AlienBrain
Disney Fan Since '84
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2007
It's the $1 billion question. Please provide the reasoning you used to arrive at your prediction.
I'm consulting my magic ball... July it says : )
Yeah I wouldn’t be too optimistic if the LA officials get their way with another 3 months of lockdown
I optimistically guessed September.
We haven't opened DTD yet. I think DL doesn't open until at least two months after DTD opens, and I think DTD opens in July.
Chapek didn’t seem confident about a July opening, and things always seem to happen later than expected.
My 3 year old son said yesterday that Disneyland will open when the virus is gone. I asked him when that’d be. He said Tuesday. I jokingly asked for a specific date. He said 11 24. I looked at the calendar, and sure enough, Nov 24 is a Tuesday.
I originally voted July for optimism purposes, but I'm beginning to coalesce around September. Here is my reasoning:
1) Enhanced UI (that +$600 from the federal government for unemployment) expires ~July 25. For a lot of CMs the park, the combination of this + standard unemployment from California makes it more lucrative to stay at home for many (the equivalent of $26/hr give or take, i'm estimating). It would actually be a disservice for TWDC to recall employees to make less (and is a topic many businesses are struggling with).2) As that period ends, you can recall your employees in August to make preparations for reopening the park -- they would spend all of August applying signs/stickers/paint, augment rides and shopping, and most importantly.... training.3) Schools would be back in session at that point, another sticking point for bringing back CMs who have children/childcare issues.4) Demand would be lower as kids are back in school (as stated above by @cruisehopeful )So I guess that's that.... I'd say July for non-Disney vendors at DtD, August for DtD businesses o/o by TWDC, and September for parks.
Not 2021 because I want that dang UBS analyst that everyone and their mama quotes to be wrong