The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[tink2424]

This is going to sound snarky, but I truly do not intend it that way. I find it fascinating how there seem to be so many severe reactions after the vaccine among the population that seems to be the most resistant to the vaccine.

Conversely, I know of no one even remotely connected to me who has had anything beyond the standard common side effects. There have only been a handful of people in the entire large metro area where I live who have had to be hospitalized for anything vaccine-related. And yet almost every person I’m aware of who is resistant to the vaccine knows someone with a horrible side effect.

Im wondering if there’s a psychosomatic component to some of those reactions because they’re expecting something bad to happen.

Most of what's going on with VAERS is completely coincidental. No connection at all to the vaccine. They're tracking trends there to research them if the data is there to do so, but in most cases there is absolutely no direct correlation to the vaccine itself. Anyone can report anything there, so take it with a grain of salt.

Directly from the VAERS website:

"
VAERS accepts and analyzes reports of possible health problems—also called “adverse events”—after vaccination. As an early warning system, VAERS cannot prove that a vaccine caused a problem. Specifically, a report to VAERS does not mean that a vaccine caused an adverse event. But VAERS can give CDC and FDA important information. If it looks as though a vaccine might be causing a problem, FDA and CDC will investigate further and take action if needed.
Anyone can submit a report to VAERS — healthcare professionals, vaccine manufacturers, and the general public. VAERS welcomes all reports, regardless of seriousness, and regardless of how likely the vaccine may have been to have caused the adverse event."

Could be there was an underlying issue that the vaccine didn't cause and it was purely coincidental the vaccine was given right before. Could be the vaccine started an immune response as expected and that caused issues. So if the vaccine didn't cause the problem, something was going to soon enough. Correlation is not causation.

I don't think most of you understand that in clinical trials ALL events are reported and that is how they find which events ARE RELATED to the drug/vaccine. It is important that ALL events are reported to VAERS but we know that only about 5% or less ever get reported. So while technically true that just because an event is reported to VAERS doesn't mean it was definitely caused by the vaccine it also doesn't mean that it wasn't. If we would have ALL events reported then people would see that there is a significant portion of the population that are harmed by vaccines.

Additionally most of the anti-vax crowd has had someone they know harmed by a vaccine and then they dig in and realize all of the information we are NOT told about vaccines. That is why choice is so important and it is why we should not mandate vaccines for anything (school, vacations, work). Because if that person harmed is you or your loved one then you are left with the lifetime of sorrow.

I work in marketing and follow a lot of marketing industry people. Yesterday I saw that a PR firm is offering big money to high profile bloggers and influencers, for an anti vax campaign. Like any industry, there are people who have no problem promoting something if it pays big money. It does not surprise me that PR companies have anti vax clients, and are using celebs and high profile bloggers and influencers for their campaigns. Its the trickle down marketing process, get the message out there and suddenly its being cited as a credible source and it gets into mainstream though process.

It's a free market so they should be able to do what they want. There is information that is not getting out there about all vaccines, not just the COVID vaccine. No one should be afraid of all the information coming out if the vaccines are as safe as some claim.

Now to be clear for a majority of people they are able to handle the vaccines but not everyone is. And with millions upon millions taking vaccines every year that small group harmed becomes a large number and that should NOT be acceptable. We must find a way to identify those who will have bad outcomes before vaccines are forced on them. This should be an area of study but no one will touch it since vaccines are a hot button issue and they will try to destroy peoples careers.

 

[sethschroeder]

I thought I read on another thread that Washington State has a rule that they would only allow cruise ships over 250 passengers if everyone was vaccinated. So if DCL does sail to Alaska out of Seattle, they will need to require vaccinations, I believe.

Except that is not DCL requiring it then. Do you have a link to that requirement as I can't find anything anywhere about WA state requirement around vaccination. Wondering if it has other options for individuals or its vaccination no other option.

Edit:
I found it and vaccination is required for 95% of all passengers. While 5% of the passengers can be unvaccinated. I am reading it as the 5% includes kids. They are accepting the paper vaccination cards it seems as well.

