To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[Jules76126]

Looks like a fun day at the beach. I am always amazed how big the lakes are in the Midwest. A lot of the lakes around here are small enough that you can see houses on the other side. Sorry to hear about your dog. Sick pets are the worst - hoping that she gets better soon.

 

[TheHamm]

The carousel in St. Joe + splash pad +beach makes it an awesomely exhausting day for adults and kids alike! No wonder you felt rough after that run. In a not creepy way: is there a Moana on the other side of G's dress in the ride photo? If so, we also have a set of photos in the dress with windblown hair!

 

[DopeyBadger]

I’m so sorry about Lucy.

Thanks.

I can’t believe you are having those T+D in Wisconsin!

It has been an insane summer here. And they keep saying it's going to break, but I just haven't seen it happen yet.

Looks like a fun day at the beach. I am always amazed how big the lakes are in the Midwest. A lot of the lakes around here are small enough that you can see houses on the other side.

It was fun! Can't remember the last time I was at a legit beach. Took us nearly 4 hours just to drive around the bottom edge of Lake Michigan. It's crazy big! We've got smaller ones too, but nothing around Madison that I would actually get in.

Sorry to hear about your dog. Sick pets are the worst - hoping that she gets better soon.

Thanks. Fingers crossed.

The carousel in St. Joe + splash pad +beach makes it an awesomely exhausting day for adults and kids alike! No wonder you felt rough after that run.

Agreed!

In a not creepy way: is there a Moana on the other side of G's dress in the ride photo? If so, we also have a set of photos in the dress with windblown hair!

Yes there is. It's the Moana UV swim cover-up dress. Glad to see someone else has found it too!

 

[TheHamm]

It was fun! Can't remember the last time I was at a legit beach. Took us nearly 4 hours just to drive around the bottom edge of Lake Michigan. It's crazy big! We've got smaller ones too, but nothing around Madison that I would actually get in.

we went to visit friends who live near BB Clarke beach. I was a bit iffy on it, but walking distance made it a win. Your comment makes me think I should have stuck with my gut feeling. We then went other places and I was surprised they were all about the same. If you have any suggestions for the preschool set around the area, I could use the tips for next summer! I did loose my kids in the children's museum for an entire day but could use a bit more outdoor time (winter is always coming!).

 

[DopeyBadger]

we went to visit friends who live near BB Clarke beach. I was a bit iffy on it, but walking distance made it a win. Your comment makes me think I should have stuck with my gut feeling. We then went other places and I was surprised they were all about the same. If you have any suggestions for the preschool set around the area, I could use the tips for next summer! I did loose my kids in the children's museum for an entire day but could use a bit more outdoor time (winter is always coming!).

When the time gets closer just let me know and we can come up with some stuff. Madison always has so much going on different each weekend.

 

[DopeyBadger]

10 days until the Madison Mini Half Marathon!

Weather update!



8/9/18 - T+D of 121, 15% chance rain, 11% cloudy, 4mph wind

I'd be very happy with weather conditions like that. I think all summer I might have had only 1-2 runs at a T+D of that or less.

Also, being 10 days out means it's time for the...

 

[DopeyBadger]

2018 Madison Mini HM Prediction Contest!

Alright posters and lurkers, let's play a prediction game! It's one of my favorite things to do pre-race. It's also something I do with everyone else on their training plans. Go through the process on deciding race day goals and pacing strategies all based around a possible finish time. I want to hear from everyone. I'd like to hear your prediction for my upcoming Madison Mini HM on August 18th. Please don't be concerned that your time prediction will have much of an impact on my chances. I could run really well, or I could crash and burn. Anything is possible. I'll be running this race blind, as is my preference, so I'll have no idea how I'm doing until the race has concluded. Here are some rules:

1) Predictions must be made after this post either in this journal, to me verbally, or on my Strava account.
2) Only one prediction per person.
3) Predictions must be in by Wednesday, August 15th end of day (Central time zone).
4) Winner will be determined by whomever is closest to the final official race time (so not Garmin 13.11 mile time). No "Price is Right" rules, which means you can go over/under on the time prediction and still win. Closest is closest.
5) Predictions can be as close as you like to another person’s guess. So, if someone says 1:45:00, you can guess 1:45:01
6) A prediction must be in time. Thus, a guess of "you'll do your best" or something similar is appreciated but not valid.
7) The tie-breaker will be the person who guessed first. So, if the two closest predictions are 10 seconds off the real time (one person 10 seconds high and the other 10 seconds low), then the person who guessed first is determined to be the winner.
8) In the event I don't finish, the race is cancelled, or I don't have an official time, then there will be no winner.
9) The winner receives a mystery item via email.

