

When looking at rumors (and yes rumors are not always true) it seems like there could be a lot more Disney has planned that has yet to be confirmed or even rumored. You have to look at how important these next few years are to the company as far as playing catchup for the lack of additions since the mid 2000s (not including the last two years). If all goes according to plan, I think potential budget cuts now could be preparing Disney for a huge movement in the future, it's just a matter of when they are at the point that they can execute on more plans.

There is also the new Universal expansion coming...Disney can't stop upgrading the parks or they will lose market share. That's why I think that we may see a slight stall or slowdown, but longterm not so much.

 

[The Pho]

There is also the new Universal expansion coming...Disney can't stop upgrading the parks or they will lose market share. That's why I think that we may see a slight stall or slowdown, but longterm not so much.

I think most of the concerns for budget cuts are related to what will be cut for the 50th, understanding that down the line it will all level back out. It should be a huge celebration, and they clearly had some real big plans for it, and a lot of which is still not showing movement (UK ride/ new country) or has already been cut (Magic Kingdom Theater).

 

[Phicinfan]

There is also the new Universal expansion coming...Disney can't stop upgrading the parks or they will lose market share. That's why I think that we may see a slight stall or slowdown, but longterm not so much.

Except by most insiders, Disney doesn't feel the need to react to Universal.

I don't doubt they plan more for the park, but I seriously doubt they will continue to update and expand at the rate they are doing now prior to the 50th.

I guess its wait and see.

 

[mikegood2]

Going to disagree with you here. Per many insiders the Fox deal is AlREADY effecting plans. Just not clear what all that effect is. I also think Disney is hedging, which is why we have not had confirmation on Brazil, UK ride, other updates at MK and such. In case they decide to pull them. They had some major egg in face for the killing of the announced theater in MK.

Agree, it's too bad, but I don’t see how the Fox deal wouldn't affect plans. Hopefully nothing major, but guess we will have to wait and see.

While budget is likely a big part of Disney possibly hedging on some of their plans, is it also possible that they could be re-evaluating some plans because of some of the potential IP they are acquiring Fox deal? Or since it’s likely going to take a year or two for the deal to be finalized, would that IP be something that would be considered for upcoming additions?

 

[Phicinfan]

Agree, it's too bad, but I don’t see how the Fox deal wouldn't affect plans. Hopefully nothing major, but guess we will have to wait and see.

While budget is likely a big part of Disney possibly hedging on some of their plans, is it also possible that they could be re-evaluating some plans because of some of the potential IP they are acquiring Fox deal? Or since it’s likely going to take a year or two for the deal to be finalized, would that AP be something that would be considered for upcoming additions?

That is a very good question, and I don't really know. It could make sense though, as alot of these current plans had to have been started before all the moves to acquire Fox and those IPs. I will add I am not saying alot will be cut either, to date per many insiders we are still to get UK ride, Brazil and some major sprucing in MK for 50th. I am curious if the spine redo in EPCOT is still on the table or will be reduced and whatever is planned for WoL building.

 

[John Gallagher]

That is a very good question, and I don't really know. It could make sense though, as alot of these current plans had to have been started before all the moves to acquire Fox and those IPs. I will add I am not saying alot will be cut either, to date per many insiders we are still to get UK ride, Brazil and some major sprucing in MK for 50th. I am curious if the spine redo in EPCOT is still on the table or will be reduced and whatever is planned for WoL building.

I don't think the anything else is going to be cut except potentially Coco, but the IPs must play a role in some way at least to evaluate all plans and see if there's anything that could work from this deal. I'm not too worried about the amount of projects that may be cut, but the detail that could be lost in some of those projects. It would be a shame if the spine took a hit because of the budget though as the revamped Future World concept art looks really visually appealing.