I am interested to see how Disney handles it because they are heavy in kids especially for summer cruises. I almost think this policy puts a strike against Disney actually cruising out of Washington unless they can get an exception to exclude children under 16 from the 95% rule.

https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/COVID19 Cruise Guidance.pdf

 

[charmed59]

I’m not sure about DCL, as it is heavy on young families, but industry wide in 2018 only 9% of cruisers were 12 or under. Another 6% were 13-19. Over 50% were 50+, the most common age group being those 60-69. In that older demographic, the percentage of those vaccinated is around 70%.

I’ve heard many say they are getting vaccinated to cruise. I suspect cruises other than Disney can fill to capacity for the remainder of the year with dedicated cruisers that are vaccinated. Disney will definitely have to do their research to see if they could fill their ships.

 

[Intr3pid]

I’m not sure about DCL, as it is heavy on young families, but industry wide in 2018 only 9% of cruisers were 12 or under. Another 6% were 13-19. Over 50% were 50+, the most common age group being those 60-69. In that older demographic, the percentage of those vaccinated is around 70%.

I’ve heard many say they are getting vaccinated to cruise. I suspect cruises other than Disney can fill to capacity for the remainder of the year with dedicated cruisers that are vaccinated. Disney will definitely have to do their research to see if they could fill their ships.

Generally agreed, but most cruise lines target load factors of just over 100%, assuming two guests per cabin. DCL has a higher target. Their ships carry higher operating costs due to all the additional activities, trained staff, and theming on board.

In the short term, a half-revenue ship is still more profitable than the one parked with skeleton crew. Longer than a year though, it won't provide nearly the margins they need. Even with the same load factors as other cruise lines.

 

[CamColt]

Maggie's Mom took the words out of my mouth. Enough with the politics!

We would like to keep this thread going to have 1 place where the vaccine, in relation to cruising, can be discussed. Turning it into a political discussion will not be tolerated. Thanks in advance for keeping it on track!

 

[Sykes]

This article summarizes two new studies, one of which has already been referenced here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/26/health/coronavirus-immunity-vaccines.html
A couple of the key findings (my summary of the article)
- COVID infection + the vaccine provides the best immunity. There is a lot of evidence that this combination may not require any boosters in the future.
- COVID infection without the vaccine produces a waning immune response, especially against other variants, but it may not be enough to be a big problem. "A year after infection, neutralizing activity in the participants who had not been vaccinated was lower against all forms of the virus, with the greatest loss seen against the variant first identified in South Africa. Vaccination significantly amplified antibody levels, confirming results from other studies; the shots also ramped up the body’s neutralizing ability by about 50-fold."
- Protection from the vaccine alone (without COVID infection) appears to be very effective and long-lived against currently known variants, but because the immune memory is different than that of infection it may be less resilient against new variants in the future. It is possible--but not a foregone conclusion--that we may need boosters to address new variants in the future.

All in all, it's pretty good news all-around. So far there is no sign of significant waning immunity. It's likely that COVID infection produces a robust immune response, although there's still a lot of data that says that those with a previous infection should still get immunized (in the bone marrow study, 21% of participants who previously had COVID had no detectable memory B cells, although it's a very small study [n=19]).

 

[jrapps]

The CDC posted new guidance today (5/26) specifically for vaccinated travelers, and cruises with 95% vaccinated passengers). There are major changes in here.

Masks

• Cruise ship operators, at their discretion, may advise passengers and crew that—if they are fully vaccinated—they may gather or conduct activities outdoors, including engaging in extended meal service or beverage consumption, without wearing a mask.
• Cruise ship operators, at their discretion, may advise crew who are fully vaccinated that they do not have to wear a mask or maintain physical distance in areas of the ship that are inaccessible to passengers.
• Cruise ship operators, at their discretion, may designate areas as only accessible to fully vaccinated passengers and crew where masks and physical distancing are not required (e.g., casinos; bars; spas; entertainment venues; and dining areas, including self-serve buffets).
• For ships with at least 95% of crew and 95% of passengers fully vaccinated, cruise ship operators, at their discretion, may advise passengers and crew that they do not have to wear a mask or maintain physical distance in any areas.

