Which site is more accurate, Kenny the Pirate or Touring Plans?

[TNBishop]

Thanks Kenny. Do you have numerical crowd scores for the parks, or is the projected data too rough?

 

[js]

Hi.

I am planning a trip for a co-worker and her dh, both in 60s. The last time they went to Disney was when their children were small. I'm in charge of booking, planning and dining.

In looking at Crowd Calendars, it looks like TP and Kenny have different ideas of what parks, what days.
For instance, TP crowd calendar has MK as best day for January 8 but Kenny has Epcot (and MK worst day). TP has crowds at 5-9 I believe that week, and Kenny has "light crowds" January 8-11 (they head home on January 12).

I gave them a list of Deluxe resorts to choose from (well I gave them Poly, GF, BW and YC) and they chose BW. I purchased three-day hoppers since they will be so close to Epcot and go there at night for dinner (two nights, possibly three).

Would you/do you go by TP or Kenny? They will do as I tell them and get to RD early, etc., but I rather have them at the best parks.

Thank you all so much!

 

[js]

After six trips I've learned a few rules we live by:

- Arrive early, regardless of EMH, the first hour or two at any park is relatively quiet.
- Avoid EMH days as the draw bigger crowds or arrive early and be prepared to hop to another park.
- Go the day after the park has had a EMH.
- Use FastPass starting late morning into early afternoon, that allows you access rides when the parks are at their busiest and finish your FastPasses early enough to pick up the 4th FastPass for sometime later in the day.
- Understand what rides are most popular and what rides you can access all day. If you are on the Carousel of Progress or Small World at 10:00 am you have a bad plan.
- Do not accept a wait time of more than an hour, as much as you might want to experience a certain attraction few things are worth waiting over an hour to do.
- RELAX, you are on vacation in the most fun place in the world.

We have been many, many times and this is what we do, although I do go to MK EMH in the mornings (well, Epcot too LOL).
We went between Christmas and New Years last year and I swear we didn't wait in one line, REALLY. My family of 4 has kids 19 and 23.
We understood the crowd level. We made sure we were at RD about 50-60 minutes prior to opening.
Our FPs started approximately 10 am. We left by/after lunch and returned to MK one evening to do the CoP, PeopleMover, Mickey's Phila and see
the fireworks. Same for Epcot. Went back in evenings for dining. My dd even rode Everest twice. Actually, we rode many attractions, including TT and Buzz twice.

I believe what you wrote is really the absolute best advice, although I do think going to MK for Early EMH and leaving by/after lunch can be a magical day, even over Christmas.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

You should take into account this stuff is usually guess work and opinion. And all relative.

 

[hllb]

You should take into account this stuff is usually guess work and opinion. And all relative.

It's really not. They both use statistical models. You can do a linear regression of past data to extrapolate the weight of each variable you study.

 

[hllb]

Hi.

I am planning a trip for a co-worker and her dh, both in 60s. The last time they went to Disney was when their children were small. I'm in charge of booking, planning and dining.

In looking at Crowd Calendars, it looks like TP and Kenny have different ideas of what parks, what days.
For instance, TP crowd calendar has MK as best day for January 8 but Kenny has Epcot (and MK worst day). TP has crowds at 5-9 I believe that week, and Kenny has "light crowds" January 8-11 (they head home on January 12).

I gave them a list of Deluxe resorts to choose from (well I gave them Poly, GF, BW and YC) and they chose BW. I purchased three-day hoppers since they will be so close to Epcot and go there at night for dinner (two nights, possibly three).

Would you/do you go by TP or Kenny? They will do as I tell them and get to RD early, etc., but I rather have them at the best parks.

Thank you all so much!

It's possible that what TP shows as closer to 5 for crowds could be a "low" on KtP's site. But, I know that KtP always rates Mondays at MK as higher. His model finds more significance in the day of the week for MK than TP's model does. For the overall crowd levels, I would go with TP on this one for sure. The first half of January (through MLK) has become a higher crowd level than the later part of the month. I would be surprised if the crowds were low that week (though 9 seems high - perhaps there's some event that day at that park?)

 

[FlightlessDuck]

It's really not. They both use statistical models. You can do a linear regression of past data to extrapolate the weight of each variable you study.

But what data? Does Disney release daily admission numbers?

 

[hllb]

But what data? Does Disney release daily admission numbers?

While I don't know all their data sources, they certainly have access to the database of fast passes, dining reservations, etc. So I do think Disney gives them access to quite a bit of data. Both of the sites also have people in the park pretty much every day for first hand monitoring. While that is an "after the fact" kind of thing, it definitely allows them to refine their models and I do think they do so on a frequent basis.

 

[StageTek]

I don't use crowd calendars .. I don't see the point as there is just too many unknown factors to accurately determine crowds

I feel the crowd calendars are like the weather report. They give you a general idea, but you really won't know until the day arrives.

There you go. You DO see the point. You look at the weather report so you get a general idea of what to expect. So do I. I look at the local weather report and if it's going to be cooler towards the end of the week I wait to go out to work in the yard and do indoor work on the hotter days. The point of the various crowd calendars is to give people a general idea of what to expect. I use them to make a general judgment on when to go. That's the point.