I think that covers everything. I am free to update these rules if something comes up during the prediction process. I will add any amended rules below this sentence with a time stamp as to when the rules were updated. Everyone is welcome to play! Remember it's just a friendly game amongst friends.

Some facts to help you determine my time:

Just a few fun facts about the course:

https://www.madisonminimarathon.com

-It's not flat, but it's also not that hilly.



-The race has 10 "cheer" stations. So in addition to aid stations, these act as "cheer" stations. The big difference is there is incentive for the aid stations. They are all run by high school sports teams, charities, girl scouts, businesses, etc. At the end of the race, all runners get to vote for the best "cheer" station and then that group receives a sizable donation from the race company. The groups go all out and create some crazy environments. You know me, I feed off crowd energy. This race is a good Chicago simulator.



Current Predictions

1:20:59 - @SarahDisney
1:23:45 - @bovie
1:24:27 - @Capang
1:24:42 - @Bree
1:25:13 - @KSellers88
1:25:30 - @Chaitali
1:26:10 - @Jules76126
1:26:35 - @FredtheDuck
1:26:52 - @canglim52
1:26:56 - @ZellyB
1:27:15 - @opusone
1:27:30 - @MissLiss279
1:27:49 - @steph0808
1:28:12 - @mrsg00fy
1:28:28 - @pixarmom
1:28:58 - @jennamfeo
1:29:11 - @rteetz
1:29:26 - @TeeterTots
1:29:58 - @PCFriar80
1:30:03 - @sourire
1:31:42 - @FFigawi
1:31:47 - @garneska
69 6 (1:39:06) - Gigi


Alright, that's all I've got. So what do you think?

 

[TeeterTots]

I’m going with my same prediction from your last HM

1:29:26

 

[SarahDisney]

Well, this race is right around my birthday, and I know you've been racking your brain trying to figure out what to get me for my birthday ... I think a NYC marathon qualifying time would be a good present. So I'm going with 1:20:59 (or whatever 1 second below the qualifying time is ... I think the time is 1:21, but it might be 1:23. I looked it up 5 minutes ago and forgot between now and then)

I know this is the same as my last prediction... I'm gonna keep guessing it until you get it.

 

[opusone]

Two clarifying questions: is this an all-out race for you? Are you tapering for this race?

 

[MissLiss279]

I’m going to go with...

1:27:30

 

[DopeyBadger]

Well, this race is right around my birthday, and I know you've been racking your brain trying to figure out what to get me for my birthday ... I think a NYC marathon qualifying time would be a good present. So I'm going with 1:20:59 (or whatever 1 second below the qualifying time is ... I think the time is 1:21, but it might be 1:23. I looked it up 5 minutes ago and forgot between now and then)

I know this is the same as my last prediction... I'm gonna keep guessing it until you get it.

It's 1:20:59, although that goal is saved for December for now. Not quite where I need to be to hit that yet. The December HM is flat, cold, and @mateojr will be there. Those are my very favorable conditions for an absolute peak performance.

Two clarifying questions: is this an all-out race for you? Are you tapering for this race?

It is an "A" race for me. I'm using it as a barometer for Chicago to be able to set a realistic goal for that. So I'm going 100%.

As for tapering, sort of. This week is a peak week (which isn't ideal to place the week prior to an "A" race). I think I'll take this week to about 8.5 hrs (which is below the last peak at 9.25 hrs). So I've got another 5.5 hrs in the next 4 days (1+1+1.5+2 probably), or about 63-64 miles in total. Things got screwed up because of the drop in LR mileage last Sunday. So it was suppose to be 6.5 hrs, then 7.5 hrs, then 9 hrs for the last three weeks. But it reality it has been 6.25 hrs, 7 hrs, and this week. So I don't want to go all the way to 9 hrs from 7. So I'm likely to drop back to 8-8.5 hrs. No more paced work though, as yesterday's M Tempo was the last run faster than Long Run pace (so 11 days out). I had a "potential" 3x1 scheduled for Wednesday next week, but as I'll explain below I'm deciding against it. The schedule calls for 37 miles or 4.5 hrs of running next week. Although, I will probably bump that up a touch to maybe 42-45 miles or 5-5.5 hrs (which includes a Sunday run post at 4 miles, and the 13.1 HM itself).

I'm looking to emulate the circumstances leading into the 7/18 triple paced run. That was by far the best run I've had this cycle. It occurred on a Wednesday. The week prior was my first peak (67.5 miles at 9.25 hrs), but kept 100% easy. Then an off day, then an easy day. Then the triple run. So I'm banking on a similar idea that a significant chunk of easy, while being at a higher duration, will lead to a very solid performance at a duration around 1.5 hrs.