Also they changed the Social Distancing and food services rules. All social distancing requirements (such as spacing out dining tables, limiting people in elevators, etc) are now just RECOMMENDED if a sailing is 95% vaccinated. Same for all food services, no layout changes or physical barrier required and Buffets can resume.

 

[orum]

This is fantastic news for cruising overall. Thank you for sharing as articles like these make me more hopeful that my cruise will go. We just need Disney to weigh in on what they are going to do (and hopefully Florida and the CDC working out their differences in mediation.)

 

[mevelandry]

The CDC posted new guidance today (5/26) specifically for vaccinated travelers, and cruises with 95% vaccinated passengers). There are major changes in here.

Masks

• Cruise ship operators, at their discretion, may advise passengers and crew that—if they are fully vaccinated—they may gather or conduct activities outdoors, including engaging in extended meal service or beverage consumption, without wearing a mask.
• Cruise ship operators, at their discretion, may advise crew who are fully vaccinated that they do not have to wear a mask or maintain physical distance in areas of the ship that are inaccessible to passengers.
• Cruise ship operators, at their discretion, may designate areas as only accessible to fully vaccinated passengers and crew where masks and physical distancing are not required (e.g., casinos; bars; spas; entertainment venues; and dining areas, including self-serve buffets).
• For ships with at least 95% of crew and 95% of passengers fully vaccinated, cruise ship operators, at their discretion, may advise passengers and crew that they do not have to wear a mask or maintain physical distance in any areas.

Also they changed the Social Distancing and food services rules. All social distancing requirements (such as spacing out dining tables, limiting people in elevators, etc) are now just RECOMMENDED if a sailing is 95% vaccinated. Same for all food services, no layout changes or physical barrier required and Buffets can resume.

I was so happy with the idea of distance between tables in the dining room and being served at the buffet!

 

[jerry557]

If boosters are necessary to effectively manage the disease then vaccine requirements for cruise ships will be more important, not less. More COVID outbreaks on board cruise ships would be catastrophic. The revenue contribution from the ~35% of vaccine hesitant people would be entirely negated by a handful of canceled cruises (or canceled seasons because a ship has an extended quarantine) because of outbreaks—the industry would be much better off slimming down, cutting capacity, and profitably catering exclusively to the vaccinated crowd if that were the case. Cruise ships are fundamentally different than airlines in that it is 4,000 people in very close quarters for days or weeks at a time for entirely leisure reasons, not 300 people for a max of ~18 hours that may have an essential reason to be there so it makes sense for them to behave differently.

I very much hope that the disease trajectory continues in a way that makes vaccine requirements totally obsolete for cruises. I actually think that there is a solid chance that we’ll get there. But that’s mutually exclusive to the scenario you describe where boosters are necessary to effectively manage the disease.

I think the cruise lines have already downsized. I know Carnival and NCL have already scrapped some ships ahead of schedule and have put some new ship orders on hold. That's already happened. So there will be less total voyages regardless. The industry has shrank. And it will take many years before they actually pay off loans and start getting out of the red.

Airlines don't transport people in the same way. A plane flying over the continental US can land in many places fairly quickly if there is a passenger emergency. Cruise ships have a much tougher time with that. If a COVID outbreak was traced to an aircraft, it can be taken out of service and cleaned thoroughly within hours. The same cannot be said for a large cruise ship.

According to CLIA, the majority of Americans have never been on a cruise (somewhere in the range of 75%), so if the 50% are in groups that have never cruised, and have no desire to cruise, that unvaccinated group may not be of concern to cruise lines.