 

[KirbyLouWho]

Jumping in here. Can anyone weigh in on their preferences between KtP & TP when it comes to lines? Our last trip a couple years ago I subbed to Kenny for character info (spectacular, sir, thanks for the hard work) & TP for lines (which I also loved very much). Now that I've been a few more times as an adult I feel a bit more confident in knowing there where's how's & when's of some things, I'm thinking of only subbing to one or the other for the upcoming year but finding myself torn on which way to go. I would very much appreciate anyone's thoughts/opinions/insights.

 

[tlmadden73]

There you go. You DO see the point. You look at the weather report so you get a general idea of what to expect. So do I. I look at the local weather report and if it's going to be cooler towards the end of the week I wait to go out to work in the yard and do indoor work on the hotter days. The point of the various crowd calendars is to give people a general idea of what to expect. I use them to make a general judgment on when to go. That's the point.

Oh I get it, but from the sound of some people, they seem to want (or hope) these things are accurate.

I am just saying there is no magic fairy that will help you plan you vacation for the "perfect" low attendance time.
Everyone wants low attendance, it is why things like the parties and the Early Morning magic are so popular.
Yet a ton of people don't care about crowds (otherwise the parks wouldn't be ... crowded).

My other point is that these things can be self-fulfilling. If a crowd calendar says October 1-6 will be "low or moderate" crowds .. well wouldn't a LOT of people plan for a vacation during that time, making that crowd prediction somewhat pointless?

My point is like the weather report .. it's not like you can truly know what October of 2018 will be like (weather OR Disney crowds), so just so you shouldn't really plan around the weather that far in advance, just plan your vacation when it is good for your family.

I'm not dissing those who use them, I'm just saying people shouldn't get their hopes up (or down) based on what a crowd calendar says. Some take too much stock in them.

 

[cigar95]

My other point is that these things can be self-fulfilling. If a crowd calendar says October 1-6 will be "low or moderate" crowds .. well wouldn't a LOT of people plan for a vacation during that time, making that crowd prediction somewhat pointless?

Len has been saying for years that he longs for a time that TouringPlans has become so powerful that his predictions will sway the crowds enough to make a difference. I think his best guess is that maybe 5% of the guests in a park are using crowd calendar and touring plan information.

My point is like the weather report .. it's not like you can truly know what October of 2018 will be like (weather OR Disney crowds), so just so you shouldn't really plan around the weather that far in advance, just plan your vacation when it is good for your family.

And here you identify another thing that is key about the plans. If TouringPlans shows an expected wait of 30 minutes, that doesn't mean anyone should get in line at 1242 and expect to board their ride vehicle at 1312. It's intended to mean that unless something out of the ordinary happens (ride breakdowns, bad weather yesterday, . . . . ), you're likely to wait for 23 minutes or 36 minutes, but probably not 4 minutes or 90 minutes.

I'm not dissing those who use them, I'm just saying people shouldn't get their hopes up (or down) based on what a crowd calendar says. Some take too much stock in them.

And that's why following a touring plan almost inevitably goes awry somewhere - the waits they assume are averages, but on any given day they'll be different.

 

[StageTek]

Oh I get it,

Sorry. When you said "I don't see the point" I thought you didn't see the point of using of using crowd calendars.

We have a different opinion. I like to plan my trips around the crown calendars rather than plan our vacation when it is good for my family. It's worked well for me in the past. But thanks for your warning.

 

[Ladyfish77]

Q. What programming language do pirates use?
A. "The C"

I thought the answer was:
"rrrrrrrrrrrrr"
(statistically speaking)

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

I subscribed to Touring plans and was looking at dates to visit Mk. I had picked a Wednesday with extra magic hours in the evening. Touring Plans said that the crowd levels should be really low. I just checked the same date on Kenny the pirate and that site says it is the worst park to visit. Which is more accurate? My adrs date is coming up and I don't want to be visiting mk at a time when crowd levels are insane. Thanks

I used both on my two trips last year and I would say Touring Plans. They are both selling a service, but TP is truly offering advice where KTP is like "hey, buy my app". TP offers valuable advice where KTP gives quick 3 word replies or says "buy my app". I joined both of their FB groups and TPs is helpful where I found KTP to be curt and seem bothered when replying. Also, I find that TP seems to be a little more level and unbias in their details because they are coming from various sources within their company where KTP replies are him and have a know-it-all tone to them. Just my opinion.

 

[Micca]

I am just saying there is no magic fairy

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

But what data? Does Disney release daily admission numbers?

I doubt Disney releases that data to people outside of the company. What benefit would that be to them as a company?

 

[Runnsally]

It’s always seemed to me that Touring Plans has a pretty robust data collection arm, while the other site is based more on the opinions of a single swashbuckling park enthusiast.

 

[Soldier's*Sweeties]

I’ve never even looked at Kenny the Pirate. I’ve used other services by TP and liked them. Their crowd predictions for last June seemed pretty accurate though IMO.

 

[kennythepirate]

Funny thing
No one knows
Serious answer
No one knows which is better
Kenny thinks parks with EMH are more crowded, in his experience (I lean to his opinion)
Touring Plans doesn't subscribe to the same theory.
I'm not sure there is any way to know who is right and who is wrong

I'll just chime in that statistics prove that EMH parks are more busy