Where is bottom?

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Well, I got one of those $80 OKW contracts, but that will be 6 weeks ago tomorrow. Doesn’t look like any are going for any less, and a few are a good bit higher (even new listings), so…

I do think that dues season caused us to hit at least a temporary low. Sellers are the most motivated right before dues are due. I’d guess that we’re not going to test those lows again until the next dues season rolls around, if the market doesn’t recover before then.

 

[SL6827]

If it is not the same association, I wonder if RIV will be the only WDW based DVC to get those restrictions? That would seem odd.

 

[E2ME2]

I own at 4 Resorts (AKV/BCV/BWV*/SSR), and only interested in more add-ons at BCV and/or BWV right now.
*-awaiting closing on or before 3/27
I took page 1 of the ROFR thread (thanks Pangyal) and did a very non-scientific analyses, putting all the PASSED posts (as of 10:40am - 3/21/23) into scatter diagrams, to look for patterns/clusters/outliers.....
Based on my crude assessment of the data:
AKV Resale is clustering around $100PP (Outliers: Low=$90 High=$135)
BCV Resale is clustering between $130-$135PP (Outliers: Low=$117.50 High=$152)
BWV Resale is clustering between $110-$115PP (Outliers: Low=$90.68 High=$140)

 

[Mexacajun]

I own at 4 Resorts (AKV/BCV/BWV*/SSR), and only interested in more add-ons at BCV and/or BWV right now.
*-awaiting closing on or before 3/27
I took page 1 of the ROFR thread (thanks Pangyal) and did a very non-scientific analyses, putting all the PASSED posts (as of 10:40am - 3/21/23) into scatter diagrams, to look for patterns/clusters/outliers.....
Based on my crude assessment of the data:
AKV Resale is clustering around $100PP (Outliers: Low=$90 High=$135)
BCV Resale is clustering between $130-$135PP (Outliers: Low=$117.50 High=$152)
BWV Resale is clustering between $110-$115PP (Outliers: Low=$90.68 High=$140)View attachment 748010

Great info and well done. Maybe would tighten up more if you removed contracts smaller than 100points.

 

[Chili327]

I own at 4 Resorts (AKV/BCV/BWV*/SSR), and only interested in more add-ons at BCV and/or BWV right now.
*-awaiting closing on or before 3/27
I took page 1 of the ROFR thread (thanks Pangyal) and did a very non-scientific analyses, putting all the PASSED posts (as of 10:40am - 3/21/23) into scatter diagrams, to look for patterns/clusters/outliers.....
Based on my crude assessment of the data:
AKV Resale is clustering around $100PP (Outliers: Low=$90 High=$135)
BCV Resale is clustering between $130-$135PP (Outliers: Low=$117.50 High=$152)
BWV Resale is clustering between $110-$115PP (Outliers: Low=$90.68 High=$140)

I too did some similar math (and averaging) to decide what to offer, & it worked out perfectly.!!

 

[Chili327]

Where do you think DVC resort resale point costs will be? Here are some of my guesses:

VB $49 a point
HH $55 a point
AUL $80 a point
OKW $80 a point
AKV $83 a point
Riviera $118 a point
VGF $138 a point

Is this too “sky is falling”?

Predictions ^^ / Actuals vv

I saw these pass on the ROFR board this quarter:
VB 46
HH 56
AUL 90
OKW80
AKV 90
RIV 120
VGF 138

These are close to the original guesses to begin this thread!

Not too far off.

 

[tom1944]

I have been tracking the BLT and AKV sales on the Orange County site and BLT has most sales over $150 and AKV has most around $125

I have a check coming soon and once I get it I will track them consistently for a month or so and actually keep a spreadsheet rather than rely on my old timer memory.

 

[bravo2zero]

I have been tracking the BLT and AKV sales on the Orange County site and BLT has most sales over $150 and AKV has most around $125

I have a check coming soon and once I get it I will track them consistently for a month or so and actually keep a spreadsheet rather than rely on my old timer memory.