Only 37% of Americans carry a passport. That's the typical average. So that's roughly the number that would go on international trips during a 10-year period that a passport is valid. Now, how many of those 37% are fully vaccinated would give you an idea of how much the market shrank.

As I have said, I expect demand to be high in the short term. But a year or so into it once avid cruisers have had their fill, bookings won't be as heavy....especially if the prices continue to stay as high as they are.

 

[atricks]

Celebrity edge just got CDC approval to sail FROM Florida (Ft. Lauderdale/Port Everglades) on June 26th. They are going the full vaccine requirement route to avoid the test cruise. So far, it looks to be the first cruise out of the US to restart.

 

[Sykes]

Sounds like Celebrity is probably going with the strategy of requiring proof of vaccine and waiting for Florida to try to stop it. The first sailing will happen before the law comes into effect, but later ones will definitely conflict.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article251706998.html

The restart plans clash with a law recently passed by the Republican-controlled state legislature and promoted by Governor Ron DeSantis that bars businesses, schools and government entities across Florida from asking anyone to provide proof of a COVID-19 vaccination. Under the new law, which takes effect on July 1, businesses can be fined up to $5,000 per violation. The only exemption in the law is for licensed healthcare providers.

“We’ve been very clear, the law is clear in Florida,” said Taryn Fenske, spokesperson for the governor. “You can’t mandate vaccine passports. We are interested to see how the CDC works with them so that they don’t get these exorbitant fines.”

Celebrity plans to restart its cruises days before the new law takes effect. Lomax said the logistics of its vaccine requirement are still being worked out.

“We are working with the Governor’s office to align on the path forward,” she said via email.

 

[HiStitch626]

Crystal is sailing from Nassau this summer.

 

[Maggie'sMom]

Only 37% of Americans carry a passport. That's the typical average. So that's roughly the number that would go on international trips during a 10-year period that a passport is valid. Now, how many of those 37% are fully vaccinated would give you an idea of how much the market shrank.

I always cruise with a passport and think anyone that cruises in the age of COVID without a passport is taking a huge risk, but a lot of people sail US closed loop cruises without one.

Yes, the market has shrunk, but it will rebound, and rebound quickly, as long as cruises don't experience large COVID outbreaks onboard. The cruiselines know their future existence is on the line if they aren't super careful with the restart. That's why I think many lines will restart with fully vaccinated cruises. They can't afford the bad press that will come from a large scale outbreak.

 

[jrapps]

Sounds like Celebrity is probably going with the strategy of requiring proof of vaccine and waiting for Florida to try to stop it. The first sailing will happen before the law comes into effect, but later ones will definitely conflict.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article251706998.html

I always said, one line would step up and try. I don't see the state suing them. Optics is everything to a politician.

DCL will wait to see how it all plays out, but if this works I can see DCL requiring vaccines for 12+

 

[jerry557]

I always cruise with a passport and think anyone that cruises in the age of COVID without a passport is taking a huge risk, but a lot of people sail US closed loop cruises without one.

Yes, the market has shrunk, but it will rebound, and rebound quickly, as long as cruises don't experience large COVID outbreaks onboard. The cruiselines know their future existence is on the line if they aren't super careful with the restart. That's why I think many lines will restart with fully vaccinated cruises. They can't afford the bad press that will come from a large scale outbreak.

They won't get anyone new. There are not going to be many first-time cruisers for quite some time. People who have never cruised before aren't sitting home right now itching to go on their first cruise vacation at sky high prices in the midst of a pandemic. So the cruise industry is banking on their existing fan base to go out, get vaccinated, and go on multiple trips. If that doesn't happen, the industry won't grow.

A little off topic, but I also think the overall economy is WAY overdue for a breather. When the government COVID stimulus money eases up (it has to at some point or else we will see massive inflation), we could see a downturn within the next few years. If it happens, the cruise lines will be hit with a double-whammy (pandemic followed by a recession). I would expect some bankruptcies in the industry at that point. I admit I have a pessimistic view, but it's how I interpret the trends. I had the same gut feeling in 2006 that I have today.