 

[Capang]

1:24:27

 

[ZellyB]

I'm going 1:26:56

 

[opusone]

After accounting for your recent cold, HR analysis since your last marathon, expected wind and T+D conditions, terrain of race, semi-taper plan, recent workouts, motivating cheer stations, altitude of Madison, fires in California, and volcanoes in Hawaii, the computer has spit out a time of 1:27:15. No pressure, but the computer states a margin error of only +/-3 seconds... and computers don't lie.

 

[SarahDisney]

It's 1:20:59, although that goal is saved for December for now. Not quite where I need to be to hit that yet. The December HM is flat, cold, and @mateojr will be there. Those are my very favorable conditions for an absolute peak performance.

So it'll be my Hannukah present instead? I'll take it. Flat, good weather, and an awesome friend does sound like a better setup for peak performance.

I'm sticking with my guess for this one though

After accounting for your recent cold, HR analysis since your last marathon, expected wind and T+D conditions, terrain of race, semi-taper plan, recent workouts, motivating cheer stations, altitude of Madison, fires in California, and volcanoes in Hawaii, the computer has spit out a time of 1:27:15. No pressure, but the computer states a margin error of only +/-3 seconds... and computers don't lie.

I work with computers ... they lie all the time. (It's sometimes because the user inputted different information than what the computer was looking for, though)

 

[DopeyBadger]

After accounting for your recent cold, HR analysis since your last marathon, expected wind and T+D conditions, terrain of race, semi-taper plan, recent workouts, motivating cheer stations, altitude of Madison, fires in California, and volcanoes in Hawaii, the computer has spit out a time of 1:27:15. No pressure, but the computer states a margin error of only +/-3 seconds... and computers don't lie.

And if the computer lies, it knows what is coming...

 

[Chaitali]

I'm going to go with 1:25:30

 

[Jules76126]

I am going with 1:26:10

 

[avondale]

2018 Madison Mini HM Prediction Contest!

Alright posters and lurkers, let's play a prediction game! It's one of my favorite things to do pre-race. It's also something I do with everyone else on their training plans. Go through the process on deciding race day goals and pacing strategies all based around a possible finish time. I want to hear from everyone. I'd like to hear your prediction for my upcoming Madison Mini HM on August 18th. Please don't be concerned that your time prediction will have much of an impact on my chances. I could run really well, or I could crash and burn. Anything is possible. I'll be running this race blind, as is my preference, so I'll have no idea how I'm doing until the race has concluded. Here are some rules:

1) Predictions must be made after this post either in this journal, to me verbally, or on my Strava account.
2) Only one prediction per person.
3) Predictions must be in by Wednesday, August 15th end of day (Central time zone).
4) Winner will be determined by whomever is closest to the final official race time (so not Garmin 13.11 mile time). No "Price is Right" rules, which means you can go over/under on the time prediction and still win. Closest is closest.
5) Predictions can be as close as you like to another person’s guess. So, if someone says 1:45:00, you can guess 1:45:01
6) A prediction must be in time. Thus, a guess of "you'll do your best" or something similar is appreciated but not valid.
7) The tie-breaker will be the person who guessed first. So, if the two closest predictions are 10 seconds off the real time (one person 10 seconds high and the other 10 seconds low), then the person who guessed first is determined to be the winner.
8) In the event I don't finish, the race is cancelled, or I don't have an official time, then there will be no winner.
9) The winner receives a mystery item via email.

I think that covers everything. I am free to update these rules if something comes up during the prediction process. I will add any amended rules below this sentence with a time stamp as to when the rules were updated. Everyone is welcome to play! Remember it's just a friendly game amongst friends.

Some facts to help you determine my time:

Just a few fun facts about the course:

https://www.madisonminimarathon.com

-It's not flat, but it's also not that hilly.

View attachment 342566

-The race has 10 "cheer" stations. So in addition to aid stations, these act as "cheer" stations. The big difference is there is incentive for the aid stations. They are all run by high school sports teams, charities, girl scouts, businesses, etc. At the end of the race, all runners get to vote for the best "cheer" station and then that group receives a sizable donation from the race company. The groups go all out and create some crazy environments. You know me, I feed off crowd energy. This race is a good Chicago simulator.

View attachment 342567

Current Predictions

1:20:59 - @SarahDisney
1:24:27 - @Capang
1:25:30 - @Chaitali
1:26:10 - @Jules76126
1:26:56 - @ZellyB
1:27:15 - @opusone
1:27:30 - @MissLiss279
1:29:26 - @TeeterTots

Alright, that's all I've got. So what do you think?

The idea of "cheer" stations is really great! I never heard of that, but what a good idea - fun for the runners and helpful for the cheerers, hopefully.