Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

What site lists most of the active listings?
I do not want to risk a filter violation so I will not list the name/address, overall they include the 2 largest sites, this forum's sponsor and 2 smaller re sellers that I can reasonably time or sequence date their posting. The compiling site appears to be attached to one of the larger site
 
I think it would show good will (on Disney's part) on going back to the days when everyone would receive a blue card.
As a resale owner, I'd be happy to accept the full package of benefits/perks. But I'd be shocked if they provide all perks to resale purchasers. That would remove a substantial incentive for buying direct. They can exercise ROFR to re-acquire contracts at resale prices and immediately mark them up to direct pricing. But unless they ROFR everything and the only way for new owners to purchase is direct, they would lose a lot of direct sales from people who are only willing to pay a hefty premium to obtain those perks.
 
As a resale owner, I'd be happy to accept the full package of benefits/perks. But I'd be shocked if they provide all perks to resale purchasers. That would remove a substantial incentive for buying direct. They can exercise ROFR to re-acquire contracts at resale prices and immediately mark them up to direct pricing. But unless they ROFR everything and the only way for new owners to purchase is direct, they would lose a lot of direct sales from people who are only willing to pay a hefty premium to obtain those perks.
I agree. This would definitely hurt their ability to sell direct. I can't see any logical reason for them doing that.
 
Not to mention, you think Moonlight Magic is hard to get now?

They would probably reduce the perks.
 


I'm watching VGF and there is TONS on the market right now in the range of 155-160, which honestly I would have bought at three months ago. BUT, even with such a huge drop, this isn't even down to 2017 prices.

None of them are moving, I think VGF still has room to fall, and I'm not in a hurry.

Yes think it would be foolish to buy right now , not only are prices set to fall, maybe significantly, those new points will be much harder to use for actual rooms due to all of the points out there competing for rooms due to Covid19
 
I seen some AKL 50-100 points for $115-$120 today. Not sure how much of a dip that is.

I am not sure that means too much. They may have just priced it wrong as that is the or slightly higher than a normal contract price point.
 


bookwormde - where are you getting this data ?
ET :darth:
Based on the user name I'm going to guess that they are getting the data from books. :)
Just found a $137 CCV contract. I wasn't really thinking CCV, but it might be a good option. I wasn't expecting that low a price at this point...

EDIT: and another at $139
A smart strategy when you are predicting a decline in prices is to price today based on what you think prices are going to be in six months. Because in six months when everyone is feeling the pinch, that is going to cause prices to be lower than what we are predicting them to be in six months. Simply put, this is a glimpse into our future and a sign of where things are moving.

If this thing extends more than a few months (I don’t think it will), Disney will not have the cash flow to manage the parks, and won’t fire sale assets (assets would be pennies on the dollar in that environment and with the needed speed). They will either be an acquisition target, receive a bail-out or go the bankruptcy route. Again, I think bankruptcy is unlikely and you can argue it’s mutually exclusive, but if the park is closed for additional months that would mean the total economy is closed for additional months and that would mean an economic apocalypse that would put prices very low and and Disney on the verge of bankruptcy. Just my opinion...
I think you are saying things that might not be entirely accurate. Sure, Disney is getting hurt by the park closures which could theoretically extend through the summer and into the fall. However, they are a more diversified company than they ever have been. Additionally, they have about six billion dollars of cash on hand and just raised another seven billion dollars in debt. This is not something you do if you think you're going to be closed for two months. They have positioned themselves for multiple scenarios far worse than what we are seeing now. I think that the worst-case scenario for Disney is that they are not profitable for a few years as they dig their way out of this. There are worse things. And while possible, I think that acquisition, bailout, or bankruptcy are outside the range of likely outcomes.
 
Based on the user name I'm going to guess that they are getting the data from books. :)

A smart strategy when you are predicting a decline in prices is to price today based on what you think prices are going to be in six months. Because in six months when everyone is feeling the pinch, that is going to cause prices to be lower than what we are predicting them to be in six months. Simply put, this is a glimpse into our future and a sign of where things are moving.


I think you are saying things that might not be entirely accurate. Sure, Disney is getting hurt by the park closures which could theoretically extend through the summer and into the fall. However, they are a more diversified company than they ever have been. Additionally, they have about six billion dollars of cash on hand and just raised another seven billion dollars in debt. This is not something you do if you think you're going to be closed for two months. They have positioned themselves for multiple scenarios far worse than what we are seeing now. I think that the worst-case scenario for Disney is that they are not profitable for a few years as they dig their way out of this. There are worse things. And while possible, I think that acquisition, bailout, or bankruptcy are outside the range of likely outcomes.
Wasn't the new debt they raised to replace debt that was coming due?
 
DH and I decided that we would buy in if prices fell to 2016 prices, basically less than $100. That's if neither of us gets laid off.
 
Yes think it would be foolish to buy right now , not only are prices set to fall, maybe significantly, those new points will be much harder to use for actual rooms due to all of the points out there competing for rooms due to Covid19

I want a stripped contract anyway, so I'm not too concerned about that. But yea, those fully loaded contracts are looking less appealing right about now.
 
Wasn't the new debt they raised to replace debt that was coming due?
basically. Guess it depends on how you look at it. They could use all the money they are not paying contractors for all the work they not doing to pay debt, then use the new capital to pay them when work starts up - just an example - but its really a bookkeeping and semantic argument. Tomato - Tom-ah-to

They certainly didn't issue the bonds to fund new capital expenses! So yes, debt service (and other liabilities)
 
Today Disney also moved to file for the new Fed loan programs. Granted we have no idea how much they will be asking for from the US government.
 
Today Disney also moved to file for the new Fed loan programs. Granted we have no idea how much they will be asking for from the US government.

Is there actual news that the "filed" for the loans? The only article I saw said a travel industry lobbying group was urging for loans to their members including DIS.
 
You ready for this? Back in 2012 I passed on an AKV contract with three years worth of points at $63 per point because I didn't want to pay more than $60. :sad2:
To put this in perspective; I pined over a few contracts as recently as 2013-2015, even saw an SSR contract for ~$65/Point that I really though about, but at that time I was unable to make the purchase (based on doing cash only). I finally got the cash to pull the trigger this February, at what I thought was a really good price ($89/Point), but who knows if maybe the $65/Point will be back in the near future ?? No regrets - (I'm grateful that I have the $$ now to do it) I just want to be able to use them, and can't wait for WDW to be open again!
ET :darth:
 
I do not want to risk a filter violation so I will not list the name/address, overall they include the 2 largest sites, this forum's sponsor and 2 smaller re sellers that I can reasonably time or sequence date their posting. The compiling site appears to be attached to one of the larger site

The DIS rule is to post the link to the website and allow the filter to work. You only get in trouble if you try and circumvent the filter.
 
During the recession 10 (2011ish) years ago, SSR was as low as $35-45, BWV as low as $50-60, AKL probably $60-70 andBLT about $70-80.... you get the picture. Will this be worse? Who knows but those were the prices back then. The prices have been a bit high IMO since about 2017/2018....

How much was VGC back then?

LAX
 

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