 

[DCLMP]

Royal is starting their un-vaxxed cruise trials. It looks like Carnival might be going the un-vaxxed route at least out of Florida. A lot of discussion on cruise critics after the safer to sail posting on the website, but then John Heald said final protocols will be out by May 31. So who knows. I only bring up Carnival because they communicate (sometimes out both sides of their mouth) and Disney does not.

It does look like masks will be required if they do the hybrid cruise. I said a few pages back that I think there might be different protocols for different states. I still think that could be the case. It's what we've seen throughout the pandemic. The difference between DL and WDW is the perfect example.

People with upcoming cruises are getting impatient. They want to know whether to click on the cancel button or the Pay your cruise button. The vaccinated don't want to wear masks and the unvaxxed don't want to get the vax. Cruise lines just want to sail and keep all their customers.

 

[DCLMP]

I don't think most of you understand that in clinical trials ALL events are reported and that is how they find which events ARE RELATED to the drug/vaccine. It is important that ALL events are reported to VAERS but we know that only about 5% or less ever get reported. So while technically true that just because an event is reported to VAERS doesn't mean it was definitely caused by the vaccine it also doesn't mean that it wasn't. If we would have ALL events reported then people would see that there is a significant portion of the population that are harmed by vaccines.

Additionally most of the anti-vax crowd has had someone they know harmed by a vaccine and then they dig in and realize all of the information we are NOT told about vaccines. That is why choice is so important and it is why we should not mandate vaccines for anything (school, vacations, work). Because if that person harmed is you or your loved one then you are left with the lifetime of sorrow.


It's a free market so they should be able to do what they want. There is information that is not getting out there about all vaccines, not just the COVID vaccine. No one should be afraid of all the information coming out if the vaccines are as safe as some claim.

Now to be clear for a majority of people they are able to handle the vaccines but not everyone is. And with millions upon millions taking vaccines every year that small group harmed becomes a large number and that should NOT be acceptable. We must find a way to identify those who will have bad outcomes before vaccines are forced on them. This should be an area of study but no one will touch it since vaccines are a hot button issue and they will try to destroy peoples careers.

My co-worker that had a bad reaction had the Moderna vaccine. She also has Graves disease. She will not be getting the second shot. I have a friend that had a covid and her only symptom was Covid toes. Peripheral vascular disease and blood clots run in her family so she's not getting the vaccine. I can't blame her since the vaccine has been linked to blood clots. I have another friend who just about died from a flu shot(anaphalaxis).

If you have any doubt or any concerning co-morbidities the decision to get the vaccine or not should be a conversation between you and your physician. It shouldn't be a cruise line or people on a travel forum telling you to do so.

 

[n2mm]

People with upcoming cruises are getting impatient. They want to know whether to click on the cancel button or the Pay your cruise button. The vaccinated don't want to wear masks and the unvaxxed don't want to get the vax. Cruise lines just want to sail and keep all their customers.

BINGO! This is exactly how we feel. All vaccinated in our family from age 13 to 80 (with a variety of health issues, I.e., blood clot issues, recent cancer survivor, immune compromised disease, prior covid survivors— all met with doctors prior to getting vaccinated). we have Cruises booked (4 of them in 2022 with 2 cabins each cruise). We are getting impatient. We are up to 8 cruises that have canceled or been moved now. We don’t want to wear mask because we are sailing with unvaccinated guest, nor do we want to be denied port access if unvaccinated cruisers get covid and we don’t want our cruise cut short for the same reason. We did our part, discussed the vaccine with our doctors and got our shots, now waiting for dcl to give us some guidelines. If vaccines are required, we will go. If they are not, we will cancel. Regardless the outcome, we just want to move forward.

 

[HiStitch626]

Peripheral vascular disease and blood clots run in her family so she's not getting the vaccine. I can't blame her since the vaccine has been linked to blood clots.

Not for Moderna or Pfizer, and the Aztrazeneca vaccine is not being used in the US.