“ The economy is akin to Wile E Coyote walking off the side of the cliff not realizing there’s no solid foundation below until he looks down.”
1) Of course a severe economic environment would impact prices of everything, but your statement above is 100% opinion and editorialization, regardless of DVC pricing.
2) The vast majority of DVC cost are dues, not the upfront buy in.
3) Short term fluctuation of prices doesn’t impact buy and use members.
4) I would argue that buying DVC makes going on vacation more likely during an economic downturn because airline tickets are cheap and your accommodations are mostly paid for. Also, less renters means more availability at hard to book resorts.
1) It’s a message board; almost everything everyone types is opinion. What facts are presented are usually followed by opinionated commentary, which is exactly what I did above.
2) Ah, but what matters is the EFFECTIVE cost. What’s the average DVC ownership—10-12 years? What’s the average cost of a resale contract—$150pp? What are the average dues, $8-9? So the effective cost of DVC ownership for the average buyer is majority going to be the contract price. And all of this is rather meaningless in a recession. I’m not sure telling someone, “Hey, I know things are bad now, but remember, the cost of this contract may be steep now, but if you hold it for a generation, the dues catch up. So really this $50,000 today isn’t that big of a deal when looking at 2050 and you’ve spent an additional $90,000 in cumulative dues…”
3) The entire point is speculating on what direction the price of DVC contracts goes. If I can wait a year for a 20% or more discount, I just might. If a contract drops $20-30pp, it’s rather headscratching when people loathe high dues resorts when we’re talking about a few bucks, yet paradoxically comfortable with paying an effective $30-40 due because you had to buy a contract today vs. wait a year.
4) Travel declines during economic downturns, and that’s precisely why you see discounts on rental cars/airfare/lodging/etc. The positive about DVC is the theory of “locking in today’s rate” with the fear Disney will charge $3000/night at a standard Deluxe studio in 20 years (not going to happen). The same works in reverse: buying DVC today locks you in at current levels when hotel discounts arrive in the downturn, which will also feed on lowering DVC prices.
All I’m saying is DVC is going to be on sale for many reasons as the year goes on. Some people don’t care if they overpay by thousands/tens of thousands because they have to buy and go/use this year. If I think I can save 20% or more by waiting 6 months for a big purchase like this, I think I would. Just because cumulative dues overtake my contract buy in in 20 years doesn’t really mean I’m anxious to overpay today when I can wait a couple quarters.