The lag from agreement to recording is typically about a month based on this thread right? I wonder if there is a way to try and track some of the sales identified through Orange County back to reports from users on here to get a feel for how far apart today's market is from the recorded prices because things seemed to have moved quickly downward in the last few weeks even.

 

[tom1944]

The lag from agreement to recording is typically about a month based on this thread right? I wonder if there is a way to try and track some of the sales identified through Orange County back to reports from users on here to get a feel for how far apart today's market is from the recorded prices because things seemed to have moved quickly downward in the last few weeks even.

Prices seemed to have stabilized from what I can tell.

I made a purchase at SSR with my offer coming February 3. I looked at the deeds recorded today (mine was recorded last week). About half the per point price was above mine and about half were lower.

I figure I will do a more detailed look after April 15.

I have also identified some of the deals mentions on this thread so my opinion I would accept what people post as accurate. There are significantly more deeds recorded than discussed here though.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

The complete lack of ROFR means that we will still the occasional outlier go through (SSR at $80), but the mean prices do definitely appear to have bottomed out. Prices are certainly being listed for slightly higher than they were a month ago right now.

 

[bravo2zero]

Prices seemed to have stabilized from what I can tell.

I made a purchase at SSR with my offer coming February 3. I looked at the deeds recorded today (mine was recorded last week). About half the per point price was above mine and about half were lower.

I figure I will do a more detailed look after April 15.

I have also identified some of the deals mentions on this thread so my opinion I would accept what people post as accurate. There are significantly more deeds recorded than discussed here though.

That's good info regardless. Of course there are many deeds recorded that are not on here. I wouldn't even be surprised if you find the ones reported on here represent many of the better deals you might find given the level of information here.

It's very promising you could identify deals on there that have been reported on here in the past.

 

[Cfabar1]

It amazes me that there is still so much perceived value even with a lack of ROFR that this is being maintained! It really speaks to the value proposition that most see with Disney resort vacations and the value of DVC.

 

[tom1944]

It amazes me that there is still so much perceived value even with a lack of ROFR that this is being maintained! It really speaks to the value proposition that most see with Disney resort vacations and the value of DVC.

More emotional purchases than most products

 

[DonMacGregor]

That's good info regardless. Of course there are many deeds recorded that are not on here. I wouldn't even be surprised if you find the ones reported on here represent many of the better deals you might find given the level of information here.

It's very promising you could identify deals on there that have been reported on here in the past.

This is probably a point that isn't made more often. The DIS Boards represents the most educated and sophisticated of buyers, and therefore the cadre of buyers most likely to successfully pursue and secure the best deals possible, whereas the general population (even those aware of the resale market) isn't bringing to bear the same level of research and specific knowledge and likely isn't appreciating the same fruits of negotiation.

 

[jpwilsoninc]

Everyone here calling for a drastic drop in prices also needs to argue that hotel stay prices at Disney will drop drastically. And I just don’t see that happening. The 2 are historically highly correlated.

 

[TinkB278]

How are people seeing the price per point on the comptroller website? All I can see is the total amount for the deed. Does that not include any extra costs?

 

[tom1944]

How are people seeing the price per point on the comptroller website? All I can see is the total amount for the deed. Does that not include any extra costs?

You take the deed tax and divide it by .007

You then take that amount and divide it by the number of points

There are several factors you cannot know.

Who paid closing

How loaded was the contract

I have been looking into the seller’s original purchase to see what they paid and how long ago the purchased.

 

[Herding_Cats]

How are people seeing the price per point on the comptroller website? All I can see is the total amount for the deed. Does that not include any extra costs?

you divide the price by 0.007 to get the purchase price, and then divide that by the number of points in the contract.

 

[TinkB278]

So you aren’t getting the price per point they offered the sellers then without having a way of knowing who paid closing? Am I understanding that correctly?

 

[tom1944]

No you are getting the price they paid per point.

You are not getting who paid closing costs or if there were points available from a prior year.

It is valuable information but it is not perfect information.

It is no different than using the home sale comparisons when buying a home. You do not know everything about the individual contract.

To me the number of banked points is a bigger issue than closing costs because I believe the majority of the time they are paid by the buyer.